Global temperatures exceeded pre-industrial conditions by 1.1°C during the decade 2011-2020 and further warming is projected by climate models. An increasing number of climate variables exhibit significant changes compared to the past decades, even beyond the noise of internal climate variability. To determine the year when climate change signals can be detected, the concept of time of emergence (ToE) is well established. Additionally, climate projections are communicated increasingly frequently through global warming levels (GWLs) rather than time horizons. Yet, ToE and GWL have barely been combined so far. Here, we apply five Single Model Initial-condition Large Ensembles (SMILEs) to derive global warming levels of emergence (GWLoE) of four temperature and precipitation indices. We show that the concept of GWLoE is particularly promising to constrain temperature projections and proves a viable tool to communicate scientific results. We find that >75% of the global population is exposed to emerged signals for nighttime temperatures at a GWL of 1.5°C, increasing to >95% at 2.0°C. Daily maximum temperature follows a similar, yet less pronounced path. Emerged signals for mean and extreme precipitation start appearing at current GWLs and increase steadily with further warming (~20% population exposed at 2.0°C). Related probability ratios for the occurrence of extremes indicate a strong increase where temperature extremes reach widespread saturation (extremes occur every year) particularly in (sub)tropical regions below 2.5°C warming. These results indicate that current times are a critical period for climate action as every fraction of additional warming substantially increases the adverse effects on human wellbeing.

The fossil shrimp Somalis piauiensis n. gen. n. sp. is a new fossil record of Penaeoidea from the Araripe Basin. The purpose of this study is to describe a new decapod crustacean from the Romualdo Formation of the Santana Group and compare it with other fossil Dendrobranchiata described from this basin. The new fossil is characterized by a carapace with antennal and branchiostegal spines. Long rostrum, with thirteen evident dorsal spines yielding a serrate appearance. The laminar scaphocerite is large with a weakly rounded lateral margin and is longer than the rostrum. The fossil specimen is the first occurrence of shrimp in the Piauí territory.

Moderate size studies demonstrate that BCL6 protein abundance is strikingly higher in the eutopic endometrium of women with endometriosis versus controls.1,2 Furthermore, testing positive for BCL6 overexpression (without further treatment) correlates with IVF failure, while suppression of endometriosis or surgical treatment improves outcomes providing a basis for the ReceptivaDx® test.3,4,5,6 Herein, we utilize our database of almost 4000 results of ReceptivaDx® testing from 356 centers including 329 from the United States and 27 international to retrospectively learn more about the implications of high BCL6 results.

<p>The frequency and intensity of heavy and extreme precipitation events in Europe have increased since the 1950s. Earlier studies have found, using observational datasets, that frequency increases more than intensity and that both increase more with event rareness. Here we compare changes in intensity and frequency for different observational and model datasets. Both CMIP6 global models with ensembles and regionally downscaled model results are analyzed. The regional models (from CORDEX) are driven by both reanalysis and CMIP5 models. Data are analyzed over two 30-year periods from 1951 to 1980 and 1981 to 2010. Results show that the models do not manage to produce the same increase in frequency as observed, however results are more similar for intensity increase. There are large differences in the change in extreme precipitation in model ensembles. The probability density functions for each of the observational and model datasets show that there are differences in the pattern of the shift between the two time periods.</p>

Abstract. For the radiative impact of individual climate forcings, most previous studies focused on the global mean values at the top of the atmosphere (TOA), and less attention has been paid to surface processes, especially for black carbon (BC) aerosols. In this study, the surface radiative responses to five different forcing agents were analyzed by using idealized model simulations. Our analyses reveal that for greenhouse gases, solar irradiance, and scattering aerosols, the surface temperature changes are mainly dictated by the changes of surface radiative heating, but for BC, surface energy redistribution between different components plays a more crucial role. Globally, when a unit BC forcing is imposed at TOA, the net shortwave radiation at the surface decreases by -5.87±0.67 W m−2 (W m−2)−1 (averaged over global land without Antarctica), which is partially offset by increased downward longwave radiation (2.32±0.38 W m−2 (W m−2)−1 from the warmer atmosphere, causing a net decrease in the incoming downward surface radiation of -3.56±0.60 W m−2 (W m−2)−1. Despite a reduction in the downward radiation energy, the surface air temperature still increases by 0.25±0.08 K because of less efficient energy dissipation, manifested by reduced surface sensible (-2.88±0.43 W m−2 (W m−2)−1) and latent heat flux (-1.54±0.27 W m−2 (W m−2)−1), as well as a decrease in Bowen ratio (-0.20±0.07 (W m−2)−1). Such reductions of turbulent fluxes can be largely explained by enhanced air stability (0.07±0.02 K (W m−2)−1), measured as the difference of the potential temperature between 925 hPa and surface, and reduced surface wind speed (-0.05±0.01 m s−1 (W m−2)−1). The enhanced stability is due to the faster atmospheric warming relative to the surface, whereas the reduced wind speed can be partially explained by enhanced stability and reduced Equator-to-pole atmospheric temperature gradient. These rapid adjustments under BC forcing occur in the lower atmosphere and propagate downward to influence the surface energy redistribution and thus surface temperature response, which is not observed under greenhouse gases or scattering aerosols. Our study provides new insights into the impact of absorbing aerosols on surface energy balance and surface temperature response.

Esse trabalho tem como objetivo conhecer percepções, sentimentos, habilidades e desafios de preceptores vinculados ao Programa Residência Pedagógica (IFPI) na condução das atividades docentes e orientação frente às exigências impostas pelo ensino remoto. A pesquisa é básica, de natureza observacional com abordagem quali-quantitativa. Toda a pesquisa ocorreu de forma não presencial e utilizou ferramentas de comunicação digital no trato aos participantes. A efetivação da participação ocorreu por meio da concordância a Termo de Consentimento Livre e Esclarecido que garantiu entre outras coisas o anonimato, retirada dos dados da pesquisa a qualquer momento anterior à publicação, bem como a divulgação científica dos resultados. Para coleta, utilizou-se um questionário semiestruturado produzido por meio da plataforma Google Forms, subdividido em quatro seções, sendo a primeira responsável pela caracterização do perfil, a segunda relacionada a percepção dos preceptores quanto a realização do programa Residência Pedagógica, uma relacionada ao uso de tecnologias digitais, e por fim uma relacionada aos sentimentos associados ao ensino remoto. Constatamos que apesar das dificuldades apresentadas e do difícil momento que vivenciamos, as experiências relacionadas ao ensino remoto vêm proporcionando o desenvolvimento e aprimoramento de diversas habilidades docentes pelos preceptores. Além disso, os participantes também relatam que os aprendizados construídos nos dois primeiros módulos da Residência Pedagógica servirão de base para novas estratégias a serem utilizadas nas aulas presenciais. Por fim, ressaltamos a importância de outros estudos que demonstrem os impactos do ensino remoto na educação básica e as transformações metodológicas por ele estimuladas a serem vivenciadas na educação presencial.

Researchers have long argued that politicians created the modern administrative state in order to bring “experts” into government, and especially into the regulation of business. Yet Progressive-Era politicians themselves rarely discussed the need for experts in creating one form of administrative governance, the independent regulatory commission. By examining the contemporary understanding of regulatory commissions, this article shows that they were intended to act as fact-finding bodies for courts and to substitute for vacillating juries in particular cases. The commission’s most important advantage was that it acquired “experience” over time not that its appointees were already academics or experts in a particular field. This article also shows that the appointments to these commissions did not demonstrate a desire for apolitical expertise. It makes the first examination of all members appointed to the Interstate Commerce Commission, Federal Trade Commission, Federal Power Commission, Federal Communication Commission, and the Securities and Exchange Commission in the period from 1887 to 1935. It finds that political and sectional balance, rather than independent expertise, were the most important criteria for these commissions’ members, at least until the late 1920s, after the end of the supposed Progressive Era.