Abstract
The outlook for world oil demand is examined within a framework which takes account of total energy demand and the availability of oil supplies over the period to 2005. The major assumptions and uncertainties, as well as the model and rationale which underly the outlook, are discussed. The analysis points to a 30% rise in world oil demand and an 85% rise in the demand for Middle East oil between now and 2005, with a concomitant gradual rise in influence of Middle East producers over oil prices. However, major new global initiatives by governments, for example to mitigate climate change, could significantly alter the outlook by appreciably reducing the future growth in oil demand.
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