Worldwide Statistical Correlation of Eight Years of Swarm Satellite Data with M5.5+ Earthquakes: New Hints about the Preseismic Phenomena from Space

Abstract

Nowadays, the possibility that medium-large earthquakes could produce some electromagnetic ionospheric disturbances during their preparatory phase is controversial in the scientific community. Some previous works using satellite data from DEMETER, Swarm and, recently, CSES provided several pieces of evidence supporting the existence of such precursory phenomena in terms of single case studies and statical analyses. In this work, we applied a Worldwide Statistical Correlation approach to M5.5+ shallow earthquakes using the first 8 years of Swarm (i.e., from November 2013 to November 2021) magnetic field and electron density signals in order to improve the significance of previous statistical studies and provide some new results on how earthquake features could influence ionospheric electromagnetic disturbances. We implemented new methodologies based on the hypothesis that the anticipation time of anomalies of larger earthquakes is usually longer than that of anomalies of smaller magnitude. We also considered the signal’s frequency to introduce a new identification criterion for the anomalies. We find that taking into account the frequency can improve the statistical significance (up to 25% for magnetic data and up to 100% for electron density). Furthermore, we noted that the frequency of the Swarm magnetic field signal of possible precursor anomalies seems to slightly increase as the earthquake is approaching. Finally, we checked a possible relationship between the frequency of the detected anomalies and earthquake features. The earthquake focal mechanism seems to have a low or null influence on the frequency of the detected anomalies, while the epicenter location appears to play an important role. In fact, land earthquakes are more likely to be preceded by slower (lower frequency) magnetic field signals, whereas sea seismic events show a higher probability of being preceded by faster (higher frequency) magnetic field signals.