Zur wirtschaftspolitischen Nützlichkeit von Konjunkturprognosen

Abstract

Abstract The economic policy forum deals with the question of whether economic policies need economic forecasts. Principally, all three authors agree on their usefulness. However, while Ernst Helmstädter argues that such forecasts can improve the decisions of economic policy-makers, he identifies the making of forecasts as the main problem. In order to enhance the predictive power of forecasts and thus their usefulness for economic policy, he suggests to focus more at cyclical regularities which can be observed for important economic indicators such as exports and investments. Michael Hüther ascertains that the requirements to economic forecasts have changed over the years. Nowadays, the potential for economic growth and its determinants have become more significant. Thus the instruments of economic policy aim at an increasing steadiness of the economy. Nevertheless, there is still a need for economic forecasts. However, the focus has changed from short-term to medium-term forecasts. Enno Langfeldt remarks that forecast errors are usually higher when there is a turnaround of the economy. This is due to a time lag in the availability of economic data and wrong assumptions about the development of important indicators. According to him, there is a potential to improve the forecasting procedure by using modern methodological techniques. By doing so economic policy-makers, firms and households can profit from economic forecasts.