Abstract
Based on the logarithmic mean divisia index (LMDI) method, this paper conducts factor decomposition for historical CO2 emission and carbon intensity from 1980 to 2010. The results show that total economic output effect is always the dominant factor to increase the growth of CO2 emissions, also the most stable factor. Energy intensity is promoting carbon emission reduction factor during every period, but the contribute rate is very little during the 10th FYP. Industrial structure effect is the factor that promotes the carbon emission reduction during 6th FYP, 7th FYP, 9th FYP and 11th FYP, but the contribution is relatively small. During 8th FYP and 10th FYP the structure effect became a contributing factor to the growth of carbon emissions. As for carbon intensity, during 6th FYP, 7th FYP, 9th FYP and 11th FYP, the industrial structure are promoting lower carbon intensity factor, but the contribution rate is relatively small. During other periods the industrial structure became contributing factor to the growth of carbon intensity. On this basis, the key to the energy conservation in the future lies in industrial structure adjustment, especially the development of the tertiary industry.
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