12th Five-Year Plan Research Articles

Under the Background of AI Application, Research on the Impact of Science and Technology Innovation and Industrial Structure Upgrading on the Sustainable and High-Quality Development of Regional Economies

In the opening year of the 14th Five-Year Plan, China has made significant progress in upgrading its industrial structure and improving the quality of economic growth based on the goal of technological self-sufficiency and self-improvement, and more and more artificial intelligence is being used in the market. Artificial intelligence is playing an important role in the innovation and market construction of the economy. This manuscript constructs a spatial Durbin model by measuring the level of science and technology innovation and sustainable high-quality economic development of 283 prefecture-level cities in China from 2010–2019, and explores the effects and mechanisms of science and technology innovation in promoting the sustainable high-quality economic development of Chinese cities under the background of AI application. It is found that China’s science and technology innovation not only promotes the improvement of economic quality in the region, but also has positive spatial spillover, leading to the improvement of economic quality in neighboring regions. In combination with this established background, this manuscript introduces the variable of industrial structure upgrading and explores its mechanism of action in this field. Research shows that industrial structure upgrading is an important transmission path for science and technology innovation to promote sustainable and high-quality economic development. At the same time, considering the impact of the interaction between science and technology innovation and industrial structure upgrading on the sustainable and high-quality development of regional economy, this manuscript also constitutes an innovative study. Therefore, the government should continuously promote science and technology innovation and industrial structure upgrading, take advantage of China’s mega-market, make full use of the spatial spillover effect, guide the effective allocation of innovation resources, promote the orderly flow and reasonable allocation of innovation factors, and improve the institutional mechanism for promoting the market-oriented application of independent innovation results to support sustainable and high-quality economic development.

The Sensitivity Analysis for Supply and Demand Dynamics System of Aged Services Resource Allocation in China

The rapid increase in the proportion of the elderly population in China has increased the demand for aged services. It is a huge challenge for the Chinese government to establish the aged service system to meet such a large demand in a short time. In its 14th Five-Year Development plan, to promote a more rational allocation of health services, the Chinese government plans to build a health service system for the elderly. Based on the aged service resource allocation model established in the previous research, this paper proposes optimization measures and improves the model. The second-order matrix sensitivity analysis is performed on 30 parameters in the improved model, and the influence law of parameters on the whole system under a different amplitude of variation is explored. The results show that the disability rate of the elderly population, the service capacity of aged service institutions, per capita disposable income, and other factors have a great impact on the balance between the supply and demand of aged service resources. Therefore, when formulating policies related to the allocation of aged service resources, we can focus on improving the health level of the elderly, increasing the investment of social funds in aged service, and improving people’s consumption levels, so as to further improve the aged service system.

Forecast of Coal Demand in Shanxi Province Based on GA—LSSVM under Multiple Scenarios

Under the “carbon peaking and carbon neutrality” goal, Shanxi Province adjusts the power supply structure and promotes the development of a high proportion of new energy, which has a certain impact on the demand for thermal coal. Therefore, constructing a reasonable forecasting model for thermal coal demand can play a role in stabilizing coal supply and demand. This paper analyzes various factors related to coal demand, and uses Pearson coefficient to screen out six variables with strong correlation. Then, based on the scenario analysis method, combined with the “14th Five-Year Plan” of Shanxi Province, different scenarios of economic development and carbon emission reduction development are set. Finally, a multi-scenario GA–LSSVM forecasting model of thermal coal demand in Shanxi Province is constructed, and the future development trend of thermal coal demand in Shanxi Province is predicted. The results show that the demand for thermal coal is the largest in the mode of high-speed economic development and low emission reduction, and the demand for thermal coal is the lowest in the mode of low-speed economic development and strong emission reduction, which provides a scientific basis for the implementation of Shanxi Province’s thermal coal supply policy.

Comparative Residents’ Satisfaction Evaluation for Socially Sustainable Regeneration—The Case of Two High-Density Communities in Suzhou

With the 14th Five-Year Plan for Development, China is promoting people-oriented urban regeneration for residential communities built before 2000. Evaluations of quality of life (QoL) and considerations of social sustainability must play an important role in defining people-oriented regeneration projects. Residents’ satisfaction is an important indicator of QoL and is essential for achieving socially sustainable development. To contribute to the ongoing discussion about people-oriented urban regeneration, this paper studies the correlation between QoL and social sustainability, investigating residents’ perception in high-density communities through a satisfaction evaluation approach based on the QoL index. Two high-density communities in Suzhou were analyzed: Nanhuan, a high-rise, gated community in one of the first expansions of the city in the 80s; and Daoqian, a multi-story, non-gated community in the old town. Both communities have a typical urban morphology and were selected for their exemplary characteristics. The study used a mixed research method: field investigation, on-site interviews, and a survey with over 670 questionnaires conducted and analyzed. It also applied the Structural Equation Model (SEM) to explore and define the satisfaction evaluation factors. The two communities expressed concerns about different factors: in the case of the Nanhuan community, property management and spatial scenario creation were emphasized, whereas in the case of the Daoqian community, unrestricted space mobility, poor existing conditions, and the demand for various facilities and recreation spaces were most prominent. The research found that improving community environmental quality and facilities would, as one would expect, improve residents’ satisfaction in both communities. Still, our research also clearly indicated that diversified spatial activities, currently missing in both cases, and more opportunities for social interaction would enhance residents’ satisfaction. The findings of this study offer some insights regarding socially sustainable community regeneration, as well as decision-making processes and design strategies.

Prediction Model of Soil Heavy Metal Content Based on Particle Swarm Algorithm Optimized Neural Network.

In 2014, the relevant research data from the Ministry of Environmental Protection and the Ministry of Land and Resources showed that the total exceedance rate of soil heavy metal pollution in China had reached 16.1%, and in the construction of ecological civilization in the 13th Five-Year Plan, China has made the prevention and control of soil heavy metal pollution as the focus of prevention and control. Therefore, in this paper, four neural optimization network models, that is, radial basis neural network (RBFNN), generalized regression neural network (GRNN), wavelet neural network (WNN), and fuzzy neural network (FNN), are simulated and created to measure and correlate the soil heavy metal content in a city in northwest China and a city in central China from the actual situation in China. The simulations were conducted. Finally, by analyzing the comparison of predicted and true values of these four models on the test data of two sets of experimental data, the distribution of predicted differences to true values, and the calculation results of three error indicators, we found that WNN has the best prediction performance when using RBFNN, GRNN, WNN, and FNN for soil heavy metal content prediction.

Study on cooperative constraint zoning of water environment.

This study comprehensively considers two elements of water environmental sensitivity and pressure using the combination of qualitative analysis and quantitative calculation. And it puts forward the water environmental collaborative constraint zoning method and focuses on the construction of the water environmental collaborative constraint zoning evaluation index system using the fuzzy optimization programming model to determine the index weight. This study takes the Liaohe River Basin in Liaoning Province as a study area through two-dimensional quadrant analysis of water environmental sensitivity and pressure; it is divided into four types of areas: high-pressure and high-sensitivity area (HP-HS area), high-pressure and low-sensitivity area (HP-LS area), low-pressure and high-sensitivity area (LP-HS area) and low-pressure and low-sensitivity area (LP-LS area), respectively. The results show that the proportion of HP-HS area is 28.4%, the proportion of HP-LS area is 10.1%, the proportion of LP-HS area is 22.2% and the proportion of LP-LS area is 39.3%, respectively. The evaluation results are in line with the actual situation of the Liaohe River Basin in Liaoning Province. According to the results of different zoning, this research puts forward the optimization and adjustment scheme of industrial layout to achieve the comprehensive and coordinated sustainable development of population, economy, society, and environment in the study area. The research results also have been applied to the formulation of '14th Five-Year Plan' for water ecological environment protection of key river basins in Liaoning Province.

Research On Diagnostic Criteria Of Upper Crossed Syndrome Based On WOS And CNKI Literature

The incidence of upper crossed syndrome (UCS) has become younger, but now, the diagnosis and screening criteria of UCS are different, and researchers can not quickly and intuitively understand the research trend. PURPOSE: Analyze and sort out the research on UCS in Chinese and English databases, and sort out the current diagnostic screening criteria of UCS research, so as to provide some reference for researchers related to UCS in the future. METHODS: All relevant literature on UCS published in CNKI and WOS databases were searched and analyzed by the literature method. RESULTS: WOS research is mainly screened by observing three factors related to UCS, including body angle, muscle activation and movement mode. The scapula is the cornerstone of UCS evaluation, so the scapula dyskinesia test will be conducted. Meanwhile, it will also be measured by photogrammetry and the forward head (≥ 44°), round shoulder (≥ 49°) or thoracic kyphosis (≥ 42°); Some researchers only set the criteria as rake angle, round shoulder angle and kyphosis, and some set the inclusion criteria of Craniovertebral angle as greater than 46°. Haifah considered that skull angle and shoulder angle met one or both of the inclusion criteria of UCS. Moreover, there are also criteria for selecting the deviation of cervical spine line from the centre greater than 2.5 cm based on GPS test, or the horizontal distance from the centre of the external auditory canal to acromioclavicular joint greater than 1 cm. CNKI's clinical diagnostic criteria for UCS mainly start from the three aspects of shoulder and neck pain, head forward and round shoulder. It also includes the situation of pterygoid scapula but almost does not directly include the relevant angles of neck and shoulder as the diagnostic criteria, but as the observation index before and after an intervention. In short, the diagnostic criteria of CNKI's research are more functional symptoms, combined with the history of chronic strain, pain signs, cervical spine imaging data, etc. CONCLUSION: The diagnostic criteria of CNKI are pain and functional symptoms, and WOS focuses on the measurement angle. Supported by Education Science Project of "14th Five-year Plan" of Henan Province Grant ROI 2021YB0031, and Science and Technology Development Project of Kaifeng Grant ROI 2104006.

Coverage of Maternal & Child Health Services by the Beneficiaries Residing in an Urban Poor Locality, Bengaluru

Introduction: Under the National Population Policy-2000, National Health Policy-2002, 10th Five-Year Plan, and Reproductive and Child Health-2 Programme, the maternal and child health (MCH) services of the urban poor have been recognized as an important thrust area for the country's development. Objective: The objective is to assess the MCH services coverage and utilization provided by the government. Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted during October 2015–November 2016 in the eight urban poor localities falling under the urban field practice area of the medical college in Bengaluru. Using the probability proportional to population size, a total of 2540 beneficiaries meeting the inclusion and exclusion criteria were included in the study. Data were collected using pretested semistructured pro forma by interview method and analyzed using appropriate inferential and descriptive statistics. Results: Around 83.3% of subjects had registered their pregnancy within 12 weeks. Majority (83.1%) of women delivered in the government hospital and 7.2% had complications following delivery. Around 56.8% of women had practiced one of the family planning methods (couple protection rate of 56.8%). Most of the women 67% had utilized MCH services in the past 6 months and 74.5% utilized services from the government health facility. The utilization of MCH services was mainly by subjects of the Muslim religion, nuclear families, literates, and unemployed and on applying Z-test this difference was statistically significant. Conclusion: Coverage of MCH services was not satisfactory. There is a statistically significant difference in the utilization based on religion, type of family, literacy, and employment.

Stories From China

China is reforming its power system based on new energy resources during the 14th Five-Year Plan (2021–25) period, leading the development of wind power generations in full expansion mode. By 2025 the total installed power-generating capacity will reach 2,950 GW, of which wind power will reach 540 GW, counting for approximately 18.3% of the market shares. Offshore wind power is expected to play a bigger role in leading the economic development with significant progress in the increments of transmission distance and capacity. Efforts are being made to overcome the disadvantages of HVAC systems such as capacitance effects during long-distance transmission, the disadvantages of HVDC systems such as the space charge accumulation problem and huge investments in offshore converter stations, and the difficulty of carrying out optimal compensation by using fixed reactance for intermittent and unstable offshore wind power plants.

Effects Of Fatigue On Lower Extremity Kinetics And Kinematics In Jump-stop Tasks

Non-contact anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injury is common among athletes. Sudden deceleration in basketball competitions is closely related to non-contact ACL injury. Fatigue has also been considered one of potential injury risk factors according to epidemiological statistics. PURPOSE:To simulate the actual fatigue in basketball competitions and investigate the changes of injury-related lower extremity biomechanical characteristics. METHODS:Twelve male basketball players (age: 20.1 ± 0.6 years old; height: 1.8 ± 0.1 m; weight: 71.4 ± 13.5 kg) were recruited to executive a basketball-specific fatigue protocol. The fatigue protocol consists of a sequence including sprinting, cutting and consecutive vertical jumps. Participants repeated this sequence until they were unable to reach 80% of the maximal height. Participants were required to perform 6 trials of jump-stop tasks before and immediately after the fatigue protocol. Eight high-speed cameras (Motion Analysis Raptor- 4, USA) sampling at 200 Hz were used to collect joint angles. Two force plates (Kistler 9281CA, Switzerland) sampling at 1000 Hz were used to collect ground reaction forces. Joint net moment was calculated by inverse dynamics. All data was smoothed by 13.3 Hz Butterworth low-pass filter with Cortex 2.6. Paired t-test was performed (α =0.05) with SPSS 24.0. RESULTS:Knee flexion angle (73.52 ± 12.21, P = 0.034, Cohen’s d = 1.243) significantly increased post-fatigue at peak stance, so was the approach speed at initial contact (2.78 ± 0.51, P = 0.003, Cohen’s d = 1.333). A decreased hip abduction angle (-7.67 ± 8.57, P = 0.010, Cohen’s d = 0.577) was significantly observed post-fatigue at initial contact. Participants landed with increased vertical ground reaction force (0.245 ± 0.063(BW), P = 0.031, Cohen’s d = 0.667) in kinetics, but the posterior ground reaction force significantly decreased (0.005 ± 0.012(BW), P = 0.014, Cohen’s d = -0.6) at peak vertical ground reaction force. No fatigue-induced difference of lower extremity moment was found in this study. CONCLUSIONS:The influence of fatigue on both kinematics and kinetics of lower extremity during jump-stop tasks indicates an increased ACL injury risk. Research supported by the Education Social Science Foundation Project of the 13th Five-Year Plan of Education in China (BLA180218).

Age-specific Characteristic Of Body Composition In Chinese People: A Across-sectional Study

PURPOSE: Human body composition such as human muscle, fat, protein, bone mineral can provide important basic research data in the fields of nutrition, physical and health fitness, weight control and other fields. The purpose of this study is to measure and analyze the body composition characteristic of Chinese people. METHODS: 152449 Chinese people from seven geographical regions of the country are involved in this study, including 80241 males and 72208 females. The body composition was measured by bioelectrical impedance analyzer(BCA-2 body composition analyzer, Tsinghua Tongfang, China). There are 8 age groups (6-10, 11-20, 21-30, 31-40, 41-50, 51-60, 61-70, 71-80 years old). Data was analyzed by SPSS 23.0. The study was approved by the medical ethics committee of Tsinghua University. RESULTS: The statistics on age-specific of body composition of Chinese people were shown as follows: 1) Fat mass and body fat percent: the maximum fat mass in men was reached in the age group of 51-60 years which the average fat mass was 17.8 kg and the body fat percent was 26.2%; the maximum fat mass in women was reached in the age group of 61-70 years which the average fat mass was 20.7 kg and the body fat percent was 34.9%. 2) Muscle mass: the peak value of 55.0 kg was reached in men at 21-30 group and 38.7 kg in women at 31-40 group. After that, both men and women showed a slow downward trend. 3) Bone mineral content: the peak value of 3.65 kg was reached in men at 21-30 and 2.91 kg in women at 21-30. And then both began to decline. 4)Total body fluid: the maximum 42.8 kg was reached in the 21-30 group of men, and then began to show a downward trend. The maximum 30.3 kg was reached in the 31-40 group of women, and then showed a slow downward trend. 5) Average percentage of each body composition of Chinese people were: Men: water was 57%, protein was 17%, bone mineral content was 5%, fat was 21%; Women: water was 51%, protein was 16%, bone mineral content was 4%, fat was 29%. CONCLUSIONS: 1) After middle age, the growth of body fat percent was significantly higher than the growth rate of body weight, the obesity problem of the elderly in China is more prominent. 2) The bone mineral content and muscle mass tend to decline after the age of 30-40. Research supported by the Education Social Science Foundation Project of the 13th Five-Year Plan of Education in China (BLA180218).

Promoting the scientific spirit and ideas: How to realize the guiding role of scientific culture based on the modern science and technology museum system

In the context of the publication of the National Action Plan for Scientific Literacy (2021–2035) and the 14th Five-Year Plan for the Development of the Modern Science and Technology Museum System (2021–2025), and based on a review of the history and characteristics of various science popularization venues, this paper analyses the mission of those venues in advocating scientific methods, disseminating scientific ideas and promoting the scientific spirit and the scientist spirit. It discusses the requirements for science popularization venues to strengthen scientific culture. Finally, the paper provides suggestions for fulfilling the guiding role of scientific culture through promoting the modern science and technology museum system, including enhancing strategic awareness, strengthening academic research and breaking disciplinary barriers.

Deepen supply-side reform of science popularization resources and build high-quality and highly efficient modern science and technology museums

Standing at the starting point of the 14th Five-Year Plan (2021–2025), China's modern science and technology museum system faces both new opportunities and challenges, and urgently needs supply-side reform of science popularization resources. The reform should maintain the direction of promoting public participation, strengthening cross-sector integration, applying emerging technologies, promoting the science popularization industry and deepening international cooperation. The aim of the reform is to optimize exhibition levels and quality, deepen the diversity and innovation of educational resources, refine the detection of and response to visitor demands, and strengthen academic research and the transformation of research achievements. Such efforts will serve to cultivate the capacity for holding popular exhibitions, enhancing science communication, delivering targeted services and driving innovation, and will promote the development of high-quality and highly efficient modern science and technology museums.

The impact of digital economy on green development in China

With the huge dividends released by the vigorous development of the digital economy, China urgently demand a major strategic transformation from extensive development to green development. The 14th five-year plan period will require China’s green development to firmly create new advantages in the growth of the digital economy. In order to investigate the impact of the digital economy on the green economy, this paper has utilized a panel data model to analyze data from 30 Chinese provinces between 2015 and 2020. Findings from the research have suggested that the digital economy is helpful for advancing the green economy, with the Eastern region having a bigger influence than the central region and the center region having a greater influence than the Western region. Industrial structure and technological innovation are important channels for digital economy to promote green development. According to the aforementioned conclusion, we have proposed the following suggestion: China should actively advance the digital economy, encourage regional coordination in growth, continuously improve the industrial structure and boost technical innovation.

Drivers for decoupling carbon footprint pressure from economic growth in China’s provinces

A growing imbalance between energy carbon emissions and vegetation carbon sequestration is a major impediment to achieving Sustainable Development Goals. Decoupling the growing imbalance from economic growth needs a stringent and coordinated package of sustainable policies. Previously, enhancing efficiency and vegetation carbon sequestration were dominant drivers to decouple. However, the role and magnitude of restructurings in the energy sector and economy in decoupling were underestimated. In this context, China’s 30 provinces were selected as study areas. By employing a carbon footprint pressure (CFP) indicator to represent the imbalance, a widely decoupling method was adopted to describe the decoupling state and trend of CFP and economic growth. An extended IPAT equation and the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index method were further used to reveal the role and magnitude of drivers on decoupling. The findings revealed that the CFP climbed significantly in 26 provinces between 2006 and 2015. We discovered that 22 provinces were working toward absolute decoupling, with 15 provinces achieving it during the 12-th Five-Year Plan. Our analysis revealed that improving energy efficiency was the primary driver of absolute decoupling, while substituting natural gas and oil for coal, reducing industry share, and enhancing carbon sequestration accelerated absolute decoupling. Considering the limited future role of improving energy efficiency and vegetation carbon sequestration, there is an urgent need to optimize and upgrade the structures of the energy sector and economy to mitigate the future climate risk.

Why is COD pollution from Chinese manufacturing declining?——The role of environmental regulation

This paper combines the datasets of the Annual Survey of Industrial Firms and Pollution Emission of Chinese Firms, and uses the difference-in-differences method to explore the impact of environmental regulation on firm chemical oxygen demand (COD) emissions. Using China's COD reduction targets in the 11th Five-Year Plan, we show that environmental regulation reduces firms' COD emissions. The mechanism analysis suggests that the decline of firms' COD emissions caused by environmental regulation is not only driven by the cutting of firm's output but also the falling of COD emission intensity, and environmental regulation's effect on COD emission intensity is much larger. Furthermore, we find end-of-pipe treatment is not at work to the decline of COD emission intensity and front-end preventive control takes effect. Besides, exit of the emission inefficiency firms also contributes to the improvement of firm's COD emissions efficiency.

Life cycle assessment of pollutants and emission reduction strategies based on the energy structure of the nonferrous metal industry in China

China is the largest producer and consumer of nonferrous metals in the world. China's consumption has posed a severe challenge to " peak carbon emissions and carbon neutrality " and “ecological civilization construction” goals of the 14th Five-Year Plan. Therefore, this article selects the five most typical nonferrous metal industries and analyses the energy structure through life cycle inventory (“LCI”). Then, this article uses the life cycle assessment (“LCA”) to characterize, standardize, and weigh the environmental effects of the nonferrous metal industry. The contribution of the characteristic value is mainly from high-energy-consuming processes such as electrolysis and smelting. High-energy-consuming proportions are approximately 80% and 10%, respectively. Of the results of the standardized and weighted models, the most important environmental impact is “global warming”. Based on the LCA results, we propose energy-saving and emission reduction methods. The LCA model would support decisions aimed at achieving the “peak carbon emissions and carbon neutrality” and “reducing pollution and carbon and coordinating governance strategic plan”. If these countermeasures are effectively implemented, the emission reduction effect of environmental pollution will reach 87.94%–99.12%. According to the economic evaluation, implementing an emission reduction measure could create an economic value of RMB 1.35 × 1013 per year.

A Novel Energy Planning Scheme Based on PGA Algorithm and Its Application.

In order to actively respond to the “14th Five-Year Plan,” the PGA algorithm is used to develop a new energy planning strategy in this paper. The project can make full use of my country's abundant renewable energy resources, encourage energy conservation and reduction of emissions, improve the energy structure's low-carbon level, support the development of smart green energy, and achieve ecological civilization construction. This solution can show users how much greenhouse gas emissions can be reduced through some environmental changes, as well as the basic issues of meeting the future energy needs. It can display the benefits, costs, and emissions data under different scenarios in the future and use the scenario demonstration method to show energy planning to make energy data more vivid. It allows people, technicians, and decision makers to understand what will happen to China's carbon emissions over time in the next 15 years. This paper innovatively combines a particle swarm optimization algorithm with a genetic algorithm and designs a PGA algorithm for path optimization. In terms of carbon emission reduction, comparative trials demonstrate that the PGA algorithm's path optimization is 58.06 percent greater than the genetic algorithm; In terms of cost, the PGA algorithm's path optimization is 15.72% less expensive than the genetic algorithm's. This article provides a reference path for selecting the best results for future energy planning schemes and provides a new strategy for the “14th Five-Year” energy plan.

A Comprehensive Evaluation of Benefit of High-Standard Farmland Development in China

In 2013, the government officially approved the construction task of developing high-standard farmland, which had been written into the outline of the “12th Five-Year Plan”, the “13th Five-Year Plan” and the “14th Five-Year Plan”, effectively ensuring the sustainable development of farmland with high and stable yield in China. Moreover, with the rapid progress of urbanization and industrialization, the quality and usage of cultivated land have changed greatly, and the relationship between the economic value, social value and ecological value of land has become increasingly prominent. Whether the development of high-standard farmland, especially the high-standard farmland used for grain production, has achieved the goals of increasing farmers’ income, agricultural output and rural development is not clear. Therefore, it is necessary to evaluate the comprehensive benefits of high-standard farmland development in grain production, so as to scientifically measure the results of the development. From the perspective of economic, social and ecological benefits, this paper establishes an entropy weight evaluation index system and a model to evaluate the level and effectiveness of high-standard farmland development from 2013 to 2020 in China. The results show that the high-standard farmland development project has improved the yield of grain and the basic productivity of cultivated land, effectively increased the yields of land in the project area and promoted the protection and improvement of cultivated land quality, which includes soil quality improvement, soil fertility enhancement, pollution control and soil remediation. The project also helped raise the farmers’ income levels and improved farmers’ agricultural knowledge and skills in the project area. The projects are very beneficial for agricultural production, the farmers’ income and rural development. However, there is still a certain gap between the national average level of improvement and the original goal set in the policy. The average grain yield per mu (Note: 1 mu ≈ 0.0667 ha, similarly hereinafter) was expected to be increased by less than 100 kg (the national average was a 40 kg increase), and the degrees of improvement in economic, social, ecological and comprehensive benefits in different project types were also different. In the future, we suggest that the project should be implemented according to local conditions and the features of each region. We should pay attention to the protection of basic farmland quality and further improve grain output to achieve the goal of stabilizing and increasing production.

China's carbon dioxide emission forecast based on improved marine predator algorithm and multi-kernel support vector regression.

Global warming has constituted a major global problem. Carbon dioxide emissions from the burning of fossil fuels are the main cause of global warming. Therefore, carbon dioxide emission forecasting has attracted widespread attention. Aiming at the problem of carbon dioxide emissions forecasting, this paper proposes a new hybrid forecasting model of carbon dioxide emissions, which combines the marine predator algorithm (MPA) and multi-kernel support vector regression. For further strengthening the prediction accuracy, a novel variant of MPA is proposed, called EGMPA, which introduces the elite opposition-based learning strategy and the golden sine algorithm into MPA. Algorithm test results show that EGMPA can effectively improve the convergence speed and optimization accuracy. The carbon dioxide emission data of China from 1965 to 2020 are taken as the research objects. Root-mean-square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) are used to evaluate the performance of the proposed model. The proposed multi-kernel support vector regression model is used to forecast China’s carbon dioxide emissions during the “14th Five-Year Plan” period. The results show that the proposed model has RMSE of 37.43 Mt, MAE of 30.63 Mt, and MAPE of 0.32%, which significantly improves the prediction accuracy and can accurately and effectively predict China’s carbon dioxide emissions. During the “14th Five-Year Plan” period, China’s carbon dioxide emissions will continue to show an increasing trend, but the growth rate will slow down significantly.