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Infectious Disease Emergencies: Preparedness and Response

For too long, the theory and practice of infectious disease outbreak response has been the domain of a small number of experienced responders. The COVID-19 pandemic brought global attention to the requirements of effective outbreak response, and the need for preparation across the key pillars. Decisionmakers, early career practitioners and those in the field now have access to a comprehensive text that brings together evidence based and practical insights from the best in the business. Dale Fisher, Professor of Medicine at the National University of Singapore, was chair of WHO’s Global Outbreak Alert and Response Network prior to and throughout most of the pandemic. In this massive collaborative effort, he marshals nearly 100 top public health leaders and experts from the front lines to present 37 chapters on pandemic preparedness and response, drawing heavily on experiences from COVID-19, as well as from Ebola, MERS, SARS-1, influenza and other outbreaks of modern times. The contributors include experts from health ministries and Centres for Disease Control and national public health institutions around the world, from international organizations like the WHO, MSF, IFRC and UNICEF and from research institutions and various NGOs from dozens of countries, adding to the diversity and richness of the descriptions. The book can be used as a reference or as a textbook, where each chapter describes the features of outbreak preparedness, including field epidemiology, risk communications, managing health services in a pandemic, vaccine management, leadership, contact tracing and laboratory management and testing amongst others.

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Modelling to inform strategy

The application of mathematical modelling to the dynamics of infectious disease outbreaks has been pivotal over the past five decades. The significance of such modelling escalated during the COVID-19 pandemic, influencing political decisions and shaping public discourse. Infectious disease models enhance our understanding of epidemiology and disease dynamics, predict transmission rates and patterns, and aid in evaluating public health interventions. Despite their utility, models cannot fully encapsulate the complexities of real-world scenarios, which are influenced by dynamic social behaviours and policy changes. This chapter explains the key model parameters and epidemiological indices fundamental to infectious disease modelling, such as the basic reproduction number \mathcal{R}_{0} and the effective reproduction number {R}_{t}. These indices predict disease trajectories, inform vaccination strategies, and guide public health responses. The chapter also discusses the implications of symptom profiles, infectivity, incubation periods, disease severity, test positivity, and vaccine efficacy on modelling efforts. Furthermore, it underscores the importance of collaborative efforts between modellers and public health officials to ensure the accuracy and applicability of models in diverse contexts. Ultimately, infectious disease models are invaluable tools for forecasting disease spread and severity, guiding critical healthcare resources, and informing policy decisions to mitigate the impact of outbreaks.

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