10-year Life Expectancy Research Articles

Enhanced deep bottleneck transformer model for skin lesion classification

Background and objectives:Skin cancer is the most common cancer worldwide, and therein the malignant melanoma may lead to less than 5-year life expectancy. Via early-stage detection and recognition, even the deadliest melanoma can be cured to greatly increase the patient’s survival rate. Recently dermoscopy imaging is capable of capturing high-resolution magnified images of the infected skin region to automatic lesion classification, and deep learning network has been witnessed great potential of accurately recognizing different types of skin lesions. This study aims to exploit a novel deep model to enhance the skin lesion recognition performance. Methods:In spite of the remarkable progress, the existing deep network based methods naively deploy the proposed network architectures in generic image classification to the skin lesion classification, and there has still large space for performance improvement. This study presents an enhanced deep bottleneck transformer model, which incorporates self-attention to model the global correlation of the extracted features from the conventional deep models, for boosting the skin lesion performance. Specifically, we exploit an enhanced transformer module via incorporating a dual position encoding module to integrate encoded position vector on both key and query vectors for balance learning. By replacing the bottleneck spatial convolutions of the late-stage blocks in the baseline deep networks with the enhanced module, we construct a novel deep skin lesion classification model to lift the skin lesion classification performance. Results:We conduct extensive experiments on two benchmark skin lesion datasets: ISIC2017 and HAM10000 to verify the recognition performance of different deep models. The three quantitative metrics of accuracy, sensitivity and specificity on the ISIC2017 dataset with our method reach to 92.1%, 90.1% and 91.9%, respectively, which manifests very good balance result between the sensitivity and specificity, while the results on the accuracy and precision for the HAM10000 dataset are 95.84% and 96.1%. Conclusions:Results on both datasets have demonstrated that our proposed model can achieve superior performance over the baseline models as well as the state-of-the-art methods. This superior results using the incorporated model of the transformer of convolution module would inspire further research on the wide application of the transformer-based block for the real scenario without large-scale dataset.

Race/Ethnicity may be an Important Predictor of Life Expectancy in Localized Prostate Cancer Patients: Novel Analyses Using Social Security Administration Life Tables

PurposeTo test the effect of race/ethnicity on Social Security Administration (SSA) life tables’ life expectancy (LE) predictions in localized prostate cancer (PCa) patients treated with either radical prostatectomy (RP) or external beam radiotherapy (EBRT). We hypothesized that LE will be affected by race/ethnicity.Patients and MethodsWe relied on the 2004–2006 Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database to identify D’Amico intermediate- and high-risk PCa patients treated with either RP or EBRT. SSA life tables were used to compute 10-year LE predictions and were compared to OS. Stratification was performed according to treatment type (RP/EBRT) and race/ethnicity (non-Hispanic White, non-Hispanic Black, Hispanic/Latino, and Asian).ResultsOf 55,383 assessable patients, 40,490 were non-Hispanic White (RP 49.3% vs. EBRT 50.7%), 7194 non-Hispanic Black (RP 41.3% vs. EBRT 50.7%), 4716 Hispanic/Latino (RP 51.0% vs. EBRT 49.0%) and 2983 were Asian (RP 41.6% vs. EBRT 58.4%). In both RP and EBRT patients, OS exceeded life tables’ LE predictions, except for non-Hispanic Blacks. However, in RP patients, the magnitude of the difference was greater than in EBRT. Moreover, in RP patients, OS of non-Hispanic Blacks virtually perfectly followed predicted LE. Conversely, in EBRT patients, the OS of non-Hispanic Black patients was worse than predicted LE.ConclusionsWhen comparing SEER-derived observed OS with SSA life table–derived predicted life expectancy, we recorded a survival disadvantage in non-Hispanic Black RP and EBRT patients, which was not the case in the three other races/ethnicities (non-Hispanic Whites, Hispanic/Latinos, and Asians). This discrepancy should ideally be confirmed within different registries, countries, and tumor entities. Furthermore, the source of these discrepant survival outcomes should be investigated and addressed by health care politics.

Decision Analysis for Unrelated Bone Marrow Transplantation or Immediate Cord Blood Transplantation for Patients with Philadelphia Chromosome-Negative Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia in First Complete Remission

An HLA-matched relative is the first-choice donor for patients with Philadelphia chromosome (Ph)-negative acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) in first complete remission (CR1). The most promising alternative donor is thought to be an HLA-matched unrelated donor (MUD) in patients who do not have an HLA-matched related donor. Cord blood transplantation (CBT) is an alternative option. Higher rates of engraftment failure and nonrelapse mortality (NRM) are significant problems, but the ready availability of cord blood can be an advantage, because patients can immediately undergo transplantation before progression. This study was conducted to identify an appropriate alternative donor in patients with Ph-negative ALL in CR1 who do not have an HLA-matched related donor (MRD). Decision analyses using a Markov model were performed to compare immediate CBT, in which CBT was performed at 1 month after the achievement of CR1, with elective unrelated bone marrow transplantation (uBMT) from an 8/8 MUD (8/8 uBMT) or uBMT from a 7/8 MUD (7/8 uBMT), in which uBMT was performed at 4 months, in patients age 16 to 55 years with Ph-negative ALL in CR1 who did not have an MRD. We constructed a decision tree. The cycle length was set at 3 months, and analyses were performed for 19 cycles for uBMT and 20 cycles for CBT, resulting in evaluation of the 5-year life expectancy after both decisions. Transition probabilities (TPs) and utilities were estimated from prospective and retrospective Japanese studies and the registry database of Japan. Subgroup analyses were performed according to risk stratification based on WBC count and cytogenetics at diagnosis and according to age stratification, with a cutoff of 25 years. One-way sensitivity analyses for TPs and utilities were performed as well. The baseline analyses showed that 8/8 uBMT or 7/8 uBMT had superior results to CBT, with quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) of 2.86 in 8/8 uBMT, 2.84 in 7/8 uBMT, and 2.75 in CBT. One-way sensitivity analyses showed that the results of the baseline analyses were reversed if the probability of NRM in CBT improved. Subgroup analyses showed similar results in younger, older, and high-risk patients. However, QALY was worse in 8/8 uBMT compared with CBT in standard-risk patients. In one-way sensitivity analyses, the probabilities of NRM in uBMT and CBT affected the baseline results in all analyses except for comparisons between 8/8 uBMT and CBT in younger and high-risk patients. In these 2 populations, the superiority of 8/8 uBMT was consistently demonstrated throughout the one-way sensitivity analyses. For patients with Ph-negative ALL in CR1 who decide to undergo transplantation from an alternative donor, elective uBMT from either an 8/8 MUD or a 7/8 MUD is expected to yield a better outcome than immediate CBT. Nonetheless, CBT is a viable option, and improvements to reduce the risk of NRM in CBT may change these results.

Life expectancy estimates based on comorbidities and frailty to inform preventive care.

Long-term prognostication is important to inform preventive care in older adults. Existing prediction indices incorporate age and comorbidities. Frailty is another important factor in prognostication. In this project, we aimed at developing life expectancy estimates that incorporate both comorbidities and frailty. In this retrospective cohort study, we used data from a 5% sample of Medicare beneficiaries with and without history of cancer from Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) cancer registry areas. We included adults aged 66-95 years who were continuously enrolled in fee-for-service Medicare for ≥1year from 1998 to 2014. Participants were followed for survival until 12/31/2015, death, or disenrollment. Comorbidity (none, low/medium, high) and frailty categories (low, high) were defined using established methods for claims. We estimated 5- and 10-year survival probabilities and median life expectancies by age, sex, comorbidities, and frailty. The study included 479,646 individuals (4,128,316 person-years), of whom most were women (58.7%). Frailty scores varied widely among participants in the same comorbidity category. In Cox models, both comorbidities and frailty were independent predictors of mortality. Individuals with high comorbidities (HR, 3.24; 95% CI, 3.20-3.28) and low/medium comorbidities (HR, 1.36; 95% CI, 1.34-1.39) had higher risks of death than those with no comorbidities. Compared to low frailty, high frailty was associated with higher risk of death (HR, 1.55; 95% CI, 1.52-1.58). Frailty affected life expectancy estimates in ways relevant to preventive care (i.e., distinguishing <10-year versus >10-year life expectancy) in multiple subgroups. Incorporating both comorbidities and frailty may be important in estimating long-term life expectancies of older adults. Our life expectancy tables can aid clinicians' prognostication and inform simulation models and population health management.

AUTHOR REPLY

There is considerable controversy over the ability of physicians to estimate life expectancy. In this manuscript, we demonstrate that the Care Assessment Needs (CAN) score can be used to improve estimates of 5-year life expectancy in men diagnosed with prostate cancer in the Veterans Health Administration (VHA). The CAN score has several advantages. First, repurposing an already available tool does simplify efforts to implement the CAN score into routine clinical practice within the VHA system. Second, it incorporates key variables that are commonly available in electronic health records systems and therefore could be replicated in other institutions.

The potential effect and delivery of piperine on breast cancer

Breast cancer is the most common malignancy in women worldwide. Breast cancer is associated with a high mortality rate and health-related economic burden. Breast cancer patients have a low 5-year life expectancy when diagnosed at advanced stages. Besides, the emergence of chemoresistance in breast cancer has led to an intense search for alternative anticancer agents. One of the potential anticancer compounds is Piperine. Several studies had found that Piperine has anticancer effects such as anti-proliferation, induces apoptosis, anti-migration or anti-metastasis, chemo-enhancer or chemosensitizer, cytotoxic agents, anti-angiogenesis, immune response modulators, and self-renewal inhibitor for cancer stem cells. Several delivery agents such as PLGA, PEG-PLGA and liposomes have been studied to improve Piperine's delivery and have shown good results. Therefore, the combination of Piperine and nanoparticles is a potential anticancer agent, especially in breast cancer.

10-Year Follow-Up After Revascularization in Elderly Patients With Complex Coronary Artery Disease

BackgroundThe optimal revascularization strategy for the elderly with complex coronary artery disease remains unclear. ObjectivesThe goal of this study was to investigate 10-year all-cause mortality, life expectancy, 5-year major adverse cardiac or cerebrovascular events (MACCE), and 5-year quality of life (QOL) after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) or coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) in elderly individuals (>70 years old) with 3-vessel disease (3VD) and/or left main disease (LMD). MethodsIn the present pre-specified analysis on age of the SYNTAX Extended Survival study, 10-year all-cause death and 5-year MACCE were compared with Kaplan-Meier estimates and Cox proportional hazards models among elderly or nonelderly patients. Life expectancy was estimated by restricted mean survival time within 10 years, and QOL status according to the Seattle Angina Questionnaire up to 5 years was assessed by linear mixed-effects models. ResultsAmong 1,800 randomized patients, 575 patients (31.9%) were elderly. Ten-year mortality did not differ significantly between PCI and CABG in elderly (44.1% vs. 41.1%; hazard ratio [HR]: 1.08; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.84 to 1.40) and nonelderly patients (21.1% vs. 16.6%; HR: 1.30; 95% CI: 1.00 to 1.69; pinteraction = 0.332). Among elderly patients, 5-year MACCE was comparable between PCI and CABG (39.4% vs. 35.1%; HR: 1.18; 95% CI: 0.90 to 1.56), whereas it was significantly higher in PCI over CABG among nonelderly patients (36.3% vs. 23.0%; HR: 1.69; 95% CI: 1.36 to 2.10; pinteraction = 0.043). There were no significant difference in life expectancy (mean difference: 0.2 years in favor of CABG; 95% CI: −0.4 to 0.7) and 5-year QOL status between PCI and CABG among elderly patients. ConclusionsElderly patients with 3VD and/or LMD had comparable 10-year all-cause death, life expectancy, 5-year MACCE, and 5-year QOL status irrespective of revascularization mode. (Synergy Between PCI With TAXUS and Cardiac Surgery: SYNTAX Extended Survival [SYNTAXES]; NCT03417050) (SYNTAX Study: TAXUS Drug-Eluting Stent Versus Coronary Artery Bypass Surgery for the Treatment of Narrowed Arteries [SYNTAX]; NCT00114972)

Life expectancy in metastatic prostate cancer patients according to racial/ethnic groups.

To quantify the magnitude of differences between observed overall survival and respective, age-adjusted Social Security Administration life tables-derived life expectancy in Caucasian, African American, Hispanic/Latino and Asian metastatic prostate cancer patients. Furthermore, to test for differences in cancer-specific mortality and other-cause mortality according to race/ethnicity. We relied on the 2004-2006 Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results database to identify Caucasian, African American, Hispanic/Latino and Asian metastatic prostate cancer patients. Social Security Administration life tables were used to compute 10-year life expectancy for comparisons with observed overall survival. Poisson regression plots showed cancer-specific mortality relative to other-cause mortality for each race/ethnicity. A total of 2574 (64.2%) patients were Caucasian, 753 (18.8%) were African American, 453 (11.3%) were Hispanic/Latino and 227 (5.7%) were Asian, respectively. The median age at diagnosis was 72years in Caucasian patients, 68years in African American patients, 70years in Hispanic/Latino patients and 72years in Asian patients. Observed overall survival rates were always lower compared with respective predicted life expectancy. The magnitude of the difference between observed overall survival and predicted life expectancy at 10years was highest in African American patients (-52.2%), followed by Caucasian patients (-48.3%), Hispanic/Latino patients (-46.1%) and Asian patients (-37.4%). African American patients showed the highest cancer-specific mortality rates (71.1%) and second-highest other-cause mortality rates (17.4% vs highest 18.4% in Caucasian patients), despite having the youngest age at diagnosis. Asian patients showed the lowest cancer-specific mortality rates (65.5%, P<0.0001) and lowest other-cause mortality rates (13.3%, P=0.04), despite having the oldest age at diagnosis. Despite having the youngest age at diagnosis, African American patients show the least favorable survival profile in metastatic prostate cancer. Conversely, Asian patients show the most favorable survival profile in metastatic prostate cancer, despite having the oldest age at diagnosis.

Existing Crisis Standards of Care Triage Protocols May Not Significantly Differentiate Between Patients With Coronavirus Disease 2019 Who Require Intensive Care.

Objectives:To determine how several existing crisis standards of care triage protocols would have distinguished between patients with coronavirus disease 2019 requiring intensive care.Design:Retrospective cohort study.Setting:Single urban academic medical center.Patients:One-hundred twenty patients with coronavirus disease 2019 who required intensive care and mechanical ventilation.Interventions:None.Measurements and Main Results:The characteristics of each patient at the time of ICU triage were used to determine how patients would have been prioritized using four crisis standards of care protocols. The vast majority of patients in the cohort would have been in the highest priority group using a triage protocol focusing on Sequential Organ Failure Assessment alone. Prioritization based on Sequential Organ Failure Assessment and 1-year life expectancy would have resulted in only slightly more differentiation between patients. Prioritization based on Sequential Organ Failure Assessment and 5-year life expectancy would have added significant additional differentiation depending on how priority groups were defined.Conclusions:There is considerable controversy regarding the use of criteria other than prognosis for short-term survival in initial allocation of critical care resources under crisis standards of care triage protocols. To the extent that initial triage protocols would not create sufficient differentiation between patients, effectively resulting in a first-come, first-served initial allocation of resources, it is important to focus on how resources would be reallocated in the event of ongoing scarcity.

Assessing the appropriateness of colorectal cancer screening in very elderly women: A cross-sectional analysis

The Canadian Task Force on Preventive Health Care recommends against screening for colorectal cancer after age 75. This recommendation is based in part on lag time to mortality benefit and a reduced life expectancy in the very elderly. To explore the extent to which screening for colorectal cancer is appropriately ordered in primary care, we performed a cross sectional study in women aged 80-84 at an academic family medicine clinic in Montreal. Appropriateness was assessed using a validated life expectancy calculator, with a 10-year life expectancy of &gt;50% serving as the threshold for appropriateness. Among women 80-84 years of age under the care of a physician in 2016 (N=144), 95 fecal immunochemical tests were ordered from 2016-2019. Of these, 41 were screening tests, and 16/41 (39%; 95% CI 24% to 54%) were deemed to be inappropriate. This finding suggests a need to improve screening decisions for elderly women followed in primary care.

Talking about the 'r' word: a right to a health system that is free of racism.

Australia's local, state, territory and federal governments have agreed that the 10-year life expectancy gap between Indigenous and non-Indigenous Australians will be closed by 2031. However, annual Closing the Gap reports tabled by the various prime ministers in the Australian Parliament (for the past 12 years) have consistently indicated that the life expectancy gap continues to widen. Australia has seen more than three decades of government policies since the landmark 1989 National Aboriginal health strategy. What has been missing from these policy commitments is the genuine enactment of the knowledges that are held by Indigenous Australians relating to their cultural ways of being, knowing and doing. Privileging Indigenous knowledges, cultures and voices must be front and centre in developing, designing and implementing policies and programs. The sharing of power, provision of resources, culturally informed reflective policy making, and program design are critical elements. In this paper, we provide a conceptual model of practice, working at the cultural interface where knowledges are valued and innovations can occur. This model of practice is where knowledges and cultures can co-exist, and it could be the answer to Closing the Gap in life expectancy by 2031. Despite a growing willingness and need to consider these models, there remains a deep-seated resistance to identifying and addressing institutional and systemic racism and racist attitudes, including unconscious biases held by individuals. Further, western non-Indigenous worldviews of ways of being, knowing and doing continue to dominate the decisions and actions of governments - and consequentially dominate public health policies and practices. There is an unacceptable standard approach, for and about Indigenous health instead of with Indigenous peoples, resulting in the neglectful dismissal of Indigenous knowledges and Indigenous cultures of ways of being, knowing and doing.

Predicting Life Expectancy Using Veterans Affairs Electronic Health Record Data

Electronic health records (EHRs) are a rich source of health data that could be used to create individualized life expectancy predictions to aid in clinical decision-making for long-term preventative treatments, such as cancer screening. Few previous studies have incorporated all possible predictors from the EHR. We aimed to screen and incorporate a large number of possible predictors from EHR data into a life expectancy (LE) prediction equation. Using the national Veteran’s Affairs (VA) EHR databases, we identified all patients aged 50+ with a primary care visit during 2005 and assessed demographics, diseases, medications, laboratory results, healthcare utilization, and vital signs during the one year prior to the visit. Mortality follow-up was complete through 2017. We used an 80% random sample for model development and a 20% random sample for model validation. We used a Gompertz survival model with backwards selection to identify approximately 100 variables for the final LE prediction equation. In 1,263,595 VA patients, the mean age was 68 years and the majority were male (94%) and white (87%). During 12 years of follow-up, 602,576 (47.7%) died. Of 930 predictors from the EHR, 99 were included in the LE prediction equation. Harrell’s C-statistic was 0.7705 (95%CI: 0.7693, 0.7718). The model estimated 10-year life expectancy with sensitivity of 81.6% (81.4%, 81.8%) and specificity of 68.8% (68.5%, 69.1%). In conclusion, we developed an LE prediction equation from hundreds of predictors in the VA EHR with good discrimination and calibration that may help clinicians weigh the potential benefit of long-term preventative treatments.

Decision analysis and personalized clinical tool for cerebrospinal fluid drains in thoracoabdominal aortic aneurysms repair.

The routine use of cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) drainage in patients undergoing operative repair of thoracoabdominal aneurysms (TAAA) has been associated with decreased rates of spinal cord ischemia. The use of CSF drains is not without consequence, howeverwith complications including subarachnoid hemorrhage, epidural hematoma, meningitis, and, in 1% of cases, death. To date, a decision analysis tool to help clinicians decide when to use and not to use a CSF drain does not exist. In this analysis, we set out to develop a decision analysis tool for CSF drain placement in patients undergoing operative repair of TAAA. A Markov state-transition cohort model that compared TAAA repair with adjunctive CSF drain insertion to TAAA repair without drain insertion for the outcome of life expectancy was developed in TreeAge 2020. The cycle length was 1 month and the time horizon was 60 months. The use of a CSF drain was associated with improved 5-year life expectancy (3.21 ± 0.10 vs. 3.09 ± 0.11 life-years gained). In the sensitivity analysis that varied the effectiveness of a CSF drain (odds ratio closer to 1 = less effective), the use of a CSF drain resulted in higher life expectancy in almost all scenarios. The routine use of a CSF drain in patients undergoing TAAA repair is safe and effective, with few exceptions. This decision analysis tool can be used by clinicians to develop a personalized approach.

Charlson Comorbidity Index Is a Useful Predictor of Patients Death Prior to Interval Colonoscopy (Poster Presentation)

Societal recommendations rely on age and life expectancy to guide clinicians on the potential mortality benefit of continued colorectal cancer (CRC) screening. Up to 40% of patients undergoing screening colonoscopy have less than a 10-year life expectancy, highlighting this clinical challenge. The Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) has been utilized to prognosticate mortality for a number of conditions but has not been examined for use in screening colonoscopy recommendations. We sought to examine whether CCI could be used to predict patient death (i.e., patients who should discontinue colonoscopy) prior to the recommended screening or surveillance procedure.

A Strategy to Prepare Primary Care Clinicians for Discussing Stopping Cancer Screening With Adults Older Than 75 Years.

Background and ObjectivesAdults older than 75 years are overscreened for cancer, especially those with less than 10-year life expectancy. This study aimed to learn the effects of providing primary care providers (PCPs) with scripts for discussing stopping mammography and colorectal cancer (CRC) screening and with information on patient’s 10-year life expectancy on their patients’ intentions to be screened for these cancers.Research Design and MethodsPatient participants, identified via PCP appointment logs, completed a questionnaire pre- and postvisit. Primary care providers were given scripts for discussing stopping screening and information on patient’s 10-year life expectancy before these visits. Primary care providers completed a questionnaire at the end of the study. Patients and PCPs were asked about discussing stopping cancer screening and patient life expectancy. Patient screening intentions (1–15 Likert scale; lower scores suggest lower intentions) were compared pre- and postvisit using the Wilcoxon signed-rank test.ResultsNinety patients older than 75 years (47% of eligible patients reached by phone) from 45 PCPs participated. Patient mean age was 80.0 years (SD = 2.9), 43 (48%) were female, and mean life expectancy was 9.7 years (SD = 2.4). Thirty-seven PCPs (12 community-based) completed a questionnaire. Primary care providers found the scripts helpful (32 [89%]) and thought they would use them frequently (29 [81%]). Primary care providers also found patient life expectancy information helpful (35 [97%]). However, only 8 PCPs (22%) reported feeling comfortable discussing patient life expectancy. Patients’ intentions to undergo CRC screening (9.0 [SD = 5.3] to 6.5 [SD = 6.0], p < .0001) and mammography screening (12.9 [SD = 3.0] to 11.7 [SD = 4.9], p = .08) decreased from pre- to postvisit (significantly for CRC). Sixty-three percent of patients (54/86) were interested in discussing life expectancy with their PCP previsit and 56% (47/84) postvisit.Discussion and ImplicationsPCPs found scripts for discussing stopping cancer screening and information on patient life expectancy helpful. Possibly, as a result, their patients older than 75 years had lower intentions of being screened for CRC.Clinical Trials Registration NumberNCT03480282

Effect of a Mammography Screening Decision Aid for Women 75 Years and Older

Guidelines recommend that women 75 years and older be informed of the benefits and harms of mammography before screening. To test the effects of receipt of a paper-based mammography screening decision aid (DA) for women 75 years and older on their screening decisions. A cluster randomized clinical trial with clinician as the unit of randomization. All analyses were completed on an intent-to-treat basis. The setting was 11 primary care practices in Massachusetts or North Carolina. Of 1247 eligible women reached, 546 aged 75 to 89 years without breast cancer or dementia who had a mammogram within 24 months but not within 6 months and saw 1 of 137 clinicians (herein referred to as PCPs) from November 3, 2014, to January 26, 2017, participated. A research assistant (RA) administered a previsit questionnaire on each participant's health, breast cancer risk factors, sociodemographic characteristics, and screening intentions. After the visit, the RA administered a postvisit questionnaire on screening intentions and knowledge. Receipt of the DA (DA arm) or a home safety (HS) pamphlet (control arm) before a PCP visit. Participants were followed up for 18 months for receipt of mammography screening (primary outcome). To examine the effects of the DA, marginal logistic regression models were fit using generalized estimating equations to allow for clustering by PCP. Adjusted probabilities and risk differences were estimated to account for clustering by PCP. Of 546 women in the study, 283 (51.8%) received the DA. Patients in each arm were well matched; their mean (SD) age was 79.8 (3.7) years, 428 (78.4%) were non-Hispanic white, 321 (of 543 [59.1%]) had completed college, and 192 (35.2%) had less than a 10-year life expectancy. After 18 months, 9.1% (95% CI, 1.2%-16.9%) fewer women in the DA arm than in the control arm had undergone mammography screening (51.3% vs 60.4%; adjusted risk ratio, 0.84; 95% CI, 0.75-0.95; P = .006). Women in the DA arm were more likely than those in the control arm to rate their screening intentions lower from previsit to postvisit (69 of 283 [adjusted %, 24.5%] vs 47 of 263 [adjusted %, 15.3%]), to be more knowledgeable about the benefits and harms of screening (86 [adjusted %, 25.5%] vs 32 [adjusted %, 11.7%]), and to have a documented discussion about mammography with their PCP (146 [adjusted %, 47.4%] vs 111 [adjusted %, 38.9%]). Almost all women in the DA arm (94.9%) would recommend the DA. Providing women 75 years and older with a mammography screening DA before a PCP visit helps them make more informed screening decisions and leads to fewer women choosing to be screened, suggesting that the DA may help reduce overscreening. ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02198690.

Prostate Cancer in Men With Treated Advanced Heart Failure: Should we Keep Screening?

To evaluate the outcomes of men diagnosed with prostate cancer (CaP) following implanted treatments for advanced heart failure. Given the increasingly favorable 10-year life expectancy, MedStar Washington Hospital Center screens heart transplant (HT) candidates for CaP and other malignancies prior to intervention. Men aged 18-90 with available pretransplant Prostate Specific Antigen (PSA) who underwent left ventricular assist device (LVAD) and/or HT at MedStar Washington Hospital Center from 2007 to 2018 were identified. Serum PSA, CaP diagnosis, and treatment were captured and analyzed. Survival was analyzed using Kaplan-Meier curves. Data were available for 34 patients. Median age was 53 [IQR=51-58]. Median follow-up was 77 months (95% CI=40-87 months). Six men had postimplant elevated PSA (5.3; SD=8.5) and 4 were diagnosed with CaP. Median age of CaP diagnosis was 59 [IQR=58.5-62). As of 2018, 31 of the 34 patients were living, and none died from CaP. Five-year survival was 96% in those without CaP and 100% in those with CaP (Figure 2). Our cohort represents the largest known cohort with heart failure treated by LVAD and/or HT and CaP. Our median age of 59 at CaP diagnosis is considerably younger than the national median of 66.1 Of the 4 individuals diagnosed with CaP, 3 had high-grade disease. Given the favorable long-term survival of these patients post-LVAD and/or HT, age-appropriate treatment for CaP should be continued postimplantation.

External Validation of the Prostate Cancer Specific Comorbidity Index: A Claims Based Tool for the Prediction of Life Expectancy in Men with Prostate Cancer.

Accurate assessment of life expectancy is critical to treatment decision making in men with prostate cancer. We sought to externally validate the PCCI (Prostate Cancer Comorbidity Index) to predict long-term mortality in men with prostate cancer and make it operational using claims data. We performed an observational study of 181,009 men with prostate cancer in the Veterans Affairs Health System who were diagnosed from 2000 to 2013. Overall mortality across the PCCI scores was analyzed using Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional hazards analysis. Discrimination and calibration were measured using the C-index and the mean prediction error, respectively. Among men with a PCCI score of 0, 1-2, 3-4, 5-6, 7-9 and 10 or greater the 10-year overall mortality rate was 15%, 26%, 36%, 41%, 52% and 69%, respectively. Multivariable Cox analysis showed an increasing hazard of mortality with higher PCCI scores, including 1.22 (95% CI 1.18-1.27), 1.69 (95% CI 1.61-1.76), 2.08 (95% CI 2.00-2.17), 2.88 (95% CI 2.76-3.00) and 4.50 (95% CI 4.32-4.69) for a score of 1 to 2, 3 to 4, 5 to 6, 7 to 9 and 10 or greater, respectively. The C-index to predict overall mortality was 0.773. The mean absolute error to predict 10-year overall mortality was 0.032. Of the men with clinically localized disease, Gleason 6 or less with less than 10-year life expectancy and Gleason 7 or less with life expectancy less than 5 years as defined by the PCCI 3,999 of 12,185 (33%) and 1,038 of 3,930 (26%), respectively, underwent definitive local treatment. The PCCI is a claims based, externally validated tool to predict mortality in men with prostate cancer. Integrating the PCCI into clinical pathways may improve prostate cancer management through more accurate assessment of life expectancy.

Are We Choosing Wisely? Older Adults' Cancer Screening Intentions and Recalled Discussions with Physicians About Stopping.

National guidelines recommend against cancer screening for older individuals with less than a 10-year life expectancy, but it is unknown if this population desires ongoing screening. To determine (1) if older individuals with < 10-year life expectancy have future intentions for cancer screening, (2) if they recall a doctor previously suggesting that screening is no longer needed, and (3) individual characteristics associated with intentions to seek screening. National Social life Health and Aging Project (2015-2016), a nationally representative, cross-sectional survey. Community-dwelling adults 55-97years old (n = 3816). Self-reported: (1) mammography and PSA testing within the last 2years, (2) future intentions to be screened, and (3) discussion with a doctor that screening is no longer needed. Ten-year life expectancy was estimated using the Lee prognostic index. Multivariate logistic regression analysis examined intentions to pursue future screening, adjusting for sociodemographic and health covariates. Among women 75-84 with < 10-year life expectancy, 59% intend on future mammography and 81% recall no conversation with a doctor that mammography may no longer be necessary. Among men 75-84 with < 10-year life expectancy, 54% intend on future PSA screening and 77% recall no discussions that PSA screening may be unnecessary. In adjusted analyses, those reporting recent cancer screening or no recollection that screening may not be necessary were more likely to want future mammography or PSA screening (p < 0.001). Over 75% of older individuals with limited life expectancy intend to continue cancer screening, and less than 25% recall discussing with physicians the need for these tests. In addition to public health and education efforts, these results suggest that older adults' recollection of being told by physicians that screening is not necessary may be a modifiable risk factor for reducing overscreening in older adults with limited life expectancy.

External validation of a nomogram for the prediction of 10-year life expectancy in candidates for radical prostatectomy

Accurate life expectancy prediction is essential in decision-making concerning treatment of clinically localized prostate cancer (PCa). Nomogram predictions are more precise and reproducible than clinician's estimations. The most accurate nomogram addressing 10-year life expectancy in PCa patients has not been externally validated to date. Therefore, we aimed to evaluate the performance of this nomogram in a contemporary external cohort. For this, we enrolled all consecutive patients, who underwent radical prostatectomy at a single institution between 2005 and 2007. Age at surgery and Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) were assessed. PCa-related deaths and patients under 55years were excluded as indicated by the nomogram. The prediction of 10-year life expectancy was calculated according to the nomogram and compared to actual survival data. Calibration and discrimination were assessed using calibration plots. Overall, 1597 patients were evaluated, with a median age of 64years (range 55-78years) at surgery and a median follow-up of 134.4months (range 0.1-161.7months). Median CCI was 0 (range 0-10). At 10years, 134 patients (8.4%) had died of other causes than PCa. The nomogram showed moderate discrimination capacities on receiver-operator characteristic analysis (c-index: 0.64). On calibration curves, the nomogram underestimated the actual life expectancy. The performance accuracy of this prediction model was moderate and underestimated 10-year life expectancy of contemporary PCa patients. In conclusion, prediction of life expectancy remains challenging with a continued need for more precise tools.