Peaking of World Oil Production and Its Mitigation

Abstract

Publisher Summary The world has never faced a problem like the peaking of oil. Previous energy transitions—such as wood to coal or coal to oil—were gradual and evolutionary; oil peaking will be abrupt and revolutionary. Satisfying the increasing oil demand not only requires continuing to produce older oil fields with their declining production but also requires finding new ones, capable of producing sufficient quantities of oil to both compensate for the shrinking production from older fields and provide the increase demanded by the market. A number of options exist that can be applied to lessen oil dependence and reduce economic vulnerability to oil price increases. They include reduction in energy demand, methods to increase oil production, and the introduction of alternative fuels that can substitute for oil in key market applications. The implementation of mitigation strategies will require an intense effort over decades. There are a number of factors that could conceivably impact the peaking of world oil production. Among the upsides, or factors that might ease the problems of world oil peaking, is the possibility that the pessimists are wrong again and peaking does not occur for many decades. Alternatively, Middle East oil reserves turn out to be much larger than publicly stated or a number of new super-giant oil fields are found and brought into production well before oil peaking occurs.