Abstract
ObjectiveTo advance the goal of “Grand Convergence” in global health by 2035, this study tested the convergence hypothesis in the progress of the health status of individuals from 193 countries, using both standard and cutting-edge convergence metrics.MethodsThe study used multiple data sources. The methods section is categorized into two parts. (1) Health inequality measures were used for estimating inter-country inequalities. Dispersion Measure of Mortality (DMM) is used for measuring absolute inequality and Gini Coefficient for relative inequality. (2) We tested the standard convergence hypothesis for the progress in Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) and Life Expectancy at Birth (LEB) during 1950 to 2015 using methods ranging from simple graphical tools (catching-up plots) to standard parametric (absolute β and σ-convergence) and nonparametric econometric models (kernel density estimates) to detect the presence of convergence (or divergence) and convergence clubs.FindingsThe findings lend support to the "rise and fall" of world health inequalities measured using Life Expectancy at Birth (LEB) and Infant Mortality Rate (IMR). The test of absolute β-convergence for the entire period and in the recent period supports the convergence hypothesis for LEB (β = -0.0210 [95% CI -0.0227 - -0.0194], p<0.000) and rejects it for IMR (β = 0.0063 [95% CI 0.0037–0.0089], p<0.000). However, results also suggest a setback in the speed of convergence in health status across the countries in recent times, 5.4% during 1950–55 to 1980–85 compared to 3% during 1985–90 to 2010–15. Although inequality based convergence metrics showed evidence of divergence replacing convergence during 1985–90 to 2000–05, from the late 2000s, divergence was replaced by re-convergence although with a slower speed of convergence. While the non-parametric test of convergence shows an emerging process of regional convergence rather than global convergence.ConclusionWe found that with a current rate of progress (2.2% per annum) the “Grand convergence” in global health can be achieved only by 2060 instead of 2035. We suggest that a roadmap to achieve “Grand Convergence” in global health should include more radical changes and work for increasing efficiency with equity to achieve a “Grand convergence” in health status across the countries by 2035.
Highlights
Reduction in mortality reflects improvements in the health and well-being of populations
(2) We tested the standard convergence hypothesis for the progress in Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) and Life Expectancy at Birth (LEB) during 1950 to 2015 using methods ranging from simple graphical tools to standard parametric and nonparametric econometric models to detect the presence of convergence and convergence clubs
We suggest that a roadmap to achieve “Grand Convergence” in global health should include more radical changes and work for increasing efficiency with equity to achieve a “Grand convergence” in health status across the countries by 2035
Summary
Reduction in mortality reflects improvements in the health and well-being of populations. The life expectancy of the population has progressed, at the time of birth and across all age groups and across different countries [4,5]. Life expectancy at birth (LEB) has increased from 46.5 years in 1950–55 to 65.0 years in 1995 to 2000, and to 75.0 years in 2010–15, accounting to more than 50% improvement from 1950–55 to 2010–15. The number of years that a newborn is expected to live, on average, increased globally by 24 years, or by about 3.6 years per decade [8]. The dark side is the persistence of health inequalities across the regions and within individual countries
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
