Worldwide COVID-19 spreading explained: traveling numbers as a primary driver for the pandemic.

Sérvio P Ribeiro,Geraldo Wilson Fernandes,Wendel Coura-Vital,Alcides V.C De Castro E Silva,Vasco A.C Azevedo,Alexandre B Reis,Igor A.S Das Chagas,Wesley Dáttilo,David S Barbosa,Aristóteles Góes-Neto,Maria Helena F Morais,Camila P Dias

doi:10.1590/0001-3765202020201139

Abstract

The spread of SARS-CoV-2 and the distribution of cases worldwide followed no clear biogeographic, climatic, or cultural trend. Conversely, the internationally busiest cities in all countries tended to be the hardest hit, suggesting a basic, mathematically neutral pattern of the new coronavirus early dissemination. We tested whether the number of flight passengers per time and the number of international frontiers could explain the number of cases of COVID-19 worldwide by a stepwise regression. Analysis were taken by 22 May 2020, a period when one would claim that early patterns of the pandemic establishment were still detectable, despite of community transmission in various places. The number of passengers arriving in a country and the number of international borders explained significantly 49% of the variance in the distribution of the number of cases of COVID-19, and number of passengers explained significantly 14.2% of data variance for cases per million inhabitants. Ecological neutral theory may explain a considerable part of the early distribution of SARS-CoV-2 and should be taken into consideration to define preventive international actions before a next pandemic.

Highlights

SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has spread around the world, but the patterns of dissemination, number of cases and deaths per country, as well as demographic trends, are challenging to be understood
Countries receiving more flights were those most densely populated, regardless of GDP, most developed ones (Japan, top European Countries, Canada, Australia, and United States) or among the 20th largest economies. Both the number of passengers arriving in a country and the number of international borders, explained significantly
We found that one of the likely most straightforward explanations for country vulnerability is how well connected it is internationally in the early stages of a pandemic, and prior a severe local community transmission to be in place, both due to the number of flight passengers and to the number of international borders

Summary

Introduction

SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has spread around the world, but the patterns of dissemination, number of cases and deaths per country, as well as demographic trends, are challenging to be understood. As the countries considered among those with more rigid hygienic habits (based on many times washing hand per day) are evenly distributed from the hardest to the lightest hit countries, such as Brazil and Germany among the top infected, and Australia and Japan mildly infected (UNICEF & WHO 2018). According to UNICEF & WHO (2018), the countries in which people wash their hands less are China and Malaysia, and the latter had as many cases as Australia in the early months of the pandemic (UNICEF & WHO 2018).

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