Z-number based fuzzy MCDM models for analyzing non-traditional security threats to finance supply chains: A case study from Vietnam

Abstract

Non-traditional security (NTS) threats have a vast and profound impact on many aspects of economic, political, social, and many other areas, especially supply chain finance (SCF), particularly in countries like Vietnam, which potentially affects the economic efficiency of businesses' supply chain financial, thereby affecting the general economy of the country and the world. In order to prevent and minimize the negative impacts caused by NTS threats to SCF, this study was conducted to identify NTS threats affecting SCF in Vietnam, at the same time calculate the weight of the impact level and find out the cause and effect relationship between them. Solution strategies are also proposed and ranked, thereby serving as a reference basis for relevant parties to choose appropriate response solutions. Due to the multi-criteria nature of NTS threats, the multiple criteria decision-making (MCDM) method is used in combination with the Z-number concept and Fuzzy set theory to approach the problem of certainty and increase the accuracy of study. The NTS threats are first identified through a literature review and then validated for suitability using the DELPHI technique (DELPHI). Suitable threats will be determined by relationship, weighted by Decision Making Trial And Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) method. Proposed strategies are ranked using the Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) method. The results indicate that there are 19 NTS factors affecting SCF in Vietnam, and the global economic downturn, pandemic and health crisis, financial crisis and cybersecurity risk are the four root cause factors with the most decisive influence. Businesses and concerns need to prioritize addressing these four threats because they not only have a strong impact but also entail many other threats. The two strategies considered to be the most effective are a sustainable practice and a risk-hedging strategy. Businesses, governments, and stakeholders also should pay attention to the macroeconomic environment, technology, and environment and build sustainable businesses, regularly monitoring economic fluctuations and creating plans to prevent risks.