Yield and economic losses in maize caused by ambient ozone in the North China Plain (2014–2017)

Abstract

Maize is the second most important crop per harvested area in the world. The North China Plain (NCP) is a highly populated and relevant agricultural region in China, experiencing some of the highest ozone (O3) concentrations worldwide. It produces ~24% of the total maize production of China in years 2014–2017. For these years, we used observational O3 data in combination with geostatistic methods to estimate county-level production and economic losses due to O3 in the NCP. AOT40 (accumulated ozone exposure over an hourly threshold of 40 ppb) values during the maize growing season (90 days before maturity) progressively increased in the four consecutive years: 13.7 ppm h, 15.4 ppm h, 16.9 ppm h and 22.7 ppm h. Mean relative yield losses were 8.2% in 2014, 9.2% in 2015, 10.4% in 2016 and 13.4% in 2017. These yield losses, derived from exposure-response functions, resulted in crop production losses of 530.3 × 104 t, 617.8 × 104 t, 713.8 × 104 t, and 953.4 × 104 t, as well as economic losses of 2343 million USD, 2672 million USD, 1887 million USD, and 2404 million USD from 2014 to 2017. The NCP is a key area in China for monitoring the effectiveness of the clean air action policies aiming at reducing emissions of air pollutants. Despite these measures, O3 concentrations have increased in NCP, and reduction of this pollutant are challenging. We suggest an increase in the number of rural air quality stations for better characterizing O3 trends in cropland areas, as well as the application of different mitigation measures. They may involve more stringent air quality regulations and changes in crops, breeding tolerant cultivars and a crop management taking into account O3 pollution.