Abstract
Sultan Hasanudin Airport is one of the largest airports in Indonesia, located in Makassar City. Its strategic location is the entrance of eastern Indonesia because it is a transit airport to other eastern regions of Indonesia. The number of airplane passengers at Sultan Hasanudin Airport has increased and decreased each time depending on certain moments. The increase in the number of passengers is closely related to the moments of religious holidays or year-end holidays. Whereas the decrease in the number of passengers was greatly influenced by the policy of rising plane ticket prices some time ago. Estimated number of passengers every month is needed in planning and making appropriate decisions from the government relating to fluctuations in the number of domestic flight passengers at Sultan Hasanudin Airport. Therefore, accurate forecasting techniques are needed to predict the number of passengers in the future. Because the data pattern of domestic flight passengers at Sultan Hasanudin Airport is not stationary, the ARIMA model can be used. However, the data on the number of passengers has a nonlinear data pattern, so we need a method that can overcome these problems. In this study the SVR model is used to overcome nonlinear patterns in the data. Compared to the ARIMA model, SVR has the advantage because it does not require stationary data assumptions as in ARIMA. The results of forecasting data on the number of domestic flight passengers at Sultan Hasanudin Airport using SVR show better accuracy or accuracy compared to the ARIMA model because it has a smaller MAPE value.
Highlights
Sultan Hasanudin Airport is one of the largest airports in Indonesia, located in Makassar City
Its strategic location is the entrance of eastern Indonesia because it is a transit airport
decreased each time depending on certain moments
Summary
Transportasi telah menjadi kebutuhan dasar masyarakat oleh karenanya dari waktu ke waktu terjadi perkembangan sarana dan alat transportasi. Untuk itu, penting untuk diketahui gambaran fluktuasi jumlah penumpang penerbangan domestik di Bandara Sultan Hasanudin di masa yang akan datang. Jumlah penumpang penerbangan domestik di Bandara Sultan Hasanudin memiliki pola yang tidak teratur dengan besaran kenaikan dan penurunan yang bervariatif. Hal ini membuat pergerakan jumlah penumpang penerbangan domestik di Bandara Sultan Hasanudin memiliki hubungan yang sangat kompleks dan nonlinear. Untuk meramalkan fluktuasi jumlah penumpang penerbangan domestik di Bandara Sultan Hasanudin pada periode mendatang dapat dilakukan dengan analisis deret waktu. Model ARIMA dapat digunakan untuk memprediksi data deret waktu nonstasioner pada saat linear. Model Support Vector Regression (SVR) merupakan model peramalan yang dapat digunakan untuk memprediksi data deret waktu nonlinear. Untuk itulah pada penelitian ini, digunakan model ARIMA dan model SVR untuk peramalan data jumlah penumpang penerbangan domestik di Bandara Sultan Hasanudin yang mempunyai pola nonlinear. Model yang terbaik adalah model yang memiliki nilai MAPE lebih kecil
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