Average Annual Rate Research Articles

RATE OF ASCENDING AORTIC ENLARGEMENT IN A LARGE ECHOCARDIOGRAPHIC COHORT: ASSOCIATED RISK FACTORS AND ADVERSE AORTIC EVENTS

BackgroundUnderstanding ascending aortic aneurysm growth and associated risk factors is critical to advising appropriate echocardiographic follow-up intervals for patients. This study aimed to identify aortic aneurysm growth rate on serial echocardiograms as well as the clinical and demographic variables that contribute to baseline aortic size and subsequent aortic growth. MethodsPatients identified with ascending aortic aneurysm and undergoing serial echocardiograms within five years were evaluated. Ascending aortic size was measured as part of routine echocardiogram exams. Clinical and demographic variables including aortic valve type (trileaflet, bicuspid or prosthetic) were evaluated for association with baseline aortic size as well as with aortic progression rate. Clinical events including aortic dissection, elective or emergent surgical repair were recorded. Results3639 patients were identified, (78% males, median age of 69 years, 175 (4.8%) with bicuspid valve, and 206 (5.6%) with prior aortic valve replacement (AVR). Patients with larger aorta at baseline were older with higher tobacco use and prior prosthetic valves. Over a mean of 2.4 years, aortic growth was observed and differed by valve type (trileaflet valve: 0.08 mm/year , bicuspid valve: 0.4 mm/year , p<0.001). In six patients who developed aortic dissection the estimated average annual growth rate was 0.98 mm/year. ConclusionsIn a large echo cohort, aortic aneurysm growth rate was 0.08 mm/year though higher in those with bicuspid valves ( 0.4 mm/ year), but initial aortic size did not correlate with change in the aortic progression rate. This data may help inform recommended echocardiographic surveillance intervals.

Evaluating water balance components in a tropical ecological zone under land use changes

Water availability for domestic, institutional, and agricultural production is threatened by the continuous change in land use land cover (LULC). These changes in LULC features affect the dynamics of the hydrological processes such as surface runoff, infiltration, and evapotranspiration, resulting in variations in water availability especially, for human consumption and crop yield. Therefore, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model was deployed to simulate the Pra River Basin (PRB)’s water balance response to changing LULC from 1986 to 2020. Open and closed forests reduced from an area of 11,071 km2 to 5902 km2 and 5125 km2 to 4990 km2 while settlement and cropland increased from 1100 km2 to 2392 km2 and 5303 km2 to 9320 km2 representing an average annual expansion rate of +24.7 km2/yr and +118 km2/yr respectively over the three decades. The growth in settlement and cropland resulted in an upsurge of more than 33 % and 20 % in surface runoff and water yield respectively, but decreases of over 4 % and 17 % in evapotranspiration and baseflow respectively. These changes have resulted in a seasonal increase in surface runoff, baseflow, and evapotranspiration (ET) during the wet season but a decrease during the dry season. The PRB has experienced a dramatic decline in forest areas, chiefly in areas where settlement and farmlands have been expanded. The areas where surface runoff and water yield showed significant upsurge and reduction in ET are the northwestern and southern enclaves of the basin. These findings can aid in effectively planning and managing land use to control the gradually depleting water resources in the basin.

Spatio-temporal variability of precipitation from 1980 to 2021 within the Oum Er Rbia hydraulic basin (Morocco)

Abstract The aim of this work is to assess the spatio-temporal variability of the mean annual rainfall during the last four decades within the Oum Er Rbia hydraulic basin. The used database in this study consists with a series of rainfall data at different time scale. These data were subjected to statistical and cartographic analysis. The obtained results show that, during the period of 1980-2021, interannual variability marked the evolution of annual rainfall averages. Furthermore, this variability is characterized by alternating sequences of dry and wet seasons. From the hydrological year of 2015, a general decreasing trend of rainfall has clearly marked and observed. Rainfall patterns in the Oum Er Rbia basin are also characterized by spatial variability. Interannual averages vary considerably from one catchment to another. The upstream part of the basin receives the most amount of rainfall. By contrast, the middle of the basin is the driest. The recent drop in precipitation has had a negative impact on the basin’s territory, most notably on water resources and agriculture.

Molecular Pathology of Myotonic Dystrophy Type 1 in Iceland.

Myotonic Dystrophy type 1 (DM1) is an autosomal dominant disease with anticipation due to increased number of CTG repeats in the DMPK gene. This retrospective, cohort study in Iceland assessed prevalence of DM1, molecular pathology, and patient ascertainment. Data was collected from all major hospitals in Iceland, Medical Director of Health, and independent clinics. Cohort criteria were diagnosis of DM1 on January 1, 2021, or time of death. Population-based Icelandic Genealogy Database of the Genetical Committee at the University of Iceland was used for genealogy. In Iceland, 221 individuals, including 19 obligate carriers, had been diagnosed with DM1 of which 144 were alive giving a point prevalence of 39 per 100,000 (four times the world average of 9.3). Genealogy analysis identified 45 first-degree families. Age-adjusted prevalence ranged between 11 and 66 per 100,000. Average potential years of life lost were 20.5 per person. Where information was available, 63% of ascertainment was based on family history in cascade testing. The differences in age-adjusted prevalence suggest that the overall point prevalence is an underestimation due to underdiagnosis in younger age groups and lethality in oldest age group. Our data supports use of cascade testing to improve DM1 ascertainment.

Medicare Reimbursement and Utilization Trends Within Skull Base Surgery

Medicare reimbursements for otolaryngology and neurosurgery procedures have generally declined since 2000. We explore Medicare reimbursement trends for anterior cranial fossa, middle cranial fossa, posterior cranial fossa, pituitary surgery, and skull base reconstruction surgery from 2000-2022. Cross-sectional analysis of the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services Physician Fee Schedule was performed from 2000-2022 on approach, resection, and repair of the skull base (Current Procedural Terminology codes 31290-31291, 61546, 61548, 61575-61619, and 62165). Reimbursement data were adjusted for inflation to 2022 U.S. dollars, and annual and total changes calculated. The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services Part B National Summary Data File was analyzed for trends in Medicare procedure volume and total payment. Adjusted for inflation since 2000, reimbursements for anterior cranial fossa, middle cranial fossa, posterior cranial fossa, pituitary surgery, and skull base reconstruction codes had an overall decrease of 22.85%, 32.43%, 28.09%, 44.22%, and 38.65%, respectively. Simultaneously, procedure volume increased at an average annual rate of 63.99%, 128.57%, 19.75%, 36.11%, and 12.79%, respectively. While nominal per-service Medicare reimbursement has increased for skull base surgery codes, there has been a downward trend in inflation-adjusted procedural reimbursement. This parallels findings in other otolaryngology and neurosurgery procedures. Despite this, surgical volume in all skull base surgery subfields has increased, indicating increased utility and adoption of these techniques.

Trends in admission to the Wildlife Screening Center in Espírito Santo State, Brazil, from 2011 to 2021

Background and Aim: The Wild Animal Screening Center in Espírito Santo State (CETAS-ES), Brazil, treats wildlife from trafficking and illegal trade, accidents, captivity, and rescue from out of their habitat. The present study described the trends in wildlife admission to the CETAS-ES over the past 10 years and discussed the impact of animal exploitation. Materials and Methods: This descriptive study used a database provided by the CETAS-ES with data on animals admitted between 2011 and 2021, including admission year, origin, place of captivity, taxonomic category, sex, life stage, and health status. Results: Over 10 years, 23,176 animals were admitted, with an annual average of 2,106 admissions. Seizing was the most common origin (60.39%), followed by rescues/collections (22.60%) and voluntary delivery (11.7%), whereas 5.3% had unidentified origins. Birds were the most frequently admitted animals (80.6%) and were predominant among those seized (97.5%), rescued/collected (46.7%), and voluntarily delivered (73.2%). Mammals represented 45.0% of rescues/collections and reptiles represented 19.0% of voluntary deliveries. Conclusion: The admissions reveal a vulnerable scenario for wildlife in the Brazilian Atlantic Rainforest of Espírito Santo State, mainly affecting birds. Seizing was a common occurrence over the decade, reinforcing the necessity of actions to prevent wildlife trafficking and illegal trade. Keywords: Atlantic Rainforest, biodiversity, fauna, wildlife trade.

ENTROPY BASED EVALUATION OF THE IMPACT OF EDUCATION ON ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

In contemporary economic landscapes, effective managerial decision-making requires serious justifications often facilitated by information technologies. The article proposes the application of the foundational principles from information theory and entropy to determine the correlation between education and economic development. This research employs entropy methodology to explore the correlations and implications of these multifaceted domains, drawing insights from a range of global indices. By analyzing data from indices such as the Human Development Index, we investigate the relationship between average years of education and entropy values, shedding light on the diversity and standardization of human capital systems across nations. Moreover, economic indexes, encapsulating factors such as economic freedom and innovation, provide critical insights into the vibrancy and resilience of national economies. Through the lens of the Global Innovation Index, we explore how countries with higher levels of economic freedom and innovation efficiency exhibit less diversity in economic approaches and innovation strategies, leading to a reduction in entropy values. By examining entropy values in conjunction with innovation indicators, such as research and development expenditure and patent applications, we uncover patterns and trends indicative of the diversity or standardization of innovation strategies across countries. Additionally, cybersecurity emerges as a critical dimension of national security and resilience, with implications for economic well-being and societal trust. Through the National Cybersecurity Index, we assess the level of diversity and uncertainty in cybersecurity landscapes, highlighting the importance of robust cybersecurity measures in safeguarding against emerging threats and reducing entropy values. Ultimately, this research contributes to the discourse on sustainable development and resilience in an interconnected world. By identifying specific challenges and opportunities within education, economy, innovation, and cybersecurity domains, it facilitates informed decision-making and strategic interventions to promote inclusive growth and societal well-being on a global scale.

Fishery and stock dynamics of ribbonfish Trichiurus lepturus (Linnaeus, 1758) in the Indian Exclusive Economic Zone

The fishery and stock dynamics of Trichiurus lepturus (Linnaeus, 1758) were studied in the Indian Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) for the period 2014-2019. The average annual landing was 2,09,285 t and varied from 1,77,259 to 2,39,355 t. Trawl nets were the majorgear, contributing more than 85% with an average annual catch rate of 4.56 kg h-1. The annual catch rate decreased over the years from 5.40 to 3.85 kg h-1. Landings (23,155-40,354 t) and catch rates (4.24-8.67 kg h-1) were highest during the post-monsoon months (September-December). Around 63% of the landings (1,32,072 t) were from the north-west coast, with Gujarat alone contributing three-fourth (98,296 t) of it, followed by the south-west coast (17%, 36,017 t), the south-east coast (12%, 25,322 t) and the north-east coast (8%, 15,875 t). The von Bertalanffy’s growth equation was Lt = 143.8 [1-e–0.48 (t + 0.03285)]. Natural mortality, Exploitation ratio and Maximum Sustainable Yield (MSY) were 0.76; 0.65 and 1,59,504 t respectively. Recruitment was substantial throughout the year with a single modal peak during June-October. With lower lengths at first capture and recruitment and with exploitation above the maximum permissible level and landings higher than MSY; the species appears to be overexploited along the Indian coasts. The present study is the first holistic report on the population parameters and stock status of T. lepturus from the Indian EEZ. Keywords: Cutlass fishes, Management, Recruitment, Stock dynamics

Влияние глубины и интенсивности сезонных колебаний на деятельность гостиниц

Currently, hospitality enterprises are faced with the problem of loading the number of rooms. At the same time, many hotels are faced with seasonal fluctuations in the volume of sales of hotel services. This situation leads to a lack of profit in certain periods, uneven workload on the enterprise and personnel, etc. Different types of hotel enterprises are affected by seasonality to varying degrees. Seasonality is relevant for various hotels, both resort and city. At the same time, each hotel may have its own seasonality: the factors that caused seasonal fluctuations differ. In some cases, these are climatic conditions, in others, event events in the region, focus on serving a certain segment, etc. Thus, the impact of seasonality on hotel operations should not be underestimated. The main problem here lies in the need to forecast the volume of sales of services, taking into account seasonal fluctuations. When assessing the impact of seasonality on sales volumes of hotel services, it is necessary to take into account such parameters as the depth, intensity, and duration of seasonal fluctuations. The object of research in this article is the GRINN hotel complex, located in the city of Orel. The study of seasonal fluctuations for this hotel enterprise is relevant. The work uses a method for determining seasonal fluctuations, which consists in calculating seasonality indices. They were calculated as a percentage of average monthly levels for a number of years to the total average monthly volume of services sold for the entire billing period. For the calculation, reporting data provided by the GRINN Group of Companies for six years (2017-2022) were used. First of all, the attendance of the GRINN Group of Companies was analyzed, as well as load factors. The data obtained made it possible to calculate seasonality indices. On their basis, “seasonal waves” were built. At the same time, a comparison was made between the pre-pandemic period and the pandemic period. Next, we compared the load factor and turnover in the GRINN Group of Companies. During the research, the following results were obtained. The maximum attendance of the hotel complex was noted in 2022 (38,832 people), the maximum average annual occupancy rate was in 2019 (50.3%). The year 2020 was the least successful year for the company, which was due to the coronavirus pandemic. In 2021-2022, a gradual recovery of indicators begins. In general, the following conclusions were drawn. The GRINN Group of Companies is characterized by minor seasonal fluctuations. They are determined by the specifics of this hospitality enterprise. Since the company is focused on serving organized groups and business tourists, attendance is influenced by the business activity of the region, as well as event events. In addition, it was established that there is no close connection between the occupancy level of a hotel and its profitability. It was proven that fewer customers can generate more revenue and vice versa. It was determined that the GRINN Group of Companies has the necessary potential to combat seasonal fluctuations.

Features of the Development of International Trade in Tourist Services

Introduction. The relevance of studying the peculiarities of the development of international trade in tourist services is determined by the significant role of world tourism in the structure of the global economy. In the conditions of a complex international political situation, which is dynamically changing, it is crucial to identify the vectors of the development of the tourism industry to determine the future structure of the macro-regional distribution of tourist flows. Aim and tasks. The purpose of this study is to identify the dominant factors and prospects for the development of international tourism business in the conditions of modern global economic and political instability to determine the most favourable marketing strategies for interaction in the international market of tourist services by extrapolating the results to the possibilities of post-war recovery of the tourism industry in Ukraine. Results. An analysis of international tourism arrivals showed that the average annual growth rate of the industry from 1995 to 2020 average annual growth of international tourist arrivals was more than 4 per cent. Over the estimated period from 1995 to 2023, the average arrival rate decreased to 2.46 per cent. Macro-regions are considered the most promising for the scaling of international tourism, as well as the factors that will contribute to this and can inhibit economic processes. Special attention is paid to the positioning of Ukraine during the post-war recovery of the tourism industry. Forecast indicators indicate that international tourist arrivals to Ukraine could reach 61 million people in the tenth year of the post-war period. An alternative strategy for promoting national tourist products and brands in the target markets of Central and Eastern Europe, Asia, and the Middle East was proposed, and the feasibility of continuing the promotion of Ukraine as a tourist brand was substantiated. Conclusions. This study confirms the vector of the shift in global tourist flows under the influence of a number of factors that deepen the contradictions between the Global South and the North, revealing key trends in the growth and displacement of international tourist flows among countries belonging to two opposite camps. The directions of institutional and structural changes required to restore international tourism in Ukraine in the post-war period to strengthen Ukraine's position in the global tourism market are proposed.

Trends and risk factors analysis of aortic aneurysm mortality in China over thirty years: based on the global burden of disease 2019 data.

This study aims to analyze the variation in mortality burden of aortic aneurysms (AA) and explore the associated risk factors based on Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 data, investigating the mortality burden of AA in China. Using GBD 2019 data, the mortality burden of AA in China from 1990 to 2019 was analyzed. The age-period-cohort model was utilized to analyze time trends, period, and cohort effects of 4 attributable risk factors of AA by age. In 2019, the total number of AA deaths in China increased by 136.1% compared to 1990, while the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) decreased by 6.8%. Male deaths and ASMR were higher than those of females, and ASMR increased with age. Whether viewed overall (Average Annual Percent Change (AAPC): -0.261, 95% Confidence Interval (CI): -0.383 to -0.138) or by sex (female AAPC: -0.812, 95% CI: -0.977 to -0.646; male AAPC: -0.011, 95% CI: -0.183 to 0.162), the ASMR for AA in China has shown a declining trend since 1990. Attributable risk factors such as high blood pressure, a diet high in sodium, smoking, and lead exposure increase AA mortality with age. Smoking mortality peaks between ages 80-85. The cyclical effect of high blood pressure on AA mortality significantly increases, while the cyclical effects of the other three risk factors decrease. For the population born after 1940, the cohort effect of high systolic blood pressure (SBP), a diet high in sodium, and smoking increased, while the cohort effect of lead exposure decreased. The local drift values of high SBP, a diet high in sodium, and smoking decreased, while the local drift value of lead exposure increased. High SBP was identified as the most significant attributable risk factor for AA mortality burden among both males and females, and smoking was another major attributable risk factor, particularly in males. From 1990 to 2019, fatality due to AA in China increased notably, but the ASMR showed a decreasing trend. The mortality rate of AA was influenced by age, sex, and attributable risk factors, with elderly male smokers carrying a heavy burden of death. Moreover, tobacco control and treatment of hypertension should be strengthened to reduce the burden and its impact on AA.

Problems of depression in neurological practice

Introduction. Depressive disorders have ceased to be only the task of psychiatrists. Depression is detected in patients with a somatic and neurological profile as a reaction to the disease, and may be the cause of the disease. The number of above-mentioned pathologies remains unknown to date. The main task for health care organizers is the need to build an algorithm for the identification, registration and treatment of depressive disorders in patients with combined pathologies. This article discusses depressive disorders in patients with multiple sclerosis. The purpose of the study: to study depressive disorders and factors influencing depression in patients with multiple sclerosis. Materials and methods. 203 patients with clinically confirmed diagnosis of MS participated. Taking into account the course of the disease, MS patients were distributed: with a remitting (RRS) type of MS course 88.2 % (179 people) and 11.8 % (24 people) with a secondary progressive course (RRS). The average age of the examined patients with remitting course (RRS) ranged from 15 to 63 years, on average 38 ± 10 years. The age of the examined patients with HPV is in the range from 29 to 65 years, on average (46 ± 9.00) years. The majority of patients had a disease duration of less than 20 years, on average 8.23±6.57 years. The average age of onset of the disease is 30.2±10.5 years. The duration of the disease is 9.84 ± 0.73 years, while the level of disability of patients (score in points on the Expanded Disability Status Scale/EDSS) at the time of examination was 2.89 ± 0.16 points. The disability index varied in patients with RRS2.89 ± 0.16 points, in patients with RRS (5.0 ± 0.24) points. Results and discussion. 55.7 % (113 people) of MS patients were diagnosed with depression, of which 80.5 % (91 people) and 19.5% (22 people) of patients with a remitting (RRS) course and a secondary progressive course of the disease (RRS). More than 54.8 % (62 people) had mild and moderate depressive manifestations, 39.8 % (45 people) most often had mixed anxiety-depressive disorder, recurrent depressive disorder, then depressive episodes. It was revealed that the development of depression in patients with a remitting course is influenced by: «disease duration» PC p = 0.00333**, «disability level» p = 0.0457* and «personal anxiety» p = 0.0194. In patients with a secondary progressive course, depression is influenced by the following factors: «situational» p = 0.0398* and «personal anxiety» p = 1.740. The social status determined that patients with «MS without depression» who were married were statistically less likely to suffer from depression and maintained their working capacity longer (p &lt; 0.001). Conclusion. Depressive disorders are the leading disorders in neurological patients, but their number and severity of symptoms are often ignored by specialists. Therefore, the health authorities are faced with the task of building a clinical and organizational algorithm for the identification of depressive disorders, as well as their timely medical correction.

Airborne Alternaria Spores: 70 Annual Records in Northwestern Spain.

This study presents data on the concentration of Alternaria spores in the atmosphere of the northwestern Iberian Peninsula. A non-viable volumetric method was used to collect the samples, resulting in a database of 70 annual. When the annual averages for each locality are calculated, Ourense stands out with 2152 spores/m3, followed by Vigo and Lugo, while Santiago de Compostela recorded the lowest concentrations. Focusing on the total data for each locality, the main sporulation period started in May and ended in October in all localities, centered on a single phase, with an earlier onset and longer duration in Ourense and Vigo. The number of days with concentrations in excess of 100 spores/m3 was very low in Santiago de Compostela, Ourense, and Vigo and null in Lugo. Temperature was the meteorological parameter for which the highest statistical correlation was obtained in all locations, being favorable to the concentration of spores in the air. Temperature ranges favorable to the presence of airborne spores in the study area ranged from 25.5 to 31.2 °C. Based on the analysis of the data collected, it is concluded that Alternaria spore concentrations are low throughout most of the year.

Characterizing post-traumatic growth in individuals with traumatic brain injury according to social participation, self-awareness, and self-identity.

After traumatic brain injury (TBI), individuals may face challenges in their social participation, self-awareness, and self-identity. However, positive life changes can also be experienced (i.e., post-traumatic growth). This study aimed to characterize the social participation, self-awareness, and self-identity of individuals with TBI displaying post-traumatic growth. Fifteen participants (male = 10, mean age = 49.7 years) with moderate to severe TBI (average years post-injury = 15.2) were included in this mixed-methods study. Self-report questionnaires were used to assess social participation, self-awareness, and self-identity. Qualitative data, collected using semi-structured interviews, were used to categorize participants into two groups: higher (n = 8) and lower (n = 7) post-traumatic growth. Descriptive statistics were used to characterize participants in each group in terms of their social participation, self-awareness, and self-identity. Participants with higher post-traumatic growth had increased social participation, higher self-awareness, and fewer negative discrepancies between their pre- and post-injury self-identities, compared to participants with lower post-traumatic growth. This study contributes to a more comprehensive understanding of post-traumatic growth through the use of both qualitative and quantitative data. These findings can inform future research and development of programs to promote post-traumatic growth post-TBI.

Community gross primary production and respiration in epilithic macroalgae and Posidonia oceanica macrophytodetritus accumulation in the Bay of Revellata (Corsica)

We report estimates of community gross primary production (GPP), community respiration (CR), and net community production (NCP) based on the change of dissolved O2 during incubations over epilithic turf-forming macroalgae (Halopteris scoparia, Padina pavonica, and Dictyota dichotoma) on 7 occasions and in accumulations of Posidonia oceanica macrophytodetritus (i.e. litter) on 8 occasions in the Bay of Revellata (Corsica) from March 2009 to May 2011. In the epilithic macroalgae community, GPP ranged between 7.8 and 82.2 mmol O2 m−2 d−1, CR ranged between −108.5 and −13.6 mmol O2 m−2 d−1, and NCP ranged between −53.2 and −5.7 mmol O2 m−2 d−1. In the P. oceanica macrophytodetritus accumulation, GPP ranged between 5.7 and 91.6 mmol O2 m−2 d−1, CR ranged between −112.8 and −27.2 mmol O2 m−2 d−1, and NCP ranged between −46.8 and −9.9 mmol O2 m−2 d−1. GPP in both the epilithic macroalgae community and the P. oceanica macrophytodetritus accumulation peaked in summer and was lowest in fall, following the seasonal variation of incoming light. GPP correlated to macroalgal biomass but was unrelated to the biomass of living macroscopic plant material in the P. oceanica macrophytodetritus accumulation. The annual average of GPP was equivalent in the epilithic macroalgae and P. oceanica macrophytodetritus accumulation communities (17.6 and 19.4mol O2 m−2 yr−1). Both the epilithic macroalgae community and the P. oceanica macrophytodetritus accumulation were net heterotrophic with an annual average NCP of −6.1 and −8.8mol O2 m−2 yr−1, respectively. The NCP of the adjacent P. oceanica meadow at 10 m depth based on simultaneous measurements based on the open water O2 mass balance from moored O2 probes (optodes) was 28.9mol O2 m−2 yr−1. The potential export of dissolved organic carbon from the P. oceanica meadow could quantitatively meet the carbon demand to sustain the net heterotrophy of the adjacent epilithic macroalgae community in the Bay of Revellata. We also show the limitation and possibly over-estimation of extrapolating decay rates based on litter bag experiments with small quantities of material to “real” macrophytodetritus biomass densities.

Active remote sensing data and dispersal processes improve predictions for an invasive aquatic plant during a climatic extreme in Great Lakes coastal wetlands

Invasive aquatic plants pose a significant threat to coastal wetlands. Predicting suitable habitat for invasive aquatic plants in uninvaded yet vulnerable wetlands remains a critical task to prevent further harm to these ecosystems. The integration of remote sensing and geospatial data into species distribution models (SDMs) can help predict where new invasions are likely to occur by generating spatial outputs of habitat suitability. The objective of this study was to assess the efficacy of utilizing active remote sensing datasets (synthetic aperture radar (SAR) and light detection and ranging (LiDAR) with multispectral imagery and other geospatial data in predicting the potential distribution of an invasive aquatic plant based on its biophysical habitat requirements and dispersal dynamics. We also considered a climatic extreme (lake water levels) during the study period to investigate how these predictions may change between years. We compiled a time series of 1628 field records on the occurrence of Hydrocharis morsus-ranae (European frogbit; EFB) with nine remote sensing and geospatial layers as predictors to train and assess the predictive capacity of random forest models to generate habitat suitability in Great Lakes coastal wetlands in northern Michigan, USA. We found that SAR and LiDAR data were useful as proxies for key biophysical characteristics of EFB habitat (emergent vegetation and water depth), and that a vegetation index calculated from spectral imagery was one of the most important predictors of EFB occurrence. Our SDM using all predictors yielded the highest mean overall accuracy of 88.3% and a true skill statistic of 75.7%. Two of the most important predictors of EFB occurrence were dispersal-related: 1) distance to the nearest known EFB population (m), and 2) distance to nearest public boat launch (m). The area of highly suitable habitat (pixels assigned ≥0.8 probability) was 74% larger during a climatically extreme high water-level year compared to an average year. Our findings demonstrate that active remote sensing can be integrated into SDM workflows as proxies for important drivers of invasive species expansion that are difficult to measure in other ways. Moreover, the importance of a proxy variable for endogenous dispersal (distance to nearest known population) in these SDMs indicates that EFB is currently spreading, and thereby less influenced by within-site dynamics such as interspecific competition. Lastly, we found that extreme climatic conditions can dramatically change this species’ niche, and therefore we recommend that future studies include dynamic climate conditions in SDMs to more accurately forecast the spread during early invasion stages.

Declustering characteristics of the North China Plain seismic belt and its effect on probabilistic seismic hazard analysis

The accurate and impartial identification of background seismic activity is an important foundation for earthquake model construction and probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA). We use the Gardner and Knopoff, Reasenberg, nearest-neighbor and stochastic declustering methods to decluster in the North China Plain seismic belt, analyzing the effect of declustering. We optimize the input parameters of the algorithms through Kolmogorov-Smirnov Poisson distribution tests (e.g., the clustering threshold of the nearest-neighbor method is set to 0.6). Four algorithms demonstrate good declustering effects, removing the impact of the strong seismicity in Tangshan while retaining similar trends to all events. The occurrence of major earthquake events can significantly impact the declustering characteristics in terms of time, space and magnitude. There is a difference in the overall hazard between the four declustering algorithms and the Fifth Generation Seismic Ground Motion Parameters Zonation Map of China. The difference in seismic hazard curves is mainly influenced by the annual average occurrence rate (background rates) and the Gutenberg-Richter b value, with the effect of the b value being more pronounced. The analysis of the effect of algorithms and their impact on PSHA can provide reference for earthquake risk assessment, engineering seismic design and disaster research.

Sustainable development goals, governance and assessment of the impact of urban growth on vegetation cover in Benin City, Nigeria, using land-use–land-cover change trajectories

Land-use/cover (LULC) and governance are key elements in the attainment of the Sustainable Development Goals. This study focused primarily on LULC changes in Benin City, Nigeria, from 1992 to 2022; to examine how urban growth affected vegetation cover across four time points: 1992, 2002, 2015 and 2022. Variable LULC classifications considered included: built-up areas, open spaces/bare lands, vegetations, waterbodies and wetlands. In three decades (1992–2022), increases in the built-up, open space/bare land and wetland LULC were observed and attributed to population increases and higher infrastructural demands whereas evident reductions in the sizes of vegetation and waterbody categories were ascribed to anthropogenic activities and climate events. The average annual rates of change in the built-up and vegetation LULC increased (7.28%) and decreased (−3.02%), respectively, between 1992 and 2022; with the built-up area experiencing a 218% increase from 6493 to 20,672 (km2) whereas vegetation decreased by 90% from 23,445 to 2239 (km2). The corollary is that urban growth, exemplified by the built-up LULC, was progressive while vegetation cover was depleted, in the 30-year period. Changes in five other periods were also interrogated. Government and stakeholders-promoted afforestation and agroforestry programs are recommended as plausible solutions to check vegetation-cover depletion. Other solutions proffered include the support of relevant farmers’ trainings in climate-smart and hydroponic agriculture, and the application of sustainable farming techniques. Policymakers and estate developers/managers should encourage sustainable land governance and cities with resilience and coping capacities; to tackle the problem of climate change, with high emphasis on green area developments.

Trend Analysis of the Burden of Hypertensive Heart Disease in China from 1990 to 2021

Objective: To quantitatively analyze the burden of hypertensive heart disease (HHD) in China and provide a scientific basis for prevention and control strategies. Methods: Data from the Global Burden of Disease 2021 database were used to assess the disease burden, deaths, years lived with disability (YLDs), and risk factors for HHD in the Chinese population from 1990 to 2021. Results: From 1990 to 2021, HHD cases in China increased from 1.5 million to 3.9 million, with an average annual growth rate of 2.83%. Prevalence rose from 127.76/100,000 to 259.00/100,000, while age-standardized prevalence decreased by 0.68% annually. HHD deaths increased from 232,478 to 320,247, with a mortality rate rise from 19.76/100,000 to 22.56/100,000, though age-standardized mortality decreased by 2.68% annually. YLDs rose from 124,386 to 301,426, with the rate increasing by 2.20% annually, while age-standardized YLDs decreased by 0.67% annually. High sodium intake and low fruit consumption were key risk factors for HHD deaths. Deaths related to low vegetable intake decreased until 2005 and then rose, while deaths from lead exposure showed a similar pattern. Conclusion: HHD cases and prevalence increased significantly, but age-standardized prevalence and mortality rates declined, reflecting the impact of an aging population and improved health interventions. The rise in YLDs highlights the long-term impact on patients’ quality of life. Key risk factors included high sodium intake and low fruit consumption, emphasizing the importance of dietary improvements in HHD prevention. HHD remains a significant public health challenge in China, requiring continuous research and targeted prevention strategies.

Impacts of climate change on urban stormwater runoff quantity and quality in a cold region

Climate change poses significant challenges to urban environments affecting both flood risks and stormwater pollutant loadings. However, studies on variations in stormwater runoff quantity and quality in cold regions, which are highly sensitive to climate change, are notably limited. Integrating climatic, hydrologic, and hydraulic modelling, the study assesses the potential impacts of climate change on stormwater runoff volume and pollutant dynamics in a Canadian urban watershed (Calgary). A two-year field program was conducted to support the calibration and validation of the Storm Water Management Model (SWMM). Intensity–duration–frequency curves were employed to evaluate the impacts of climate change on peak flow rate and flooding duration. In addition, typical dry, average, and wet years were applied to continuously simulate stormwater runoff quantity and quality during the 2050s and 2080s. The results suggest substantial increases in peak flow rates and flooding durations, particularly for the 5-year return period rainfall, with 1-h, 4-h, and 24-h peak inflow rates increasing by 74.3% (170.7%), 89.2% (158.4%), and 64.1% (102.8%) in the 2050s (2080s) Furthermore, the runoff quantity is projected to rise by 2.4–10.2% in the 2050s and 11.8–17.5% in the 2080s. Total suspended solids (TSS), total nitrogen (TN), and total phosphorus (TP) loadings are anticipated to increase by 2.0–36.1%, 3.1–21.4%, and 4.1–20.7%, respectively. As a result, the current stormwater system could overload and stormwater quality is likely to deteriorate under the impact of climate change. The findings are beneficial for cold regions to develop adaptive strategies that enhance urban water security and environmental sustainability under climate change.