Yield curve extrapolation with machine learning

Abstract

Abstract Yield curve extrapolation to unobservable tenors is a key technique for the market-consistent valuation of actuarial liabilities required by Solvency II and forthcoming similar regulations. Since the regulatory method, the Smith–Wilson method, is inconsistent with observable yield curve dynamics, parsimonious parametric models, the Nelson–Siegel model and its extensions, are often used for yield curve extrapolation in risk management. However, it is difficult for the parsimonious parametric models to extrapolate yield curves without excessive volatility because of their limited ability to represent observed yield curves with a limited number of parameters. To extend the representational capabilities, we propose a novel yield curve extrapolation method using machine learning. Using the long short-term memory architecture, we achieve purely data-driven yield curve extrapolation with better generalization performance, stability, and consistency with observed yield curve dynamics than the previous parsimonious parametric models on US and Japanese yield curve data. In addition, our method has model interpretability using the backpropagation algorithm. The findings of this study prove that neural networks, which have recently received considerable attention in mortality forecasting, are useful for yield curve extrapolation, where they have not been used before.