11th FYP Research Articles

Value‐added export tax policy, credit constraints, and quality: Evidence from China

AbstractThis paper examines the effect of an industrial policy in China named the VAT export tax on product upgrading. In particular, we use Chinese transaction data during 2003–2010 to isolate the causal impact of the exogenous variation of VAT refund and within the city‐product quality change in HS6 exported products. Our identification strategy entails the utilization of duality of the Chinese trade system to isolate the impact of the rebate by comparing a group of trade flows exempt from the refund and another that remains eligible. Our results suggest an increase in product upgrading in response to an increase in VAT refund. In this study, we also introduce the credit constraint to understand the change in quality. The industries that are confronted with tighter credit constraints impel firms to settle for low‐quality products. The model demonstrates that VAT refund provided a counterbalance force to credit constraints, thereby prompting firms to adjust quality. By increasing the refund granted to ordinary traders, firms leverage this excess cash flow to invest (in a fixed asset or innovative project) and improve the quality of products. This effect is reinforced for products exported to developed countries, heterogeneous products, or from larger industries. The Chinese policymakers formally introduced environmental objectives under the 10th and 11th FYP, respectively. The Party leaders put substantial weight on promoting products embedded with high‐added value or technological content. At the same time, they underscored the willingness to downscale the export share of energy‐intensive or polluting industries. We evaluate whether environmental and economic concern impacts product upgrading. According to the results of this study, the VAT refund is effective only for products produced in “cleaner” industries, for products necessitating technical skills, a range of know‐how in manufacturing, and high‐level technology or engaging in research and development activities. Our paper introduces a new and unexplored variable in the trade literature. We use the stock of non‐trade barriers to explicate the change in product quality. In the import market, Chinese exporters comply with the change in regulation by making upward adjustments in the quality.

Green to health: The impact of environmental regulation on health status

To explore whether and how environmental regulation affects adult health, we manually collected unique SO2 reduction targets data of the Eleventh Five-Year Plan (11th FYP) in 2006 for 280 cities in China. Using the 2000–2009 China health nutrition survey (CHNS) dataset, we examined the effects of environmental regulation from the 11th FYP on human health by adopting a DID (difference-in-differences) methodology. Our main finding is that environmental regulation will reduce the probability of adults getting injured or sick by 9.2%. This effect is more prominent for men, rural residents, and low-income households. The channel of this effect is the air quality improvement from the environmental regulation. Further analysis reveals a spillover effect in the implementation of the 11th FYP, meaning that the health status of adults in a city may be affected by the air quality improvement from neighboring cities' environmental regulations. These findings provide relevant micro-evidence for policymakers in air pollution control and have important implications for creating sustainable societies in either developed or developing countries.

How do firms respond to the tighter COD discharge standards? Evidence from the pulp and paper industry in China

ABSTRACT The chemical oxygen demand (COD) emissions from the pulp and paper industry in China have declined continuously since the tighter COD discharge standards were implemented in 2008. Using firm-level data from 2003 to 2013, we investigate how China’s pulp and paper firms would respond to the tighter COD discharge standards with a difference-in-differences design. We find that the tighter COD discharge standards have significant causal effects to induce the pulp and paper firms to reduce their COD emissions primarily through adopting cleaner production. However, the effectiveness of the tighter COD discharge standards depends on monitoring and enforcement activities as well as other regulations accompanying with the tighter COD discharge standards, all of which have become strengthened since China’s 11th Five-Year-Plan (FYP, 2006–2010). While strengthened environmental regulations since the 11th FYP are from the top leadership of the Chinese government in order to deal with the increasing environmental degradation, the underlying driving force of the strengthened environmental regulations is from the household demand for better environmental quality as income increases. This study enriches literature not only on firms’ responses to environmental regulations in developing countries but also on environmental regulations and technology adoption as well as environmental enforcement and compliance.

Determinants of Sustainability: A Case of Piloting ISARD Models in Oriental Mindoro and Leyte, Philippines

SEARCA, in its 10th five-year plan (10th FYP), implemented the program, Inclusive and Sustainable Agricultural and Rural Development (ISARD). A pilot project was undertaken in a specific rural community following a well-defined scheme for an agroecosystem and through the integration of four inter-related components, technical assistance, capacity building, knowledge management, and linkage and networking. After the completion in 2020, evidences of well-developed agricultural system capable of contributing to the goals of food security and poverty alleviation emerged. In its 11th FYP, SEARCA endeavors to scale out the ARD model project in the Southeast Asian region. But, how will this benefit from adopting FAO’s Sustainable Food and Agriculture (SFA)? This central question was addressed by authors in this study. Using an indicator-based assessment approach, the results revealed that the pilot ISARD project, in general, has adopted the SFA principles. It is rated as Good Sustainability, with an overall SFA index of 0.62. To further meet the aspired sustainability through agricultural interventions, the design, delivery, and implementation of ISARD components should include aspects related to facilitating access to productive resources, finance, services for basic infrastructure, protecting water resources, promoting tenure systems to access land, and enhancing nutrition-based programs for the community.

Carbon emission intensity and biased technical change in China's different regions: a novel multidimensional decomposition approach.

The decomposition analysis has been employed to discover the driving factors of carbon emission intensity, but the current studies assume that production functions are under the condition of the neutral technical change. Grounded on biased technical change production theory, this paper proposes a novel multidimensional decomposition approach which combines production-theory decomposition analysis (PDA) and index decomposition analysis (IDA). This novel approach can illustrate how energy structure effect, element substitution effect, efficiency change effect, input biased technical change, output biased technical change and magnitude of technical change affect carbon emission intensity of China's 30 provinces. The results indicate that during the 11th FYP and 13th FYP, output biased technical change and the magnitude of technical change are the critical factors in China's carbon emission intensity, while other four drivers increase carbon emissions. But, during the 12th FYP, the role of six drivers has been reversed contrasting 11th FYP and 13th FYP. In addition, we also explore the impact of each driver from the perspective of regional heterogeneity.

Evaluation and comparison of CMIP6 models and MERRA-2 reanalysis AOD against Satellite observations from 2000 to 2014 over China

Rapid industrialization and urbanization along with a growing population are contributing significantly to air pollution in China. Evaluation of long-term aerosol optical depth (AOD) data from models and reanalysis, can greatly promote understanding of spatiotemporal variations in air pollution in China. To do this, AOD (550 nm) values from 2000 to 2014 were obtained from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CIMP6), the second version of Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research, and Applications (MERRA-2), and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS; flying on the Terra satellite) combined Dark Target and Deep Blue (DTB) aerosol product. We used the Terra-MODIS DTB AOD (hereafter MODIS DTB AOD) as a standard to evaluate CMIP6 Ensemble AOD (hereafter CMIP6 AOD) and MERRA-2 reanalysis AOD (hereafter MERRA-2 AOD). Results show better correlations and smaller errors between MERRA-2 and MODIS DTB AOD, than between CMIP6 and MODIS DTB AOD, in most regions of China, at both annual and seasonal scales. However, significant under- and over-estimations in the MERRA-2 and CMIP6 AOD were also observed relative to MODIS DTB AOD. The long-term (2000–2014) MODIS DTB AOD distributions show the highest AOD over the North China Plain (0.71) followed by Central China (0.69), Yangtse River Delta (0.67), Sichuan Basin (0.64), and Pearl River Delta (0.54) regions. The lowest AOD values were recorded over the Tibetan Plateau (0.13 ± 0.01) followed by Qinghai (0.19 ± 0.03) and the Gobi Desert (0.21 ± 0.03). Large amounts of sand and dust particles emitted from natural sources (the Taklamakan and Gobi Deserts) may result in higher AOD in spring compared to summer, autumn, and winter. Trends were also calculated for 2000–2005, for 2006–2010 (when China introduced strict air pollution control policies during the 11th Five Year Plan or FYP), and for 2011–2014 (during the 12th FYP). An increasing trend in MODIS DTB AOD was observed throughout the country during 2000–2014. The uncontrolled industrialization, urbanization, and rapid economic development that mostly occurred from 2000 to 2005 probably contributed to the overall increase in AOD. Finally, China's air pollution control policies helped to reduce AOD in most regions of the country; this was more evident during the 12th FYP period (2011–2014) than during the 11th FYP period (2006–2010). Therefore this study strongly advises the authority to retain or extend these policies in the future for improving air quality.

A Critical Review of 11th Five Year Plan on Higher Education in India

Development of any nation solely depends on the quality of human resources and good human resource is produced through quality education. Education provides people with an opportunity to reflect on the social, cultural, moral, economic, and spiritual issues and contributes towards the development through propagation of specialized knowledgeand skills.Higher education is a relative term expressing that in the progression of learning, where the utility of a skill cannot be achieved without the acquisition of previous skills, or previous knowledge, which was derived, and proven through theories, to become 'higher' knowledge. Here we discuss about some Past Five Year Plan and 11th FYP (2007- 2012) on Higher Education in India. And also criticize of this plans and present problems. Lastly, I suggest some point of view to overcome these problems.

Benefits of China's efforts in gaseous pollutant control indicated by the bottom-up emissions and satellite observations 2000–2014

To evaluate the effectiveness of national air pollution control policies, the emissions of SO2, NOX, CO and CO2 in China are estimated using bottom-up methods for the most recent 15-year period (2000–2014). Vertical column densities (VCDs) from satellite observations are used to test the temporal and spatial patterns of emissions and to explore the ambient levels of gaseous pollutants across the country. The inter-annual trends in emissions and VCDs match well except for SO2. Such comparison is improved with an optimistic assumption in emission estimation that the emission standards for given industrial sources issued after 2010 have been fully enforced. Underestimation of emission abatement and enhanced atmospheric oxidization likely contribute to the discrepancy between SO2 emissions and VCDs. As suggested by VCDs and emissions estimated under the assumption of full implementation of emission standards, the control of SO2 in the 12th Five-Year Plan period (12th FYP, 2011–2015) is estimated to be more effective than that in the 11th FYP period (2006–2010), attributed to improved use of flue gas desulfurization in the power sector and implementation of new emission standards in key industrial sources. The opposite was true for CO, as energy efficiency improved more significantly from 2005 to 2010 due to closures of small industrial plants. Iron & steel production is estimated to have had particularly strong influence on temporal and spatial patterns of CO. In contrast to fast growth before 2011 driven by increased coal consumption and limited controls, NOX emissions decreased from 2011 to 2014 due to the penetration of selective catalytic/non-catalytic reduction systems in the power sector. This led to reduced NO2 VCDs, particularly in relatively highly polluted areas such as the eastern China and Pearl River Delta regions. In developed areas, transportation is playing an increasingly important role in air pollution, as suggested by the increased ratio of NO2 to SO2 VCDs. For air quality in mega cities, the inter-annual trends in emissions and VCDs indicate that surrounding areas are more influential in NO2 level for Beijing than those for Shanghai.

Interpreting the Evolution of the Energy-Saving Target Allocation System in China (2006–13): A View of Policy Learning

This paper examines how the efficacy of energy-saving policies can be improved through learning. Effective allocation of energy-saving targets is key to achieving China’s reduction targets for energy intensity. Despite growing research interest in the energy-saving target allocation system, details regarding the logic and rationale behind the modifications to the system since the 11th FYP period remain unclear. This paper contributes to the previous literature by applying the concept of policy learning to an analysis of how and from what sources the Chinese government has learned to improve its energy-saving target allocation system over the 2006–13 period. Our study finds that the Chinese government has developed a distinct policy style of “learning from multiple sources” that involves three primary sources: previous experience, local practice, and expert knowledge. Although the extant literature has previously identified these three sources of learning, most of this literature has focused on only one—or at most two—sources of learning at any given time. The uniqueness of policy learning in the energy-saving target allocation system consists of the co-existence of these three sources of learning in one case. This learning-oriented policy style is characterized by reflexivity, which allows current policies to be adjusted in a timely manner in order to alleviate prospective risks.

An assessment approach of land-use to resource-based cities: a case study on land-use process of Daqing region

Land is an important natural resource for national economic development, and many countries are paying more and more concerns on how to effectively utilize the resource. As an example, local petroleum industry in Daqing region is developing rapidly; it leads to the usable land resource diminishing and the agricultural ecological environment degenerating recently, such kind of land change process characterizes land-use feature of typical resource-based city. Therefore, the study of the land-use change of Daqing region is representative and instructive for most resource-based cities. To provide reasonable land use with a theoretical basis for scientific management of such resource-based region, a method to quantitatively assess and adjust the land resource use according to local economic development scenarios is introduced in the current study. Z–H model, an aggregated multivariate regression land-use dynamic model, is applied to predict the tendency of the land-use change of Daqing region in 11th Five-Year Project (11th FYP). The predicted data are compared with the planned target of regional economic development of Daqing in 11th FYP to find feasible land-use operation mode. To distinguish the features of the processes of land-use change in the resource-based region from the others, however, some indicators (such as specific driving efficiency and specific economic profitability) are defined in the studied case, which provide the assessment of local land use with intuitive criteria. And professional suggestion of adjustment index was proposed for scientific management of land use for the local management administration.

Can China comply with its 12th five-year plan on industrial emissions control: a structural decomposition analysis.

China's rapid economic growth has caused serious environmental problems, resulting in the implementation of two major measures-end-of-pipe facilities and the phasing out of backward capacity-to reduce China's industrial emissions as part of its 11th Five-Year Plan (FYP, 2006-2010). It is important to determine whether China can meet the targets set forth in its 12th FYP (2011-2015) for industrial pollution reduction using these same solutions. In this paper, structural decomposition analysis (SDA) was used to identify the contributions of the adopted measures-as well as other underlying factors-and to evaluate the feasibility of the reduction target in China's 12th FYP. Results show that the decrease in major industrial pollutant emissions achieved during the 11th FYP resulted from improved technological efficiency, including end-of-pipe abatement efficiency and pollutant generation intensity. The same measures adopted during China's 12th FYP can address the problem of industrial wastewater emissions resulting from economic growth when the economic structure is kept constant. But it may not fulfill its commitment of reducing industrial atmospheric pollutants emissions unless the economic structure and growth patterns are drastically reformed.

Factor decomposition of Chinese GHG emission intensity based on the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index method

Substantive decomposition research focuses on the energy-related carbon emissions from industrial sectors rather than from the household sector or non-energy-related activities. We extended the application of the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) method to a comprehensive analysis of GHG emission intensity [GHG/unit of gross domestic product (GDP)] related to the industrial and household sectors, and to their energy-related and non-energy-related activities. Chinese carbon intensity was decomposed and analyzed by the LMDI method for the latest three 5-year plans (9th FYP, 10th FYP and 11th FYP), from 1996 to 2010. Results show that Chinese GHG emission intensity has experienced an unconscious reduction stage, an unconscious increasing stage and a conscious reduction stage, respectively, during the three FYPs. Industrial energy intensity had the dominant effect on GHG emission intensity reduction among all coefficients in the three periods. However, the non-energy-related activities cannot be ignored; they had an average 12% effect on GHG emission intensity reduction during the three periods. The household sector averaged about a 10% reduction effect. Looking forward to the 12th FYP, there are still huge challenges to achieving the energy-saving and carbon-reduction goals, due to the opposing effects of national urbanization and eco-civilization construction strategies.

CO2 Emissions in China: Analysis Based on Factor Decomposition Method

Based on the logarithmic mean divisia index (LMDI) method, this paper conducts factor decomposition for historical CO2 emission and carbon intensity from 1980 to 2010. The results show that total economic output effect is always the dominant factor to increase the growth of CO2 emissions, also the most stable factor. Energy intensity is promoting carbon emission reduction factor during every period, but the contribute rate is very little during the 10th FYP. Industrial structure effect is the factor that promotes the carbon emission reduction during 6th FYP, 7th FYP, 9th FYP and 11th FYP, but the contribution is relatively small. During 8th FYP and 10th FYP the structure effect became a contributing factor to the growth of carbon emissions. As for carbon intensity, during 6th FYP, 7th FYP, 9th FYP and 11th FYP, the industrial structure are promoting lower carbon intensity factor, but the contribution rate is relatively small. During other periods the industrial structure became contributing factor to the growth of carbon intensity. On this basis, the key to the energy conservation in the future lies in industrial structure adjustment, especially the development of the tertiary industry.

Probe into gaseous pollution and assessment of air quality benefit under sector dependent emission control strategies over megacities in Yangtze River Delta, China

On February 29th 2012, China published its new National Ambient Air Quality Standard (CH-NAAQS) aiming at revising the standards and measurements for both gaseous pollutants including ozone (O3), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and sulfur dioxide (SO2), and also particle pollutants including PM10 and PM2.5. In order to understand the air pollution status regarding this new standard, the integrated MM5/CMAQ modeling system was applied over Yangtze River Delta (YRD) within this study to examine the criteria gaseous pollutants listed in the new CH-NAAQS. Sensitivity simulations were also conducted to assess the responses of gaseous pollutants under 8 different sector-dependent emission reduction scenarios in order to evaluate the potential control strategies. 2006 was selected as the simulation year in order to review the air quality condition at the beginning of China's 11th Five-Year-Plan (FYP, from 2006 to 2010), and also compared with air quality status in 2010 as the end of 11th FYP to probe into the effectiveness of the national emission control efforts. Base case simulation showed distinct seasonal variation for gaseous pollutants: SO2, and NO2 were found to have higher surface concentrations in winter while O3 was found to have higher concentrations in spring and summer than other seasons. According to the analyses focused on 3 megacities within YRD, Shanghai, Nanjing, and Hangzhou, we found different air quality conditions among the cities: NO2 was the primary pollutant that having the largest number of days exceeding the CH-NAAQS daily standard (80 μg m−3) in Shanghai (59 days) and Nanjing (27 days); SO2 was the primary pollutant with maximum number of days exceeding daily air quality standard (150 μg m−3) in Hangzhou (28 days), while O3 exceeding the daily maximum 8-h standard (160 μg m−3) for relatively fewer days in all the three cities (9 days in Shanghai, 14 days in Nanjing, and 11 days in Hangzhou). Simulation results from predefined potential applicable emission control scenarios suggested significant air quality improvements from emission reduction: 90% of SO2 emission removed from power plant in YRD would be able to reduce more than 85% of SO2 pollution, 85% NOx emission reduction from power plant would reduce more than 60% of NO2 pollution, in terms of reducing the number of days exceeding daily air quality standard. NOx emission reduction from transportation and industry were also found to effectively reduce NO2 pollution but less efficient than emission control from power plants. We also found that multi-pollutants emission control including both NOx and VOC would be a better strategy than independent NOx control over YRD which is China's 12th Five-Year-Plan (from 2011 to 2015), because O3 pollution would be increased as a side effect of NOx control and counteract NO2 pollution reduction benefit.

Air pollution reduction during China's 11th Five-Year Plan period—local implementation and achievements in Shanxi province

Facing the increasing environmental degradation locally and globally, the Chinese government set mandatory goals of 10% reduction of SO2 emission in its 11th Five-Year Plan period (FYP, 2006–2010). In this paper we use Shanxi province to illustrate how policies and measures are implemented in practice at a provincial level as a response to the National FYP issued by the central government. Local policies are described and their effects are analyzed. We find that the 11th FYP goal for SO2 pollution reduction in Shanxi has been surpassed. SO2 reduction from estimated baseline level was calculated for the FYP period in order to identify which sectors have had the largest reductions. Regarding SO2, we find that Flue-gas desulfurization (FGD) in power plants has been the most important, while either the FGD operation rate or the efficiency, or both, are much lower in practice than officially required. SO2 emission reduction from closing down outdated production capacity is small according to our estimates. This is due to the comparatively small use of coal in the units being closed down in Shanxi. Necessary steps to achieve the targets in the 12th FYP are briefly discussed.

The energy intensity target in China's 11th Five-Year Plan period—Local implementation and achievements in Shanxi Province

Facing the mounting pressure on energy security and increasing environmental concerns about air pollution and climate change, the Chinese government set a mandatory goal of 20% reduction of energy intensity in its 11th Five-Year Plan period (FYP, 2006–2010). In this paper we use Shanxi province to illustrate how policies and measures are implemented in practice at a provincial level as a response to the National FYP issued by the central government. Local policies are described and their effects are analyzed. We compare reported energy saving achievements with our own estimates and conclude that the achievements in Shanxi probably have been substantial since the start of the 11th FYP period. The most important measures taken by provincial and local governments seem to be in the secondary sector, such as Top-200/Top-1000 program and phasing out outdated technologies. However, Shanxi has still a long way to go to achieve satisfactory energy use. Further improvement of energy intensity will require continuing efforts. Although many measures are necessary, improving the energy efficiency in heavy industries and reducing the dependence on these industries should be particularly effective.