Zero-Inflated Time Series Modelling of COVID-19 Deaths in Ghana.

Kassim Tawiah,Wahab Abdul Iddrisu,Killian Asampana Asosega,Orish Ebere Orisakwe

doi:10.1155/2021/5543977

Kassim Tawiah, Wahab Abdul Iddrisu + Show 2 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.1155/2021/5543977

Copy DOI

Abstract

Discrete count time series data with an excessive number of zeros have warranted the development of zero-inflated time series models to incorporate the inflation of zeros and the overdispersion that comes with it. In this paper, we investigated the characteristics of the trend of daily count of COVID-19 deaths in Ghana using zero-inflated models. We envisaged that the trend of COVID-19 deaths per day in Ghana portrays a general increase from the onset of the pandemic in the country to about day 160 after which there is a general decrease onward. We fitted a zero-inflated Poisson autoregressive model and zero-inflated negative binomial autoregressive model to the data in the partial-likelihood framework. The zero-inflated negative binomial autoregressive model outperformed the zero-inflated Poisson autoregressive model. On the other hand, the dynamic zero-inflated Poisson autoregressive model performed better than the dynamic negative binomial autoregressive model. The predicted new death based on the zero-inflated negative binomial autoregressive model indicated that Ghana's COVID-19 death per day will rise sharply few days after 30th November 2020 and drastically fall just as in the observed data.

Highlights

Ghana confirmed its first two cases of the novel coronavirus disease on 12th March 2020 at the Noguchi Memorial Institute for Medical Research (NMIMR) [1]. e two cases were all imported
Results and Discussion e trend of COVID-19 death in Ghana as illustrated in Figure 2 gives the impression of a general increase in the death toll from day zero to about day 160 after which there is an impression of a general decrease in the death toll to day 250 and beyond. e increase in the number of deaths was expected as the infection rate and active and severe cases continued to soar from day zero to day 150. e decrease in the number of active and severe cases amidst a rise in the infection rate could be attributed to the decline in the number of deaths
Even though infection rate continues to rise, the number of deaths being reported in most days ought to be looked into in order to confirm whether the majority of the COVID-19 patients in Ghana have developed resistance to the pandemic or they responded positive to care procedures meted to them at COVID-19 treatment centers

Summary

Introduction

Ghana confirmed its first two cases of the novel coronavirus disease on 12th March 2020 at the Noguchi Memorial Institute for Medical Research (NMIMR) [1]. Ere was the implementation of social distancing protocols and the compulsory wearing of face/nose masks. Ere was ban on all social gatherings. Private funerals and weddings with a maximum of 25 people with strict adherence to social distancing protocols were permitted. All public transport operators were mandated to reduce their passenger intake in line with the social distancing protocols. E Government cushioned the entire population with free water since water is key to the fight against the spread of SARS-CoV-2. Ere was fifty percent electricity subsidy for all consumers. Lifeline consumers of electricity were given hundred percent subsidies. ese freebies were initially for a period of 1st

Methods

Results

Conclusion