China's carbon intensity factor decomposition and carbon emission decoupling analysis

Abstract

China's carbon emissions have been ranking first in the world. This study filled in the gaps in research, decomposed carbon intensity from the perspective of time, space and industry. A decoupling effort model based on factor decomposition models was constructed to analyze the driving factors of carbon emissions and economic decoupling, which builded a foundation for achieving sustainable economic development. Using the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index method (LMDI), the paper measured the carbon emission intensity of 29 provinces and cities in China from 1998 to 2019, and decomposed the decoupling effect between GDP and carbon emission on the basis of factor decomposition by tapio. The results showed that: (1) Carbon intensity declined first, then rise lightly, and finally declined steadily. For the primary industry and the tertiary industry, the carbon intensity declined steadily, while the carbon intensity increased accordingly to the overall carbon intensity. In terms of spatial evolution, the regional differences between different provinces decreased correspondingly. (2) The cumulative contribution rates of these three effects, i.e., technological progress, industrial structure and regional scale were 106.3299%, −15.1486% and 8.8188%, respectively. There were obvious differences of these cumulative contribution rates of carbon intensity among different provinces. (3) From the perspective of industrial, technological progress effect is the largest contribution for carbon intensity in the secondary industry. The Industrial structure effect mainly affects the primary and tertiary industries; and no significant difference in regional scale effect. (4) The decoupling effect gradually improved, and technological progress has played an absolute leading role in promoting the decoupling effect. Based on the research results, the key policy recommendation are put forward as follows: (1) Further improve the technological level and support clean technology enterprises. (2) Promote industrial upgrading in backward industrial provinces (3) Promote regional assistance and the introduction of high-quality foreign investment.