5-year Cancer-specific Survival Research Articles

Prognosis Analysis of Additional Surgical Treatment for High-Risk T1 Colorectal Cancer Patients After Endoscopic Resection

To analyze the effect of additional surgery on the survival and prognosis of high-risk T1 colorectal cancer patients who have undergone endoscopic resection. The clinical data of patients with high-risk T1 colorectal cancer were retrospectively collected. The patients were divided into the endoscopic resection (ER) plus additional surgical resection (SR) group, or the ER+SR group, and the ER group according to whether additional SR were performed after ER. Baseline data of the patients and information on the location, size, and postoperative pathology of the lesions were collected. Patient survival-related information was obtained through the medical record system and patient follow-up. The primary outcome indicators were the overall survival and the colorectal cancer-specific survival. Univariate Cox regression analysis was used to screen survival-related risk factors and hazard ratio (HR) was calculated. Multivariate Cox regression analysis was used to analyze the independent influencing factors. The data of 109 patients with T1 high-risk colorectal cancer were collected, with 52 patients in the ER group and 57 patients in the ER+SR group. The mean age of patients in the ER group was higher than that in the ER+SR group (65.21 years old vs. 60.54 years old, P=0.035), and the median endoscopic measurement of the size of lesions in the ER group was slightly lower than that in the ER+SR group (2.00 cm vs. 2.50 cm, P=0.026). The median follow-up time was 30.00 months, with the maximum follow-up time being 119 months, in the ER+SR group and there were 4 patients deaths, including one colorectal cancer-related death. Whereas the median follow-up time in the ER group was 28.50 months, with the maximum follow-up time being 78.00 months, and there were 4 patient deaths, including one caused by colorectal cancer. The overall 5-year cumulative survival rates in the ER+SR group and the ER group were 94.44% and 81.65%, respectively, and the cancer-specific 5-year cumulative survival rates in the ER+SR group and the ER group were 97.18% and 98.06%, respectively. The Kaplan-Meier analysis showed no significant difference in the overall cumulative survival or cancer-specific cumulative survival between the ER+SR and the ER groups. Univariate Cox regression analysis showed that age and the number of reviews were the risk factors of overall survival (HR=1.16 and HR=0.27, respectively), with age identified as an independent risk factor of overall survival in the multivariate Cox regression analysis (HR=1.10, P=0.045). For T1 colorectal cancer patients with high risk factors after ER, factors such as patient age and their personal treatment decisions should not be overlooked. In clinical practice, additional caution should be exercised in decision-making concerning additional surgery.

The development of a prediction model based on deep learning for prognosis prediction of gastrointestinal stromal tumor: a SEER-based study

Accurately predicting the prognosis of Gastrointestinal stromal tumor (GIST) patients is an important task. The goal of this study was to create and assess models for GIST patients' survival patients using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program (SEER) database based on the three different deep learning models. Four thousand five hundred thirty-eight patients were enrolled in this study and divided into training and test cohorts with a 7:3 ratio; the training cohort was used to develop three different models, including Cox regression, RSF, and DeepSurv model. Test cohort was used to evaluate model performance using c-index, Brier scores, calibration, and the area under the curve (AUC). The net benefits at risk score stratification of GIST patients based on the optimal model was compared with the traditional AJCC staging system using decision curve analysis (DCA). The clinical usefulness of risk score stratification compared to AJCC tumor staging was further assessed using the Net Reclassification Index (NRI) and Integrated Discrimination Improvement (IDI). The DeepSurv model predicted cancer-specific survival (CSS) in GIST patients showed a higher c-index (0.825), lower Brier scores (0.142), and greater AUC of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis (1-year ROC:0.898; 3-year:0.853, and 5-year ROC: 0.856). The calibration plots demonstrated good agreement between the DeepSurv model's forecast and actual results. The NRI values ( training cohort: 0.425 for 1-year, 0.329 for 3-year and 0.264 for 5-year CSS prediction; test cohort:0.552 for 1-year,0.309 for 3-year and 0.255 for 5-year CSS prediction) and IDI (training cohort: 0.130 for 1-year,0.141 for 5-year and 0.155 for 10-year CSS prediction; test cohort: 0.154 for 1-year,0.159 for 3-year and 0.159 for 5-year CSS prediction) indicated that the risk score stratification performed significantly better than the AJCC staging alone (P < 0.001). DCA demonstrated the risk score stratification as more clinically beneficial and discriminatory than AJCC staging. Finally, an interactive native web-based prediction tool was constructed for the survival prediction of GIST patients. This study established a high-performance prediction model for projecting GIST patients based on deep learning, which has advantages in predicting each person's prognosis and risk stratification.

Preoperative serum cholinesterase as a prognostic factor in patients with colorectal cancer.

Serum cholinesterase (ChE) levels are considered to reflect nutritional status. Although ChE has been well documented as a prognostic factor for some cancers, no clear consensus on its use for colorectal cancer (CRC) has been reached. The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between preoperative serum ChE and postoperative long-term prognosis in CRC patients. A total of 1053 CRC patients who underwent curative surgery were included in this study. The correlations between the preoperative ChE value and overall survival (OS) or cancer-specific survival (CSS) were assessed. By dividing patients into two groups according to their ChE value, OS and CSS were compared between the groups. Multivariate analysis revealed that the continuous ChE value was a significant predictor of OS (hazard ratio, 0.996; 95% CI, 0.993-0.998; p = 0.002) and CSS (hazard ratio, 0.994; 95% CI, 0.991-0.998; p = 0.001), independent of other variables. The low-ChE (≤234 U/L) group had a significantly poorer prognosis than the high-ChE (>234 U/L) group for both OS (5-year OS for low ChE and high ChE: 79.8% and 93.3%, respectively; p < 0.001) and CSS (5-year CSS for low ChE and high ChE: 84.8% and 95.6%, respectively; p < 0.001). Lower preoperative serum ChE levels are a predictive factor of poor prognosis for CRC patients. As serum ChE levels can be measured quickly and evaluated easily, ChE could become a useful marker for predicting the postoperative long-term outcomes of CRC patients.

Long-term outcomes of endoscopic therapy versus surgical resection for 2–5 cm gastric gastrointestinal stromal tumors: A population-based comparative study

BackgroundEndoscopic therapy (ET) of gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GIST) has become a viable treatment. We intended to compare long-term outcomes of ET versus surgical resection for 2–5 cm GIST using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. MethodsA multicenter retrospective study was conducted to compare the long-term outcomes of patients treated with ET and surgical resection for GIST. The multivariate Cox proportional hazards models were used to identify predictors for patients survival. To balance the clinicopathologic characteristics, a 1:1 propensity score matching (PSM) was utilized. ResultsA total of 749 patients with 2–5 cm GIST were enrolled, of whom 113 accepted ET and 636 underwent surgical resection. Before PSM, there was no significant difference in long-term outcomes between ET and surgical resection (5-year overall survival (OS): 93.5% vs. 91.6%, P=0.374; 5-year cancer-specific survival (CSS): 99.1% vs. 96.5%, P=0.546; 10-year OS: 71.1% vs. 78.2%, P=0.374; 10-year CSS: 93.6% vs. 92.7%, P=0.546). After adjusting for the relevant variables using the multivariable Cox proportional hazards models, we observed that the ET and surgical resection groups were similar in OS (HR 0.726, 95%CI 0.457-1.153, P=0.175) and CSS (HR 1.286, 95%CI 0.474-3.488, P=0.621). After PSM, the long-term OS and CSS of patients with 2–5 cm GIST after ET and surgical resection were comparable. ConclusionsWe found that the long-term survival of patients with 2–5 cm gastric GIST after ET and surgical resection were comparable. Further high-quality studies are needed to confirm the role of ET in 2–5 cm GIST.

Impact of Alcian blue and periodic acid Schiff expression on the prognosis of gastric signet ring cell carcinoma.

The Alcian blue (AB) and periodic acid Schiff (PAS) stains are representative mucus markers in gastric signet ring cell carcinoma (SRCC). They are low-cost special staining methods used to detect acidic mucus and neutral mucus, respectively. However, the clinical importance of the special combined AB and PAS stain is unclear. To investigate AB expression, PAS expression and the AB-to-PAS (A/P) ratio in gastric SRCC patients and to assess patient prognosis. Paraffin-embedded sections from 83 patients with gastric SRCC were stained with AB and PAS, and signet ring cell positivity was assessed quantitatively. Immunohistochemical staining for Ki67, protein 53 (P53) and human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2) was performed simultaneously. The cancer-specific survival (CSS) rate was estimated via Kaplan-Meier analysis. Cox proportional hazards models were used for univariate and multivariate survival analyses. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis revealed that the 3-year CSS rate was significantly greater in the high-PAS-expression subgroup than in the low-PAS-expression subgroup (P < 0.001). The 3-year CSS rate in the A/P ≤ 0.5 group was significantly greater than that in the A/P > 0.5 group (P = 0.042). Univariate Cox regression analysis revealed that the factors affecting prognosis included tumor diameter, lymph node metastasis, vessel carcinoma embolus, tumor stage, the A/P ratio and the expression of Ki67, P53 and the PAS. Cox multivariate regression analysis confirmed that low PAS expression [hazard ratio (HR) = 3.809, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.563-9.283, P = 0.003] and large tumor diameter (HR = 2.761, 95%CI: 1.086-7.020, P = 0.033) were independent risk factors for poor prognosis. A/P > 0.5 is potentially a risk factor for prognosis, and low PAS expression is an independent risk factor in the prognosis of gastric SRCC. PAS expression and the A/P ratio could help in predicting the clinical prognosis of patients with SRCC.

Radical prostatectomy versus radiotherapy as local therapy for primary tumors in patients with oligometastatic prostate cancer.

We compared radical prostatectomy (RP) and radiotherapy (RT) as local therapies for primary tumors and examined their associations with survival outcomes and urinary tract complications in patients with oligometastatic prostate cancer (omPC). We evaluated the data of 85 patients diagnosed with omPC who underwent local therapy for primary tumors between January 2008 and December 2018. Of the 85 patients, 31 underwent prostate RT, while 54 underwent RP. Oligometastatic disease was defined as the presence of fewer than five metastatic lesions without visceral metastasis. Urinary tract complications, progression-free survival (PFS), cancer-specific survival (CSS), and overall survival (OS) were evaluated using the Kaplan-Meier method and Cox regression analyses. Patients treated with RT showed higher prostate-specific antigen levels. There was no significant difference in the 5-year PFS (52.5% vs. 37.9%, p=0.351), CSS (67.6% vs. 84.7%, p=0.473), or OS (63.6% vs. 73.8%, p=0.897) between the RT and RP groups. In the multivariate analyses, the type of local therapy was not associated with PFS (hazard ratio [HR]=1.334, p=0.356), CSS (HR=0.744, p=0.475), or OS (HR=0.953, p=0.897). Therefore, RP seems to be a possible treatment option for patients with omPC, exhibiting oncologic outcomes comparable to those with RT.

Oncologic outcomes of screen-detected and non-screen-detected T1 colorectal cancers.

The incidence of T1 colorectal cancer (CRC) has increased with the implementation of CRC screening programs. It is unknown whether the outcomes and risk models for T1 CRC based on non-screen-detected patients can be extrapolated to screen-detected T1 CRC. This study aimed to compare the stage distribution and oncologic outcomes of T1 CRC patients within and outside the screening program. Data from T1 CRC patients diagnosed between 2014 and 2017 were collected from 12 hospitals in the Netherlands. The presence of lymph node metastasis (LNM) at diagnosis was compared between screen-detected and non-screen-detected patients using multivariable logistic regression. Cox proportional hazard regression was used to analyze differences in the time to recurrence (TTR), metastasis-free survival (MFS), cancer-specific survival (CSS), and overall survival. Additionally, the performance of conventional risk factors for LNM was evaluated across the groups. 1803 patients were included (1114 [62%] screen-detected), with median follow-up of 51 months (interquartile range 30). The proportion of LNM did not significantly differ between screen- and non-screen-detected patients (12.6% vs. 8.9%; odds ratio 1.41; 95%CI 0.89-2.23); a prediction model for LNM performed equally in both groups. The 3- and 5-year TTR, MFS, and CSS were similar for patients within and outside the screening program. However, overall survival was significantly longer in screen-detected T1 CRC patients (adjusted hazard ratio 0.51; 95%CI 0.38-0.68). Screen-detected and non-screen-detected T1 CRCs have similar stage distributions and oncologic outcomes and can therefore be treated equally. However, screen-detected T1 CRC patients exhibit a lower rate of non-CRC-related mortality, resulting in longer overall survival.

The influence of marital status at diagnosis on survival of adult patients with mantle cell lymphoma

PurposeMarital status has been reported to influence the survival outcomes of various cancers, but its impact on patients with mantle cell lymphoma (MCL) remains unclear. This study aimed to assess the influence of marital status at diagnosis on overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) in patients with MCL.MethodsThe study utilized data from the National Cancer Institute’s Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER)-18 databases, including 6437 eligible individuals diagnosed with MCL from 2000 to 2018. A 1:1 propensity matching method (PSM) minimized confounding factor. Univariate and multivariate analyses determined hazard ratios (HR). Stratified hazard models were developed for married and unmarried statuses across time intervals.ResultsMarried patients exhibited better 5-year OS and CSS rates compared to unmarried patients (54.2% vs. 39.7%, log-rank p < 0.001; 62.6% vs. 49.3%, log-rank p < 0.001). Multivariate analysis indicated that being unmarried was an independent risk factor for OS (adjusted HR 1.420, 95% CI 1.329–1.517) and CSS (adjusted HR 1.388, 95% CI 1.286–1.498). After PSM, being unmarried remained an independent risk factor for both OS and CSS. Among unmarried patients, widowed individuals exhibited the poorest survival outcomes compared to patients with other marital statuses, with 5-year OS and CSS rates of 28.5% and 41.0%, respectively. Furthermore, in the 10-year OS and CSS hazard model for widowed individuals had a significantly higher risk of mortality, with the probability of overall and cancer-specific mortality increased by 1.7-fold and 1.6-fold, respectively.ConclusionMarital status at diagnosis is an independent prognostic factor for MCL patients, with widowed individuals showing worse OS and CSS than those who are married, single, or divorced/separated. Adequate psychological and social support for widowed patients is crucial for improving outcomes in this patient population.

Prognostic value of lymph node ratio in patients with non-metastatic cervical cancer treated with radical hysterectomy: A population-based study

BackgroundThe lymph node ratio (LNR) is an emerging prognostic biomarker in multiple malignancies. This study aimed to explore the prognostic role of LNR in patients with non-metastatic cervical cancer undergoing radical hysterectomy. MethodsData were extracted from the SEER 17 registry. Univariate and multivariate Cox analyses were performed to identify the prognostic factors associated with cancer-specific survival (CSS). A nomogram was constructed to predict the 5-year and 10-year CSS. Survival analyses stratified by the status of LNR and different adjuvant treatments were performed using the Kaplan–Meier method. ResultsA total of 8128 female patients with non-metastatic cervical cancer who underwent radical hysterectomy and regional node examination (≥8) were enrolled. Of these, 1269 (15.6%) were confirmed as lymph node-positive. Cox regression analyses showed that age, race, tumor size, tumor grade, histology, and LNR were significant factors affecting CSS. A nomogram was developed for predicting the 5-year and 10-year CSS, which showed good discrimination and calibration. Patients without lymph node involvement had inferior CSS with adjuvant treatments compared to those who did not receive further treatment. In patients with LNR ≤10%, only those receiving adjuvant radiotherapy had a trend of better CSS. In patients with an LNR between 10% and 30% and more than 30%, concurrent radiochemotherapy (CCRT) proved to be the best treatment. ConclusionsLNR is an independent prognostic factor in patients with non-metastatic cervical cancer undergoing radical hysterectomy. For patients with negative lymph nodes, no further treatment is recommended. Patients with positive lymph nodes could benefit more from CCRT.

Clinical characteristics and prognoses in pediatric neuroblastoma with bone or liver metastasis: data from the SEER 2010–2019

BackgroundTo investigate clinical characteristics, prognoses, and impacts of treatments on prognoses of neuroblastoma patients with bone or liver metastasis.MethodsThis retrospective cohort study extracted data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database 2010–2019. The outcomes were 3-year cancer-specific survival (CSS) and 5-year CSS. Multivariable COX risk proportional models were established to assess the association between metastasis types and CSS. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated.ResultsTotally 425 patients with metastatic neuroblastoma were eligible for 3-year CSS analysis and 320 for 5-year CSS analysis. For 3-year follow-up, 62 (14.59%) patients had liver metastasis alone, 289 (0.68%) had bone metastasis alone, and 74 (17.41%) had both liver and bone metastasis. For 5-year follow-up, 44 (13.75%) patients had liver metastasis alone, 223 (69.69%) had bone metastasis alone, and 53 (16.56%) had both liver and bone metastasis. Significant differences were observed in age, tumor size, surgery for the primary site, chemotherapy, radiation, brain metastasis, lung metastasis, and vital status between patients with liver metastasis alone, bone metastasis alone, and both liver and bone metastasis (all P < 0.05). Compared with patients with liver metastasis alone, patients with bone metastasis alone (HR = 2.30, 95%CI: 1.10–4.82, P = 0.028) or both (HR = 2.35, 95%CI: 1.06–5.20, P = 0.035) had significantly poorer 3-year CSS; patients with bone metastasis alone (HR = 2.32, 95%CI: 1.14–4.70, P = 0.020) or both liver and bone metastasis (HR = 2.33, 95%CI: 1.07–5.07, P = 0.032) exhibited significantly worse 5-year CSS than those with liver metastasis alone. In patients with bone metastasis, those with chemotherapy had significantly better 3-year CSS than those without (HR = 0.24, 95%CI: 0.07–0.75, P = 0.014). Among patients with liver metastasis, receiving radiation was associated with significantly worse 3-year CSS (HR = 2.00, 95%CI: 1.05–3.81, P = 0.035).ConclusionCompared with patients with liver metastasis alone, those with bone metastasis alone or both had poorer 3- and 5-year CSS. For patients with bone metastasis, undergoing chemotherapy was associated with better 3-year CSS. For patients with liver metastasis, receiving radiation was associated with worse 3-year CSS.

The Impact of Food Insecurity on the Management and Survival of Stage I-III Esophageal Cancer

BackgroundFood insecurity is associated with poor health outcomes; however, the connection with cancer care is not well understood. This study aimed to evaluate the impact of county-level food insecurity on the surgical management and survival of patients with esophageal cancer. MethodsPatients with stage I to III esophageal cancer were identified from Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results data (2010-2016). County-level food insecurity rates were obtained from the Map the Meal Gap data (2010-2016), divided into quartiles: high, marginal, low, and very low. Multivariable and multinomial logistic regression analyses were used to examine the relationship between food insecurity and surgical intervention and the relationship between food insecurity and recommendation and receipt of surgery, respectively. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards modeling was used to evaluate 5-year cancer-specific survival. ResultsA total of 11,114 patients were identified, most of whom were male (78.8%) and non-Hispanic White (77.7%); 44.8% had stage III disease. The odds of undergoing surgical intervention were 27% lower among patients in high–food insecurity counties compared with very low–food insecurity counties (odds ratio, 0.73; 95% CI, 0.64-0.82). The odds of a patient’s being recommended surgery but not undergoing it was 38% higher among patients in high–food insecurity counties compared with very low–food insecurity counties (odds ratio, 1.38; 95% CI, 1.08-1.75). Patients in higher–food insecurity counties had worse survival when compared with patients in very low–food insecurity counties (high: hazard ratio, 1.26; 95% CI, 1.16-1.36). ConclusionsAmong patients with esophageal cancer, significant disparities in surgical resection and survival are associated with high county-level food insecurity. Interventions focused on these communities may help reduce inequities in esophageal cancer care.

Application of Survival Quilts for prognosis prediction of gastrectomy patients based on the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database and China National Cancer Center Gastric Cancer database

ObjectiveAccurate prognosis prediction is critical for individualized-therapy making of gastric cancer patients. We aimed to develop and test 6-month, 1-, 2-, 3-, 5-, and 10-year overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) prediction models for gastric cancer patients following gastrectomy. MethodsWe derived and tested Survival Quilts, a machine learning-based model, to develop 6-month, 1-, 2-, 3-, 5-, and 10-year OS and CSS prediction models. Gastrectomy patients in the development set (n = 20,583) and the internal validation set (n = 5,106) were recruited from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database, while those in the external validation set (n = 6,352) were recruited from the China National Cancer Center Gastric Cancer (NCCGC) database. Furthermore, we selected gastrectomy patients without neoadjuvant therapy as a subgroup to train and test the prognostic models in order to keep the accuracy of tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) stage. Prognostic performances of these OS and CSS models were assessed using the Concordance Index (C-index) and area under the curve (AUC) values. ResultsThe machine learning model had a consistently high accuracy in predicting 6-month, 1-, 2-, 3-, 5-, and 10-year OS in the SEER development set (C-index = 0.861, 0.832, 0.789, 0.766, 0.740, and 0.709; AUC = 0.784, 0.828, 0.840, 0.849, 0.869, and 0.902, respectively), SEER validation set (C-index = 0.782, 0.739, 0.712, 0.698, 0.681, and 0.660; AUC = 0.751, 0.772, 0.767, 0.762, 0.766, and 0.787, respectively), and NCCGC set (C-index = 0.691, 0.756, 0.751, 0.737, 0.722, and 0.701; AUC = 0.769, 0.788, 0.790, 0.790, 0.787, and 0.788, respectively). The model was able to predict 6-month, 1-, 2-, 3-, 5-, and 10-year CSS in the SEER development set (C-index = 0.879, 0.858, 0.820, 0.802, 0.784, and 0.774; AUC = 0.756, 0.827, 0.852, 0.863, 0.874, and 0.884, respectively) and SEER validation set (C-index = 0.790, 0.763, 0.741, 0.729, 0.718, and 0.708; AUC = 0.706, 0.758, 0.767, 0.766, 0.766, and 0.764, respectively). In multivariate analysis, the high-risk group with risk score output by 5-year OS model was proved to be a strong survival predictor both in the SEER development set (hazard ratio [HR] = 14.59, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.872–2.774, P < 0.001), SEER validation set (HR = 2.28, 95% CI: 13.089–16.293, P < 0.001), and NCCGC set (HR = 1.98, 95% CI: 1.617–2.437, P< 0.001). We further explored the prognostic value of risk score resulted 5-year CSS model of gastrectomy patients, and found that high-risk group remained as an independent CSS factor in the SEER development set (HR = 12.81, 95% CI: 11.568–14.194, P < 0.001) and SEER validation set (HR = 1.61, 95% CI: 1.338–1.935, P < 0.001). ConclusionSurvival Quilts could allow accurate prediction of 6-month, 1-, 2-, 3-, 5-, and 10-year OS and CSS in gastric cancer patients following gastrectomy.

Differential clinical outcomes after 3 versus 5 years in a comparison of preoperative chemotherapy with and without radiotherapy in locally advanced rectal cancer: A national cohort propensity score-matched study

BackgroundPreoperative chemotherapy alone might be a good alternative to preoperative chemoradiotherapy for patients with locally advanced rectal cancer, yet long-term real-world data from the same cohort are lacking. MethodsPatients diagnosed with stage II-III rectal adenocarcinoma from 2011 to 2015 were randomly sampled from the SEER-Plus database to evaluate the superiority of preoperative chemoradiotherapy versus preoperative chemotherapy alone. FindingsA total of 1314 eligible patients were enrolled, with a median follow-up of 74.0 months. At 3-year follow-up, neither overall survival (OS) nor cancer-specific survival (CSS) was significantly different between the two treatment groups. At 5-year follow-up, CSS was similar across groups (HR 0.768, 95% CI 0.532–1.108; P = 0.156), but the 5-year OS was significantly better in the preoperative chemoradiotherapy group than in the preoperative chemotherapy group (HR 0.682, 95% CI 0.538–0.866; P = 0.002). Besides, the landmark analysis indicated a direct contrast in the CSS within 3 years (HR 1.101, 95% CI 0.598–2.029; P = 0.756) versus that at 3–5 years (HR 0.597, 95% CI 0.377–0.948; P = 0.027). The landmark analysis also showed directly contrasting OS outcomes within 3 years (HR 0.761, 95% CI 0.533–1.086; P = 0.130) versus those at 3–5 years (HR 0.621, 95% CI 0.451–0.857; P = 0.003). InterpretationIn patients with locally advanced rectal cancer under real-world treatment practices, the addition of preoperative radiotherapy to chemotherapy improves survival outcomes at 3–5 years’ follow-up but not at 3-year follow-up.

Who would be the winner? A prognostic nomogram for predicting the benefit of postoperative radiotherapy ± chemotherapy in patients with locally advanced gastric cancer: TROD-02-01 study

We aimed to develop a basic, easily applicable nomogram to improve the survival prediction of the patients with stage II/III gastric cancer (GC) and to select the best candidate for postoperative radiotherapy (RT). In this multicentric trial, we retrospectively evaluated the data of 1597 patients with stage II/III GC after curative gastrectomy followed by postoperative RT±chemotherapy (CT). Patients were divided into a training set (n=1307) and an external validation set (n=290). Nomograms were created based on independent predictors identified by Cox regression analysis in the training set. The consistency index (C-index) and the calibration curve were used to evaluate the discriminative ability and accuracy of the nomogram. A nomogram was created based on the predictive model and the identified prognostic factors to predict 5-year cancer-specific survival (CSS) and progression-free survival (PFS). The multivariate Cox model recognized lymph node (LN) involvement status, lymphatic dissection (LD) width, and metastatic LN ratio as covariates associated with CSS. Depth of invasion, LN involvement status, LD width, metastatic LN ratio, and lymphovascular invasion were the factors associated with PFS. Calibration of the nomogram predicted both CSS and PFS corresponding closely with the actual results. In our validation set, discrimination was good (C-index, 0.76), and the predicted survival was within a 10% margin of ideal nomogram. In our relatively large cohort, we created and validated both CSS and PFS nomograms that could be useful for underdeveloped or developing countries rather than Korea and Japan, where the D2 gastrectomy is routinely performed. This could serve as a true map for oncologists who must make decisions without an experienced surgeon and a multidisciplinary tumor board.

Comparison of Oncological and Functional Outcomes of Radical Versus Partial Nephrectomy for cT1b Renal Cell Carcinoma: A Two-Centre, Matched Analysis

BACKGROUND: It remains unclear which patients with cT1b renal cell carcinoma (RCC) benefit most from partial nephrectomy (PN) versus radical nephrectomy (RN) considering oncological outcomes and renal function. OBJECTIVE: To compare oncological and functional outcomes of RN with PN for cT1b RCC. METHODS: This is a retrospective analysis of patients who underwent RN or PN for cT1b between 2010 and 2022 (n = 241). Patients were grouped by RN or PN and matched by age, sex, Charlson Comorbidity Index, BMI, PADUA score, RENAL score, ASA score, and preoperative kidney function (eGFR) using propensity score matching. The 10-year overall survival (OS), 10-year cancer-specific survival (CSS), and 10-year recurrence-free survival (RFS) were compared. Change in eGFR from baseline to 5-year follow-up was assessed. RESULTS: After matching, 100 patients remained in each group for analysis. The 10-year OS, CSS, and RFS rates were similar between groups. For patients classified as low risk, the PN group displayed a higher recurrence rate compared to RN (7 vs. 0, p = 0.01). Patients who underwent RN had worse 1-year postoperative eGFR than PN (RN: 57 [44–65], PN: 73 [60–87], p &lt; 0.001). RN was more likely to induce new-onset chronic kidney disease (CKD) stage ≥3b compared to PN (p &lt; 0.001). Complication rate after PN was significantly higher (p = 0.003). CONCLUSION: 10-year survival rates were similar, despite more recurrences in the PN group. Our data shows that post-surgical renal function is superior for PN. Nevertheless, RN is a reliable treatment option when preservation of renal function is not a priority.

Development and evaluation of nomograms and risk stratification systems to predict the overall survival and cancer-specific survival of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the most common type of primary liver cancer, and patients with HCC have a poor prognosis and low survival rates. Establishing a prognostic nomogram is important for predicting the survival of patients with HCC, as it helps to improve the patient’s prognosis. This study aimed to develop and evaluate nomograms and risk stratification to predict overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) in HCC patients. Data from 10,302 patients with initially diagnosed HCC were extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database between 2010 and 2017. Patients were randomly divided into the training and validation set. Kaplan–Meier survival, LASSO regression, and Cox regression analysis were conducted to select the predictors of OS. Competing risk analysis, LASSO regression, and Cox regression analysis were conducted to select the predictors of CSS. The validation of the nomograms was performed using the concordance index (C-index), the Akaike information criterion (AIC), the Bayesian information criterion (BIC), Net Reclassification Index (NRI), Discrimination Improvement (IDI), the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, calibration curves, and decision curve analyses (DCAs). The results indicated that factors including age, grade, T stage, N stage, M stage, surgery, surgery to lymph node (LN), Alpha-Fetal Protein (AFP), and tumor size were independent predictors of OS, whereas grade, T stage, surgery, AFP, tumor size, and distant lymph node metastasis were independent predictors of CSS. Based on these factors, predictive models were built and virtualized by nomograms. The C-index for predicting 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS were 0.788, 0.792, and 0.790. The C-index for predicting 1-, 3-, and 5-year CSS were 0.803, 0.808, and 0.806. AIC, BIC, NRI, and IDI suggested that nomograms had an excellent predictive performance with no significant overfitting. The calibration curves showed good consistency of OS and CSS between the actual observation and nomograms prediction, and the DCA showed great clinical usefulness of the nomograms. The risk stratification of OS and CSS was built that could perfectly classify HCC patients into three risk groups. Our study developed nomograms and a corresponding risk stratification system predicting the OS and CSS of HCC patients. These tools can assist in patient counseling and guiding treatment decision making.

The impact of squamous cell transformation on the prognosis of patients treated with radical nephroureterectomy

Background Limited information is available for guiding the management of upper urinary tract (UUT) urothelial carcinoma with squamous differentiation (UC-SqD). We did not even know about the difference between pure urothelial carcinoma (UC) and UC-SqD in the UUT regardless of treatment policy and prognosis. Instead of direct comparisons against each other, we included the third UUT malignancy, squamous cell carcinoma (SCC). This three-way-race model allows us to more clearly demonstrate the impact of squamous cell transformation on patient outcomes in UUT malignancy.MethodsWe retrospectively analysed 327 patients with UC, UC-SqD, or SCC who underwent radical nephroureterectomy with bladder cuff excision (RNU) at Taichung Veterans General Hospital, Taichung, Taiwan, between January 2006 and December 2013. A Kaplan–Meier survival analysis was used to evaluate the relationship between patient outcomes and histology. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards modelling was also used to predict patient prognoses.ResultsThe five-year postoperative cancer-specific survival (CSS) rates were 83.6% (UC), 74.4% (UC-SqD), and 55.6% (SCC), and the 5-year recurrence-free survival (RFS) rates were 87.7% (UC), 61.5% (UC-SqD), and 51.9% (SCC). UC patients had significantly better 5-year RFS than UC-SqD and SCC patients (P = 0.001 and P < 0.0001, respectively). Patients with pure UC had significantly better 5-year CSS than SCC patients (P = 0.0045). SCC or UC-SqD did not independently predict disease-specific mortality (HR 0.999, p = 0.999; HR 0.775, p = 0.632, respectively) or disease recurrence compared to pure UC (HR 2.934, p = 0.239; HR 1.422, p = 0.525, respectively). Age, lymphovascular invasion (LVI), and lymph node (LN) status independently predicted CSS, while pathological tumour stage, LN status, and LVI predicted RFS.ConclusionsSCC and UC-SqD are not independent predictors of survival outcomes in patients with UUT tumours. However, they are associated with other worse prognostic factors. Hence, different treatments are needed for these two conditions, especially for SCC.

Impact of preoperative subcutaneous adipose, visceral adipose and skeletal muscle on the outcomes of the oldest-old colorectal cancer patients after surgery

BackgroundColorectal cancer (CRC) is one of the most common tumors worldwide, with rising numbers of elderly patients affected. Nutritional status significantly influences tumor prognosis. We aimed to investigate the association of subcutaneous and visceral adipose tissue and skeletal muscle mass with the prognosis of the oldest-old patients with CRC, after surgery. PatientsWe retrospectively reviewed 210 patients >75 years who underwent surgical treatment at the Department of Gastrointestinal Surgery, Beijing Hospital, between December 2010 and December 2020. MaterialsSubcutaneous adipose, visceral adipose, and skeletal muscle areas were measured using BMI_CT. The cut-off values of the CT measurements were then confirmed using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. ResultsSubcutaneous adipose tissue index (SATI), visceral adipose tissue index (VATI), and total adipose tissue index (TATI) were significantly associated with sex and BMI. Notably, the oldest-old CRC patients with high SATI, VATI, and TATI scores exhibited significantly higher rates of wound complications and reduced postoperative hospitalization durations. Intriguingly, patients with high VATI and TATI demonstrated significantly better 5-year Overall survival (OS), Cancer-specific survival (CSS), and Disease-free survival (DFS) than patients in the other groups. Similar results were observed in patients with a high visceral-to-subcutaneous fat ratio (VSR) and skeletal muscle index (SMI) scores. ConclusionSignificantly improving skeletal muscle content while concurrently managing the total adipose content, especially visceral adipose tissue, may aid in extending the survival time of oldest-old patients with CRC after surgery.

The Impact of Enhanced Recovery on Long-Term Survival in Rectal Cancer.

Implementing perioperative interventions such as enhanced recovery pathways (ERPs) has improved short-term outcomes and minimized length of stay. Preliminary evidence suggests that adherence to the enhanced recovery after surgery protocol may also enhance 5-year cancer-specific survival (CSS) in colorectal cancer surgery. This retrospective study presents long-term survival outcomes and disease recurrence from a high-volume, single-center practice. All patients over 18years of age diagnosed with rectal adenocarcinoma and undergoing elective minimally invasive surgery (MIS) were retrospectively reviewed between February 2005 and April 2018. Relevant data were extracted from Mayo electronic records and securely stored in a database. Short-term morbidity and long-term oncological outcomes were compared between patients enrolled in ERP and those who received non-enhanced care. Overall, 600 rectal cancer patients underwent MIS, of whom 320 (53.3%) were treated according to the ERP and 280 (46.7%) received non-enhanced care. ERP was associated with a decrease in length of stay (3 vs. 5 days; p<0.001) and less overall complications (34.7 vs. 54.3%; p<0.001). The ERP group did not show an improvement in overall survival (OS) or disease-free survival (DFS) compared with non-enhanced care on multivariable (non-ERP vs. ERP OS: hazard ratio [HR] 1.268, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.852-1.887; DFS: HR 1.050, 95% CI 0.674-1.635) analysis. ERP was found to be associated with a reduction in short-term morbidity, with no impact on long-term oncological outcomes, such as OS, CSS, and DFS.

Novel tumor marker index using carcinoembryonic antigen and carbohydrate antigen 19-9 is a significant prognostic factor for resectable colorectal cancer

We evaluated the usefulness of a newly devised tumor marker index (TMI), namely, the geometric mean of normalized carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) and carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (CA19-9), in determining colorectal cancer (CRC) prognosis. This retrospective cohort study included 306 patients with stages I–III CRC who underwent elective laparoscopic resection between April 2010 and March 2020. Survival rates and risk factors of relapse-free survival (RFS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) were analyzed using Kaplan–Meier curves and Cox proportional hazards model. High-TMI group (122 patients) had significantly lower rates (95% confidence interval [95% CI]) for 5-year RFS (89.7%, 83.9–93.5 vs. 65.8%, 56.3–73.8, p < 0.001) and CSS (94.9%, 89.4–97.6 vs. 77.3%, 67.7–84.4, p < 0.001) than low-TMI group. Multivariate analysis (hazard ratio [95% CI]) indicated ≥ T3 disease (RFS: 2.69, 1.12–6.45, p = 0.026; CSS: 7.64, 1.02–57.3, p = 0.048), stage III CRC (RFS: 3.30, 1.74–6.28, p < 0.001; CSS: 6.23, 2.04–19.0, p = 0.001), and high TMI (RFS: 2.50, 1.43–4.38, p = 0.001; CSS: 3.80, 1.63–8.87, p = 0.002) as significant RFS and CSS predictors. Area under the curve (AUC) of 5-year cancer deaths (0.739, p < 0.001) was significantly higher for TMI than for CEA or CA19-9 alone. Preoperative TMI is a useful prognostic indicator for patients with resectable CRC.