10-year Cardiovascular Disease Risk Score Research Articles

The trend of 10-year cardiovascular risk among diabetic and non-diabetic participants in Tehran Lipid and glucose study: 1999\u20132018

BackgroundAssessing the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) is crucial in preventive cardiology. We aimed to determine the trend of CVD risk among individuals with and without diabetes during two decades of follow-up in a Middle Eastern cohort.MethodsWe studied 8,450 individuals (55.5% women) aged 40–75 years who participated in the Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study (TLGS). Diabetes status and CVD risk factors were evaluated in six examinations from 1999 to 2018. The individual 10-year CVD risk score was calculated using the ACC/AHA recommended risk equation. We used generalized estimating equation models (GEE) to assess the time trends of CVD risk factors and CVD risk scores in diabetic and non-diabetic groups separately.ResultsThe age-adjusted ACC/AHA risk score significantly decreased in non-diabetic women and men (from 3.2% to 1.6% in women and 6.8% to 5.0% in men; p for trend < 0.001). Whereas the risk significantly decreased among diabetics men (from 13.8% to 11.5%), it increased somehow among diabetics women (from 5.3% to 5.5%). Furthermore, in both sexes, diabetic individuals compared to non-diabetic ones had better control on their systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, and fasting plasma glucose during the last two decades.ConclusionsThe CVD risk and most CVD risk factors improved in individuals with and without diabetes in the past two decades; however, they have not reached the targets yet. So, more stringent lifestyle modifications and treatment strategies are needed, especially for primary prevention in the general population.

Potential of four definitions of metabolic syndrome to discriminate individuals with different 10-year cardiovascular disease risk scores: a cross-sectional analysis of an Iranian cohort

ObjectiveWe aimed to reveal the potential of four different metabolic syndrome (Mets) definitions to differentiate subjects according to 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease.DesignA cross-sectional analysis of a prospective cohort.SettingThis study...

Analysis of Specialist and Patient Perspectives on Strategies to Improve Cardiovascular Disease Prevention Among Persons With Psoriatic Disease

Patients with psoriatic disease are at increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD), which is a leading cause of mortality in this population. However, many of these patients do not have an active relationship with a primary care physician, and there may be a role for specialist-led care in prevention of CVD. To explore clinician and patient perspectives regarding strategies to improve CVD prevention via specialist-led care. Using electronically collected surveys, a best-worst scaling experimental survey study was conducted among dermatologists through the National Psoriasis Foundation as well as the American Academy of Dermatology from October 27, 2020, to April 1, 2021, to rank the strategies according to their potential to improve CVD prevention among patients with psoriatic disease. Participants were asked about the feasibility of specialist-led screening through an electronically delivered survey from the National Psoriasis Foundation conducted between February 1 and April 21, 2021. Patients with psoriatic disease were asked about whether they would like the specialist to screen for CVD risk factors. In addition, patients reported their likelihood to engage in CVD risk screening and management behaviors in scenarios in which either the primary care physician or specialist was making the recommendations. For the clinician surveys, the primary outcome was the ratio scaled preference score (range, 0-100; higher is more preferred), as well as whether they think calculating a 10-year CVD risk score and prescribing statins seems feasible. For the patient surveys, the primary outcome was the likelihood to check cholesterol level, incorporate diet and exercise, or use statin therapy depending on whether recommended by the specialist or primary care physician, whether they would like their specialist to educate them about CVD risk, and whether they would find it convenient to have their cholesterol level checked by their specialist. Among 183 dermatologists (102 [55.7%] women; mean [SD] age not collected), clinical decision support (preference score, 22.3; 95% CI, 20.7-24.0), patient education (preference score, 14.1; 95% CI, 12.5-15.7), and clinician education (preference score, 15.8; 95% CI, 14.3-17.3) were ranked as strategies likely to improve CVD prevention in patients with psoriatic disease. In addition, 69.3% (95% CI, 62.2%-76.0%) of dermatologists agreed or strongly agreed that checking lipid levels was feasible. Among 160 patients with psoriasis and 162 patients with psoriatic arthritis (226 [70.2%] women; mean [SD] age, 54 [13.3] years), patients reported they were as likely to engage in cardiovascular risk screening and management behaviors whether recommended by their primary care physician or their specialist. In addition, 60.0% (95% CI, 52.0%-67.7%) of patients with psoriasis and 75.3% (95% CI, 67.9%-81.7%) of those with psoriatic arthritis agreed that it would be convenient for them to have their cholesterol checked by their dermatologist/rheumatologist. In this survey study, dermatologists and patients with psoriatic disease expressed positive perspectives about engaging in a specialist-led model of care to improve CVD prevention. Dermatologists appear to view several strategies as having potential to improve cardiovascular risk prevention.

Assessment of cardiovascular risk factors among HIV-infected patients aged 50 years and older in Cameroon.

Increasing the longevity of people living with HIV (PLHIV) around the world has been accompanied by an increase in the prevalence of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors and morbidity. The impact of these trends on the epidemiology of CVD among PLHIV is less clear. The aim of this study was to assess the risk factors for CVD, and to estimate these risks at 10 years in PLHIV aged 50 and above. This was a descriptive and analytical study carried out at Mvog Ada District Hospital in Yaounde, Cameroon from January 2020 to January 2021. Descriptive bivariate analyses were used to present the data. The data are presented as frequencies and percentages for categorical variables, and in terms of means and standard deviations for continuous variables where appropriate. The 10-year CVD risk score was calculated using two tools: the validated Framingham risk score (FRS) (low < 10%, moderate 10-20% and high ≥ 20%) and SCORE score (SSC) (low < 3%, moderate 3-4% and high ≥ 5%). Multiple logistic regression models were constructed to examine the respective relationships between the binary dependent variable high CVD risk (FRS ≥ 20%) and the population group, alcohol consumption (more than 10 glasses of beer per week, or more than 35.7 cl/day) and hypertriglyceridemia (independent variables). A p-value less than or equal to 0.05 was considered statistically significant. A total of 112 people aged 50 and above were enrolled in the study out of 180 people registered at the HIV care unit, that is a participation rate of 62.22%. The average age of the participants was 57.3 ± 6.4 years, and the female/male ratio was 1.6. The majority of participants (53.57%) had normal glycaemia levels (<1.10 g/L), 4.46% were diabetic and 46.40% had high blood pressure. The adherence rate for ARV treatment was 98.20%; most participants (77.20%) were alcohol consumers, and 28.10% of participants had hypertriglyceridemia. The estimates of overall cardiovascular risk in 10 years presented 50.90% of participants with low risk, 33% with moderate risk and 16.10% with high risk. Our study indicated an overall risk of cardiovascular events in 10 years is 16.10%, with the main conditional risk factor being hypertriglyceridemia and alcohol consumption, which appeared to triple the risk of CVD among PLHIV.

Cardiometabolic health risks, lifestyle behaviours and quality of life in people diagnosed with early psychosis – A cross‐sectional study

WHAT IS KNOWN ON THE SUBJECT?: People diagnosed with schizophrenia have poor cardiometabolic health, with elevated 10-year cardiovascular disease risk (CVD-R) scores and low quality of life (QOL). There is a lack of understanding about CVD-R scores in people diagnosed with early psychosis and no studies have quantified CVD-R using the QRISK® 3calculator in this client group. Establishing potential relationships between modifiable lifestyle behaviours/treatment characteristics with CVD-R or QOL may identify targets for early intervention. WHAT THE PAPER ADDS TO EXISTING KNOWLEDGE?: This is the first study to quantify the individual 10-year CVD-R of people diagnosed with early psychosis utilising the QRISK® 3calculator. This is also the first study to investigate relationships between QOL and CVD-R and lifestyle factors in a cohort of Thai people diagnosed with early psychosis. We observed low levels of physical health-related QOL and high levels of CVR-R despite participants reporting relatively positive lifestyle behaviours. WHAT ARE THE IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTICE?: The cardiometabolic health state of this client group warrants as much attention as for those with an enduring severe mental illness; early preventative interventions are warranted. It may be useful to routinely quantify the CVD-R of people diagnosed with early psychosis using the QRISK® 3calculator, even in the absence of immediate concerns about lifestyle behaviours. Mental health nurses should utilise evidence-based approaches such as increasing activity levels, dietary counselling and behaviour change interventions to mitigate poor physical health in this client group. ABSTRACT: Introduction People diagnosed with schizophrenia have poor cardiometabolic health, with elevated 10-year cardiovascular disease risk (CVD-R) scores and poor quality of life (QOL). There is lack of understanding of these issues in early psychosis. Aims To quantify CVD-R in people diagnosed with early psychosis and profile their obesity prevalence, lifestyle behaviours and QOL. Secondary aim was to explore associations between lifestyle behaviours/treatment characteristics and CVD-R/QOL. Method Baseline data from 81 RCT participants were used to profile cardiometabolic health risks (QRISK® 3, BMI and waist circumference). Participants self-reported lifestyle behaviours and QOL. Relationships between modifiable treatment/lifestyle factors and QOL/CVD-R were explored. Results Participants' relative risk for CVD over 10years was 1.93 times higher than healthy counterparts; 39% also had an obese BMI and physical QOL was poor. No significant associations were observed between CVD-R or QOL with treatment characteristics and lifestyle factors. Discussion Despite positive lifestyle behaviours, participants had elevated CVD-R scores and poor physical health-related QOL. Quantifying CVD-R with QRISK® 3may highlight the need for health promotion interventions. Implications for practice Mental health professionals should be aware that elevated CVD-R exists in the context of relatively healthy lifestyle behaviours and utilise evidence-based interventions to address these issues.

Determining propensity for sub-optimal low-density lipoprotein cholesterol response to statins and future risk of cardiovascular disease.

Variability in low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) response to statins is underappreciated. We characterised patients by their statin response (SR), baseline risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and 10-year CVD outcomes. A multivariable model was developed using 183,213 United Kingdom (UK) patients without CVD to predict probability of sub-optimal SR, defined by guidelines as <40% reduction in LDL-C. We externally validated the model in a Hong Kong (HK) cohort (n = 170,904). Patients were stratified into four groups by predicted SR and 10-year CVD risk score: [SR1] optimal SR & low risk; [SR2] sub-optimal SR & low risk; [SR3] optimal SR & high risk; [SR4] sub-optimal SR & high risk; and 10-year hazard ratios (HR) determined for first major adverse cardiovascular event (MACE). Our SR model included 12 characteristics, with an area under the curve of 0.70 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.70-0.71; UK) and 0.68 (95% CI 0.67-0.68; HK). HRs for MACE in predicted sub-optimal SR with low CVD risk groups (SR2 to SR1) were 1.39 (95% CI 1.35-1.43, p<0.001; UK) and 1.14 (95% CI 1.11-1.17, p<0.001; HK). In both cohorts, patients with predicted sub-optimal SR with high CVD risk (SR4 to SR3) had elevated risk of MACE (UK HR 1.36, 95% CI 1.32-1.40, p<0.001: HK HR 1.25, 95% CI 1.21-1.28, p<0.001). Patients with sub-optimal response to statins experienced significantly more MACE, regardless of baseline CVD risk. To enhance cholesterol management for primary prevention, statin response should be considered alongside risk assessment.

Abstract 12484: Weekday 16:8 Time-Restricted Eating in Breast Cancer Survivors: Feasibility, Safety, and Effects on Cardiometabolic Health

Introduction: Time-restricted eating (TRE) is a form of intermittent fasting involving ad libitum energy intake within a set time window, commonly 8 hours, followed by a water-only fast for 16 hours (i.e., 16:8 TRE). TRE is a practical approach to improve cardiometabolic health but has not been tested in cancer populations. Hypothesis: TRE is feasible (&gt;85% adherence), safe (no major adverse events), and will improve cardiometabolic health in breast cancer survivors. Methods: Women who completed chemotherapy for early-stage breast cancer 1-6 years earlier, are ≥60 years, have a BMI &gt;25 kg/m 2 , and not taking lipid or glucose-lowering medications were enrolled in a single-arm study of 16:8 TRE on weekdays for 8 weeks. Participants could eat ad libitum between 12-8 pm on weekdays and all weekend. No other dietary or physical activity instructions were given. Adherence was collected by twice daily text messages that asked participants to respond with the times that they started/stopped eating. The Framingham 10-year cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk score and heart age, and ectopic adipose tissue (3T magnetic resonance imaging) were assessed before and after 8 weeks of TRE. Results: Fifteen participants (66±4 years, 31±4 kg/m 2 ) have completed the study. Participants responded to 99% of text messages and adhered to the 16-hour fast a median of 98% of days (range 93-100%). Reported symptoms were minor and transient. At baseline, 73% of participants were at ‘intermediate’ (10-19%) CVD risk, and pharmacological treatment was indicated. Among those at intermediate risk, 8 weeks of TRE decreased the absolute CVD risk by a median of 2% and heart age by 6 years, and reversed the need for pharmacological treatment (i.e., reclassification to ‘low’ risk) or metabolic syndrome in 45%. In all participants, visceral adipose tissue decreased by a median of 6% (p=0.018) and triglycerides by 17% (p=0.008). There were no significant changes in hemoglobin A1c, or ectopic adipose tissue in the liver or thigh. Conclusions: Eight weeks of weekday 16:8 TRE is highly feasible, safe, and reduces CVD risk among older breast cancer survivors with overweight/obesity at moderate CVD risk. Improvements in glucose control and liver/thigh ectopic adipose tissue may require a longer intervention.

Effect of Individualized Preventive Care Recommendations vs Usual Care on Patient Interest and Use of Recommendations

This randomized clinical trial examines the feasibility and acceptability of a decision-making tool for increasing patient interest in individualized recommendations for preventive care services. To pilot a tool to help patients compare life expectancy gains from evidence-based preventive services. This randomized clinical trial examined patient and physician responses to a pilot decision tool incorporating personalized risk factors at 3 US primary care clinics between 2017 and 2020. Eligible patients were between ages 45 to 70 years with 2 or more high-risk factors. Patients were followed-up after 1 year. The gain in life expectancy associated with guideline adherence to each recommended preventive service was estimated. Personalized estimates incorporating risk factors in electronic health records were displayed in a physician-distributed visual aid. During development, physicians discussed individualized results with patients using shared decision-making (SDM). During the trial, patients were randomized to receive individualized recommendations or usual care (nonmasked, parallel, 1:1 ratio). Primary outcome was patient interest in individualized recommendations, assessed by survey. Secondary outcomes were use of SDM, decisional comfort, readiness to change, and preventive services received within 1 year. The study enrolled 104 patients (31 development, 39 intervention, 34 control), of whom 101 were included in analysis (mean [SD] age, 56.5 [5.3] years; 73 [72.3%] women; 80 [79.2%] Black patients) and 20 physicians. Intervention patients found the tool helpful and wanted to use it again, rating it a median 9 of 10 (IQR, 8-10) and 10 of 10 (8-10), respectively. Compared with the control group, intervention patients more often correctly identified the service least likely (18 [46%] vs 0; P = .03) to improve their life expectancy. A greater number of patients also identified the service most likely to improve their life expectancy (26 [69%] vs 10 [30%]; P = .07), although this result was not statistically significant. Intervention patients reported greater mean [SD] improvement in SDM (4.7 [6.9] points) and near-term readiness to change (13.8 points for top-3-ranked recommendations). Point estimates indicated that patients in the intervention group experienced greater, although non-statistically significant, reductions in percentage of body weight (-2.96%; 95% CI, -8.18% to 2.28%), systolic blood pressure (-6.42 mm Hg; 95% CI, -16.12 to 3.27 mm Hg), hemoglobin A1c (-0.68%; 95% CI, -1.82% to 0.45%), 10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk score (-1.20%; 95% CI, -3.65% to 1.26%), and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (-8.46 mg/dL; 95% CI, -26.63 to 9.70 mg/dL) than the control group. Nineteen of 20 physicians wanted to continue using the decision tool in the future. In this clinical trial, an individualized preventive care decision support tool improved patient understanding of primary prevention and demonstrated promise for improved shared decision-making and preventive care utilization. ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT03023813.

A newly developed and externally validated non-clinical score accurately predicts 10-year cardiovascular disease risk in the general adult population

Inclusion of clinical parameters limits the application of most cardiovascular disease (CVD) prediction models to clinical settings. We developed and externally validated a non-clinical CVD risk score with a clinical extension and compared the performance to established CVD risk scores. We derived the scores predicting CVD (non-fatal and fatal myocardial infarction and stroke) in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-Potsdam cohort (n = 25,992, cases = 683) using competing risk models and externally validated in EPIC-Heidelberg (n = 23,529, cases = 692). Performance was assessed by C-indices, calibration plots, and expected-to-observed ratios and compared to a non-clinical model, the Pooled Cohort Equation, Framingham CVD Risk Scores (FRS), PROCAM scores, and the Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE). Our non-clinical score included age, gender, waist circumference, smoking, hypertension, type 2 diabetes, CVD family history, and dietary parameters. C-indices consistently indicated good discrimination (EPIC-Potsdam 0.786, EPIC-Heidelberg 0.762) comparable to established clinical scores (thereof highest, FRS: EPIC-Potsdam 0.781, EPIC-Heidelberg 0.764). Additional clinical parameters slightly improved discrimination (EPIC-Potsdam 0.796, EPIC-Heidelberg 0.769). Calibration plots indicated very good calibration with minor overestimation in the highest decile of predicted risk. The developed non-clinical 10-year CVD risk score shows comparable discrimination to established clinical scores, allowing assessment of individual CVD risk in physician-independent settings.

Prevalence and Risk Factors of Cardiovascular Disease in Patients with Chronic Hepatitis B

The association between chronic hepatitis B (CHB) and cardiovascular disease (CVD) remains unclear. We investigated the prevalence and risk factors of CVD in patients with CHB. Data from the Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys 2008-2011 were analyzed. Significant liver fibrosis was defined as the highest nonalcoholic fatty liver disease fibrosis score quartile, highest Forns index quintile, or fibrosis-4 ≥ 2.67. The CVD risk was calculated using the 10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk score from the 2013 ACC/AHA Guidelines. Among the 506 subjects with CHB, 15 (3.0%) and 150 (29.6%) patients had a CVD history and significant liver fibrosis, respectively. Patients with CVD history were significantly older; showed a significantly higher prevalence of hypertension, metabolic syndrome, and significant liver fibrosis; and had a significantly higher platelet count, lower aspartate and alanine aminotransferase levels, higher triglyceride level, lower high-density lipoprotein level, and higher ASCVD risk than those without (all p < 0.05). In multivariate analysis, higher ASCVD risk (odds ratio [OR] = 1.090) and significant liver fibrosis (OR = 4.341) independently predicted the risk of CVD history (p < 0.05). The prevalence of CVD risk (6.7% vs. 1.4%; OR = 5.014) and high ASCVD risk (> 15%) (34.0% vs. 7.3%; OR = 6.538) was significantly higher in patients with significant liver fibrosis than in those without (all p < 0.05). Significant liver fibrosis was independently associated with the risk of CVD history in patients with CHB. Prospective studies are needed to validate the longitudinal association between fibrotic burden and CVD development in patients with CHB.

Central blood pressure lowering effect of telmisartan-rosuvastatin single-pill combination in hypertensive patients combined with dyslipidemia: A pilot study.

This multicenter, phase 4, Prospective Randomized Open, Blinded End‐point (PROBE) study aimed to evaluate safety and efficacy of telmisartan/rosuvastatin single‐pill combination (SPC) therapy on lowering central blood pressure (BP) compared with telmisartan monotherapy in hypertensive patients with dyslipidemia in Korea. Study was terminated earlier than planned due to COVID‐19 pandemic, thus should be considered as a pilot study. Among 125 patients who met the inclusion criteria of hypertension and dyslipidemia (defined as 10‐year Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease risk score over 5%), 80 patients went through 4‐week single‐group run‐in period with telmisartan 40–80 mg, then randomized to telmisartan 80 mg + rosuvastatin (10 or 20 mg) SPC group or telmisartan 80 mg monotherapy group. The central/brachial BP, brachial‐ankle pulse wave velocity (baPWV), and augmentation index (AIx) were assessed at baseline and 16 weeks later. Mean brachial SBP changed from 135.80 ± 14.22 mmHg to 130.69 ± 13.23 mmHg in telmisartan/rosuvastatin group and from 134.37 ± 12.50 mmHg to 133.75 ± 12.30 mmHg in telmisartan monotherapy group without significant difference (between‐group difference p = .149). Mean central SBP were reduced significantly in the telmisartan/rosuvastatin group with change from 126.72 ± 14.44 mmHg to 121.56 ± 14.56 mmHg while telmisartan monotherapy group showed no significant change (between‐group difference p = .028). BaPWV changed from 1672.57 ± 371.72 m/s to 1591.75 ± 272.16 m/s in telmisartan/rosuvastatin group and from 1542.85 ± 263.70 m/s to 1586.12 ± 297.45 m/s in telmisartan group with no significance (between‐group difference p = .078). Change of AIx had no significant difference (between‐group difference p = .314). Both groups showed excellent compliance rate of 96.9 ± 4.5% with no significant difference in adverse rate. Telmisartan/rosuvastatin SPC therapy was more effective in lowering central BP compared with the telmisartan monotherapy. The results of this study showed benefit of additive statin therapy in hypertensive patients combined with dyslipidemia.

Associations of Serum Uric Acid with Clustering of Cardiovascular Risk Factors and a 10-Year Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Risk Score in Jiangsu Adults, China.

PurposeThe relationship between serum uric acid (SUA) and Chinese characteristic 10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk score has not been well evaluated in Chinese populations. Aims of this cross-sectional study were to describe the correlation between SUA level and clustering of prevalent cardiovascular risk factors (CRFs) including overweight, central obesity, hypertension, diabetes and dyslipidemia, as well as the Chinese 10-year ASCVD risk score in adults from Jiangsu Province located in Eastern China.Patients and MethodsA total of 7700 adults from 12 cities in Jiangsu Province were selected through multi-stage stratified cluster random sampling method in 2015. Face-to-face interviews, physical examinations and laboratory examinations were carried out to collect the information of the participants. Multivariate logistic analysis was used to analyze the relationship between SUA quartiles and various CVD risk factors. The nonlinear analysis was conducted to evaluate the relationship between SUA levels and the China-PAR 10-year ASCVD risk scores.ResultsThe prevalence of hyperuricemia was 13.3% in all of the participants. By adjusting potential confounders, significant correlations were found between the SUA level and the overweight, central obesity, hypertension and dyslipidemia in both males and females. The clustering of CRFs was different across SUA quantiles (χ2=607.685, P<0.001). After Gamma trend test (P < 0.001) and ordered logistic regression analysis, it was found out that with the increase of SUA quantiles, prevalent CRFs gradually gathered in both males and females. Furthermore, sex-specific difference was identified between SUA and 10-year ASCVD risk scores.ConclusionThe accumulation of CRFs increased with elevated SUA levels, whereas it was different between genders in the relationship between SUA and 10-year ASCVD risk scores. Tailored strategies should be taken when it came to males and females in managing SUA.

Mediation and Moderation of Adiposity Indicators for the Association Between Grip Strength and Cardiovascular Disease Risk Scores.

Background: This cross-sectional study evaluated mediation or moderation of adiposity indicators on the association between handgrip strength (HGS) and the 10-year cardiovascular disease risk scores (CVDR). Methods: In data of 15,206 Korean adults (6961 men and 8245 women) aged ≥30 years using the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, HGS, body mass index (BMI), height, waist circumference, the components of Framingham CVDR, and covariates (sociodemographic factors, health behaviors, perceived stress, health, functional status, and nutritional status) were used. BMI, waist circumference, and waist-to-height ratio were used as adiposity indicators. Gender-specific general linear model and PROCESS Macro were applied. Results: HGS had an inverse association with the CVDR after adjusting for the covariates and BMI (or waist circumference), while adiposity indicators had positive associations with the CVDR after adjusting for the covariates and HGS. Mediation analysis shows indirect effects of adiposity indicators (0.010-0.019, P < 0.05) and direct effect of HGS on the CVDR (-0.08 to -0.09, P < 0.05) after adjusting for the covariates. Moderation analysis reveals positive interactions between HGS and adiposity indicators in the relationship with the CVDR after adjusting for the covariates (P < 0.05). The inverse association between the HGS and the CVDR tended to be stronger with decrease in adiposity levels. Conclusions: Adiposity indicators mediated and moderated the association between HGS and the CVDR in Koreans. The moderating effects indicate that the lower the levels of the adiposity indicators, the stronger the CVDR improvement effect of HGS.

Cardiovascular disease risk communication in NHS Health Checks: a qualitative video-stimulated recall interview study with practitioners.

BackgroundNHS Health Check (NHSHC) is a national programme to identify and manage cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. Practitioners delivering the programme should be competent in discussing CVD risk, but there is evidence of limited understanding of the recommended 10-year percentage CVD risk scores. Lifetime CVD risk calculators might improve understanding and communication of risk.AimTo explore practitioner understanding, perceptions, and experiences of CVD risk communication in NHSHCs when using two different CVD risk calculators.Design & settingQualitative video-stimulated recall (VSR) study with NHSHC practitioners in the West Midlands.MethodVSR interviews were conducted with practitioners who delivered NHSHCs using either the QRISK2 10-year risk calculator (n = 7) or JBS3 lifetime CVD risk calculator (n = 8). Data were analysed using reflexive thematic analysis.ResultsIn total, nine healthcare assistants (HCAs) and six general practice nurses (GPNs) were interviewed. There was limited understanding and confidence of 10-year risk, which was used to guide clinical decisions through determining low-, medium-, or high-risk thresholds, rather than as a risk communication tool. Potential benefits of some JBS3 functions were evident, particularly heart age, risk manipulation, and visual presentation of risk.ConclusionThere is a gap between the expectation and reality of practitioners’ understanding, competencies, and training in CVD risk communication for NHSHCs. Practitioners would welcome heart age and risk manipulation functions of JBS3 to promote patient understanding of CVD risk, but there is a more fundamental need for practitioner training in CVD risk communication.

Prediction of Coronary Artery Calcium and Cardiovascular Risk on Chest Radiographs Using Deep Learning.

To assess the ability of deep convolutional neural networks (DCNNs) to predict coronary artery calcium (CAC) and cardiovascular risk on chest radiographs. In this retrospective study, 1689 radiographs in patients who underwent cardiac CT and chest radiography within the same year, between 2013 and 2018, were included (mean age, 56 years ± 11 [standard deviation]; 969 radiographs in women). Agatston scores were used as ground truth labels for DCNN training on radiographs. DCNNs were trained for binary classification of (a) nonzero or zero total calcium scores, (b) presence or absence of calcium in each coronary artery, and (c) total calcium scores above or below varying thresholds. Results from classification of test images were compared with established 10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk scores in each cohort. Classifier performance was measured using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) with attention maps to highlight areas of decision-making. Binary classification between zero and nonzero total calcium scores reached an AUC of 0.73 on frontal radiographs, with similar performance on laterals (AUC, 0.70; P = .56). Performance was similar for binary classification of absolute total calcium score above or below 100 (AUC, 0.74). Frontal radiographs that tested positive for a predicted nonzero CAC score correlated with a higher 10-year ASCVD risk of 17.2% ± 10.9 compared with 11.9% ± 10.2 for a negative test, indicating predicted CAC score of zero (P < .001). Multivariate logistic regression demonstrated the algorithm could predict a nonzero calcium score independent of traditional cardiovascular risk factors. Performance was reduced for individual coronary arteries. Heat maps primarily localized to the cardiac silhouette and occasionally other cardiovascular findings. DCNNs trained on chest radiographs had modest accuracy for predicting the presence of CAC correlating with cardiovascular risk.Keywords: Coronary Arteries, Cardiac, Calcifications/Calculi, Neural NetworksSee also the commentary by Gupta and Blankstein in this issue.©RSNA, 2021.

Compared to serum triglyceride alone, the association between serum triglyceride to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio and 10-year cardiovascular disease risk as determined by Framingham risk scores in a large Korean cohort

BackgroundThe incidence of cardiovascular disease (CVD) has gradually increased to the extent that it has become the most common cause of mortality worldwide, and triglyceride/high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (TG/HDL) ratio, a surrogate marker of insulin resistance, has emerged as an independent predictor of CVD. Additionally, several recent studies have reported an independent association between triglyceride-rich lipoproteins and CVD risk. The present study was conducted to investigate the association between the CVD risk determined by the Framingham risk score and the TG alone and TG/HDL ratio in a large Korean cohort. MethodsThis cross-sectional study included 6,995 participants aged 30 to 69 years that participated in a health examination program. TG/HDL ratio quartiles and TG quartiles were categorized as follows: Q1: ≤ 1.25, Q2: 1.26–2.07, Q3: 2.08–3.48, and Q4: ≥3.49; Q1: ≤ 71, Q2: 72–105, Q3: 106–159, and Q4: ≥160, respectively. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for high Framingham 10-year CVD risk (≥10%) were calculated across TG/HDL ratio quartiles and TG quartiles using multiple logistic regression analysis after adjusting for confounding variables. ResultsThe mean values of most cardiometabolic variables including body mass index, blood pressure, fasting plasma glucose levels, leukocyte count, median CRP levels, and Framingham 10-year CVD risk scores increased gradually with TG/HDL ratio quartiles. The OR (95% CI) of the highest TG/HDL ratio quartile and TG quartile as compared with the lowest TG/HDL ratio quartile and TG quartile for high Framingham 10-year CVD risk was 9.27 (6.68–12.86) and 0.97 (0.69–1.36) after adjusting for confounding variables, respectively. ConclusionCompared to TG, the TG/HDL ratio was found to be positively and independently associated with Framingham 10-year CVD risk in a large Korean cohort.

Bone Mediated and Moderated the Associations Between Sarcopenic Obesity Indices and Cardiovascular Disease Risk Scores.

To evaluate mediation and moderation of bone on the association of sarcopenic obesity (SO) indices using the metabolic load-capacity model with the 10-year cardiovascular disease risk scores (CVDR). In 2905 men and 3622 women (age ≥ 30years), dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry was used to measure bone indicators [total bone mineral content percentage(TBM%), bone mineral density of femur neck (BMD_FN) and lumbar spines(BMD_LS)], total muscle (TMM) and fat mass (TFM), appendicular skeletal muscle mass (ASM), and truncal fat mass (TrFM). Two SO indices were TMM/TFM and ASM/TrFM. The Framingham model was used to calculate CVDR. Sex-specific mediation and moderation effects of bone indicators in the associations between the SO indices and the CVDR were analyzed. After adjusting for age, education, income, alcohol use, and physical activity, the SO indices inversely associated with the CVDR and TBM% inversely mediated those associations in both sexes. BMD inversely mediated those associations in men, while the mediation effects of BMD in women were non-significant or positive. In those aged ≥ 60, the mediation effects were found in TBM% and BMD_LS , but not in BMD_FN. The moderation analysis shows stronger inverse associations between the SO indices and the CVDR in those with low bone indicators in women and in men (for the relationship between ASM/TrFM and TBM%), while bone indicators did not moderate these associations in those aged ≥ 60. Bone mass mediated the associations between the SO indices and the CVDR in Korean men and women and moderated these associations in women.

Relative Predictive Value of Circulating Immune Markers in US Adults Without Cardiovascular Disease: Implications for Risk Reclassification

ObjectiveTo investigate the relative predictive value of circulating immune cell markers for cardiovascular mortality in ambulatory adults without cardiovascular disease. MethodsWe analyzed data of participants enrolled in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey from January 1, 1999, to December 31, 2010, with the total leukocyte count within a normal range (4000-11,000 cells/μL [to convert to cells ×109/L, multiply by 0.001]) and without cardiovascular disease. The relative predictive value of circulating immune cell markers measured at enrollment—including total leukocyte count, absolute neutrophil count, absolute lymphocyte count, absolute monocyte count, monocyte-lymphocyte ratio (MLR), neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio, and C-reactive protein—for cardiovascular mortality was evaluated. The marker with the best predictive value was added to the 10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk score to estimate net risk reclassification indices for 10-year cardiovascular mortality. ResultsAmong 21,599 participants eligible for this analysis, the median age was 47 years (interquartile range, 34-63 years); 10,651 (49.2%) participants were women, and 10,713 (49.5%) were self-reported non-Hispanic white. During a median follow-up of 9.6 years (interquartile range, 6.8-13.1 years), there were 627 cardiovascular deaths. MLR had the best predictive value for cardiovascular mortality. The addition of elevated MLR (≥0.3) to the 10-year ASCVD risk score improved the classification by 2.7%±1.4% (P=.04). Elevated MLR had better predictive value than C-reactive protein and several components of the 10-year ASCVD risk score. ConclusionAmong ambulatory US adults without preexisting cardiovascular disease, we found that MLR had the best predictive value for cardiovascular mortality among circulating immune markers. The addition of MLR to the 10-year risk score significantly improved the risk classification of participants.

Comparison between clinic and home measurements of blood pressure, total cholesterol, blood sugar to identify 10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk score

The clinical guideline recommends home monitoring for hypertension, diabetes, and hyperlipidemia maintenance therapy. The study aimed to compare the 10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk calculated using systolic blood pressure, fasting total-cholesterol, and fasting blood sugar measured at the clinic and home. This analytical cross-sectional study was done in population from villages in Sleman District, Yogyakarta. The subjects were selected purposively with the criteria of 40-79 years old and signing the informed consent. The home-measured systolic blood pressure was monitored with a digital sphygmomanometer and peripheral finger-stick methods for cholesterol and blood sugar. On the same occasion, the clinic measurements were monitored with a mercury sphygmomanometer for systolic blood pressure, and with venous plasma analyzed in the laboratory for cholesterol and blood glucose. Measurements between methods were compared with paired T-tests. The subjects (n=171) had a mean age of 52.6 (8.1) years; 21.6% were male. The systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, and blood glucose from clinic and home measurement were 130.0 (21.1) mmHg and 137.6 (22.4) mmHg (p&lt;0.001); 202.8 (32.8) mg/dl and 205.2 (44.8) mg/dl (p= 0.44); and 98.5 (42.9) mg/dl and 91.9 (34.6) mg/dl (p&lt;0.001) respectively. The average ASCVD risks of the clinic and home measurements were 6.4 (6.2)% and 7.1 (6.9)% (p&lt;0.001); however, both methods had the same ASCVD risk category at borderline risk (5-&lt;7.5%). Conclusion: The ASCVD risk scores calculated using clinic and home measurements were statistically different.

Abstract 17065: Performance of Cardiovascular Disease Risk Scores to Identify Coronary Artery Calcium Burden in Retired National Football League Players

Introduction: Coronary artery calcium (CAC) is a robust predictor of coronary events in asymptomatic individuals with latent atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD). While evidence suggests CAC scoring may augment traditional CVD risk scores in clinical decision making, evidence is limited on the compared ability of CVD risk scores to identify the degree of coronary atherosclerosis as quantified by absolute CAC, particularly in former elite athlete populations. We investigated this in a cohort of retired National Football League (NFL) players. Methods: We analyzed data on 752 retired NFL players (aged 55.2 ± 9.0 years, 53.7% African-American] that underwent health screening and CAC scoring with the NFL Player Care Foundation. Three 10-year CVD risk scores were compared: Framingham Coronary Heart Disease (FCHD), Framingham CVD (FCVD), and Atherosclerotic CVD Risk Pooled Cohort Equations (PCE). Receiver operating characteristic curves were fitted in 3 models: FCHD (Model 1), FCVD (Model 2), and PCE (Model 3, used as reference based on 2013 AHA guidelines). Contrast analyses identified the model with highest discriminative ability (c statistic) versus CAC = 0 for each CAC score category: &gt;0 and &lt;100, 100-400, and &gt;400. Results: Compared to PCE , FCVD exhibited the highest discriminative ability for CAC &gt; 0 and &lt; 100 ( c statistic 0.7071 vs 0.6706, p&lt;0.0001), while FCHD had the lowest for both CAC 100-400 ( c statistic 0.7198 vs 0.7664, p=0.0165) and CAC &gt;400 ( c statistic 0.7728 vs 0.8460, p&lt;0.0001). No additional differences were identified (Figure 1). Conclusion: Traditional CVD risk scores differ in performance to predict absolute CAC among retired NFL players, underscoring a need for refinement of coronary event risk prediction models to enhance the ability of such models to identify, specifically, low CAC, as even low CAC burden confers increased risk compared to CAC absence. This may include accounting for elite athlete-specific characteristics.