Abstract
The article is dedicated to developing of methodological basis for the probability of enterprises’ bankruptcyforecasting. The authors have identified the reasons of the existing bankruptcy forecasting models failure, thenecessity of models developing for companies in various industries on the basis of the existing instruments. As aresult of the multivariate discriminate analysis we offer Z-scores based on the average annual rates of change andtaking into account the peculiarities of the industry companies. The model is developed for companiesspecializing in the production of building materials, it has a high level of productivity - 90.4%.
Highlights
The high level of competition and the unstable economic environment necessitate the use of crisis management instruments
The authors have identified the reasons of the existing bankruptcy forecasting models failure, the necessity of models developing for companies in various industries on the basis of the existing instruments
The model is developed for companies specializing in the production of building materials, it has a high level of productivity - 90.4%
Summary
The high level of competition and the unstable economic environment necessitate the use of crisis management instruments. Systematization of research on the application of bankruptcy forecasting methods is presented in the work by Ravi Kumar, P., Ravi, V. The capital structure change towards the predominance of the borrowed sources is characteristic of the growth stage, for a maturity stage - the growth of asset turnover will be quite normal, for the decline stage – the reduction of liquidity ratios, etc. In this connection, it is necessary to take into account the relevance of the model used for the current stage of the cycle. Currently preserved urgency of development of modern economic and mathematical models to predict the bankruptcy of companies
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