Zeitenwende à la française: Continuity and change in French foreign policy after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine

Abstract

This article analyses the evolution of French foreign and security policy in response to Russia’s war on Ukraine from early 2022 to NATO’s Vilnius summit (June 2023). It introduces the idea of a Zeitenwende à la française and argues that France’s policy has, albeit more gradually than it was the case in other European states, undergone significant shifts. Drawing on a neoclassical realist approach, this article shows that geopolitical factors – namely the balance of power, balance of threat, and considerations regarding influence in Europe – explain France’s policy shifts, particularly on European Union enlargement and NATO membership for Ukraine. Simultaneously, this adaptation allowed continuity regarding the fundamentals of French foreign and security policy, especially strengthening European Union defence and Europe’s role as a powerful global player ( Europe puissance). In this context, domestic factors, namely the views of President Macron and strategic culture, created a permissive strategic environment for following the systemic imperative.