Zambia : long-term generation expansion study - executive summary.

Abstract

The objective of this study is to analyze possible long-term development options of the Zambian electric power system in the period up to 2015. The analysis involved the hydro operations studies of the Zambezi river basin and the systems planning studies for the least-cost generation expansion planning. Two well-known and widely accepted computer models were used in the analysis: PC-VALORAGUA model for the hydro operations and optimization studies and the WASP-III Plus model for the optimization of long-term system development. The WASP-III Plus model is a part of the Argonne National Laboratory's Energy and Power Evaluation Model (ENPEP). The analysis was conducted in close collaboration with the Zambia Electricity Supply Corporation (ZESCO). On the initiative from The World Bank, the sponsor of the study, ZESCO formed a team of experts that participated in the analysis and were trained in the use of computer models. Both models were transferred to ZESCO free of charge and installed on several computers in the ZESCO corporate offices in Lusaka. In September-October 1995, two members of the ZESCO National Team participated in a 4-week training course at Argonne National Laboratory near Chicago, U.S.A., focusing on the long-term system expansion planning using the WASP and VALORAGUA models. The hydropower operations studies were performed for the whole Zambezi river basin, including the full installation of the Kariba power station, and the Cahora Bassa hydro power station in Mozambique. The analysis also included possible future projects such as Itezhi-Tezhi, Kafue Gorge Lower, and Batoka Gorge power stations. As hydropower operations studies served to determine the operational characteristics of the existing and future hydro power plants, it was necessary to simulate the whole Zambezi river basin in order to take into account all interactions and mutual influences between the hydro power plants. In addition, it allowed for the optimization of reservoir management and optimization of hydro cascades, resulting in the better utilization of available hydro potential. Numerous analyses were performed for different stages of system development. These include system configurations that correspond to years 1997, 2001, 2015 and 2020. Additional simulations were performed in order to determine the operational parameters of the three existing hydro power stations Victoria Falls, Kariba, and Kafue Gorge Upper, that correspond to the situation before and after their rehabilitation. The rehabilitation works for these three major power stations, that would bring their operational parameters and availability back to the design level, are planned to be carried out in the period until 2000. The main results of the hydro operations studies are presented in Table ES-1. These results correspond to VALORAGUA simulations of system configurations in the years 2001 and 2015. The minimum, average, and maximum electricity generation is based on the simulation of monthly water inflows that correspond to the chronological series of unregulated water inflows at each hydro profile in the period from April 1961 to March 1990. The recommended hydrology dataset provided in the Hydrology Report of the SADC Energy Project AAA 3.8 was used for this study.