Use of quantitative models in UK economic appraisal and policy-making

Abstract

Quantitative models are used extensively in economic policy-making and forecasting. It is argued that the way that they are used is rather different from the usual formal account of their role, because of the political and social realities of the appraisal and policy-making process. After reviewing the standard account of the use of models, the paper provides an alternative account and attempts to document it with quotations from politicians and economic policy advisers. The conclusion discusses possible implications for other disciplines where quantitative models are an input into the policymaking process.