Yugoslav Refugees, Displaced Persons and the Civil War

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Background Slovenia and Croatia declared independence on 25 June 1991. That was the date of the collective thanatos' which led to the disintegration of Yugoslavia. As a result of German pressure, the European Community, followed by a number of other states, recognized the independence of the secessionist republics on 15 January 1992 and buried the second Y~goslavia.~ Although the Westernmedia have now shifted their attention to the former Soviet Union, where other similar and potentially even more dangerous conflicts are brewing, that is not because genuine peace has been established in former Yugoslavia. To the contrary: blood continues to flow among the civilian population and among military and paramilitary personnel. As I write, the war is spreading to Bosnia and Herzegovina and threatens to turn into a disaster of far wider scope than the war in Croatia. The conflict has already claimed 3,083 civilian victims according to Croatian sources. The Yugoslav Army has confirmed about 1,279 dead soldiers. But it is reliably estimated that from 10,000 to 30,000people have been killed in all and another 30,000 people are reported mi~s ing .~ The estimated number of refugees ranges from 600,000 to over 1 milliona4 This is the third mass migration of Yugoslavians since 1939. The first consisted of people fleeing persecution in the Second World War and the mainly involuntary internal migration and emigration of Yugoslavians in the immediate post-war period. The second mass population movement was a legal labour migration, mainly to various West European countries as part of the guest worker programme of the 1960s and 1970s. It was a unique case among the socialist countries. The present tragedy can only be compared to that of the Second World War; from an international perspective, the United Nations High Commission on Refugees (UNHCR) compares it in scope, scale of atrocities and consequences for the population, to the Cambodian civil war. In three ways, analyzing the refugees' situation contributes to our understanding of issues beyond the human tragedy of the people themselves. First, it demystifies the genesis of the Yugoslav conflict, which is often reduced to a matter ethnic hatred. It shows that the separation of populations along lines, while favouredby the power elites of Croatia, Slovenia and Bosnia-Herzegovina, only intensifies existing problems or creates new ones. Second, it draws attention to a category of for whom refugee status does not apply and therefore underscores the need to grant these people more security and protection than they have so far enjoyed. Third, given the relatively small number of refugees who have fled abroad compared to the number who have sought refuge within the boundaries of former Yugoslavia, the Yugoslav case may also help de-dramatize the East I West invasion scenarios which predict disruptive mass movements caused by political and violence or ecological catastrophe in the countries aligned with the former Soviet empire. The Demographic Structure The 600,000 to 1 million displaced persons referred to above come from Croatia, whose total population is 4.7 million (see Figure 1). Moreover, most of these people come from a relatively small area the front line, which is now under the control of the Yugoslav Army and Serbian forces. This means that in the course of six months, an average of at least 100,000 people were forced to leave their homes each month. Vast areas have been devastated and depopulated. In general, the destinations of the refugees are the larger urban centres notably the capitals of the republics, but also such regions as Vojvodina and Istria. About 300,000 refugees have sought shelter in safe areas of Croatia. Over 160,000 have fled to Serbia (including Vojvodina), around 100,000