Global health 2035: a world converging within a generation

What has the Gates Foundation done for global health?

Transforming or tinkering: the world remains unprepared for the next pandemic threat

Investing in health: why, what, and three reflections

Global health governance and the World Bank

In 2020, an estimated 596 million people worldwide had distance vision impairment and a further 510 million had uncorrected near vision impairment.1 Most of these people live in low-income and middle-income countries (LMIC). Eye health is also affected by conditions that do not, at least initially, impair vision. Although these conditions are not currently included in global prevalence estimates, they contribute substantially to the unmet need for eye health services. Vision is important for many aspects of life, and vision impairment can profoundly affect individuals, families, and society. Eye health touches all lives, either directly or indirectly, through its impact on those close to us. The year 2020 marks the culmination of the global initiative to eliminate avoidable blindness, VISION 2020: The Right to Sight (appendix 1 p 7). This initiative provided the framework for national programmes to address eye health over the past 20 years. In 2019, WHO published the World report on vision,2 which was endorsed by the 73rd World Health Assembly in 2020. The report and resolution call for the advancing of eye health as an integral part of universal health coverage, by implementation of integrated people-centred eye care, following the approach outlined in a broader health services framework.3 The Lancet Global Health Commission on Global Eye Health contends that eye health should be part of the mainstream agenda to achieve universal health coverage and sustainable development. We define eye health as the state in which vision, ocular health, and functional ability are maximised, thereby contributing to overall health and wellbeing, social inclusion, and quality of life. Eye health can be considered both a process and an outcome. We define eye care services as those that contribute to any of vision, ocular health, or functional ability being maximised. This report broadly divides into two halves. First, we present evidence for the importance of eye health, supporting the case for urgent action. Second, looking beyond 2020, we examine approaches to enable delivery of eye health services within universal health coverage. In section 1 we summarise the visual system, vision impairment, and common conditions. In section 2, we synthesise several reviews done by the Commission on the relevance of eye health to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), as well as its impact on quality of life, general health, and mortality. In section 3, we describe the magnitude and causes of vision impairment in 2020 and projected global and regional trends. We explore service needs of people with non-vision impairing eye conditions. We propose a more standardised approach to reporting population-based eye health surveys and examine the disability weights applied to vision impairment. In section 4, we summarise findings from a systematic review of eye health economics, identifying important areas for future work. We present a new estimate of global lost productivity associated with vision impairment for 2020, and an analysis of the cost-effectiveness ratios for cataract surgery and refractive error services. In section 5, we outline a bibliometric analysis of eye health research since 2000, and report a global Grand Challenges project, highlighting crucial issues for concerted research and action. Lastly, we address the question of how health systems can practically advance towards delivering high quality integrated people-centred eye care within universal health coverage.2 We argue that business as usual will be insufficient, as evidenced by new analysis of effective cataract surgical coverage data. We examine service delivery components: primary eye care and integration with general health services, workforce strengthening, financing, health information systems, indicators, advocacy, and approaches to increase quality and equity. The development of global eye health This Commission views global eye health through the global health framework articulated by Koplan and colleagues.4 Eye health started with an understanding of the anatomy, physiology, diseases of the eye, and the development of clinical ophthalmology, the medical and surgical discipline for diagnosis and treatment of eye diseases. From the mid-20th century onwards (figure 1), there have been major technological advances in microsurgical techniques for cataract and other conditions, and equipment for diagnosis and treatment of major non-communicable eye diseases, resulting in more effective interventions. There has been an enormous demographic transition, with ageing populations and epidemiological changes from infectious diseases and towards non-communicable diseases, requiring accessible and affordable eye services with long-term follow-up. The increase in demand, emphasis on better quality, and higher cost of more sophisticated diagnostic and treatment services is requiring an increase in resources, which presents enormous public health challenges. Open in a separate window Figure 1 The development of global eye health Blue circles indicate major global developments. Red circles indicate major treatments and programmatic developments. WHA=World Health Assembly. IAPB=International Agency for the Prevention of Blindness. RAAB=Rapid Assessment of Avoidable Blindness. RACSS=Rapid Assessment of Cataract Surgical Services.

Global pandemic perspectives: public health, mental health, and lessons for the future

Has traditional medicine had its day? The need to redefine academic medicine

SummaryBackgroundComprehensive and comparable estimates of health spending in each country are a key input for health policy and planning, and are necessary to support the achievement of national and international health goals. Previous studies have tracked past and projected future health spending until 2040 and shown that, with economic development, countries tend to spend more on health per capita, with a decreasing share of spending from development assistance and out-of-pocket sources. We aimed to characterise the past, present, and predicted future of global health spending, with an emphasis on equity in spending across countries.MethodsWe estimated domestic health spending for 195 countries and territories from 1995 to 2016, split into three categories—government, out-of-pocket, and prepaid private health spending—and estimated development assistance for health (DAH) from 1990 to 2018. We estimated future scenarios of health spending using an ensemble of linear mixed-effects models with time series specifications to project domestic health spending from 2017 through 2050 and DAH from 2019 through 2050. Data were extracted from a broad set of sources tracking health spending and revenue, and were standardised and converted to inflation-adjusted 2018 US dollars. Incomplete or low-quality data were modelled and uncertainty was estimated, leading to a complete data series of total, government, prepaid private, and out-of-pocket health spending, and DAH. Estimates are reported in 2018 US dollars, 2018 purchasing-power parity-adjusted dollars, and as a percentage of gross domestic product. We used demographic decomposition methods to assess a set of factors associated with changes in government health spending between 1995 and 2016 and to examine evidence to support the theory of the health financing transition. We projected two alternative future scenarios based on higher government health spending to assess the potential ability of governments to generate more resources for health.FindingsBetween 1995 and 2016, health spending grew at a rate of 4·00% (95% uncertainty interval 3·89–4·12) annually, although it grew slower in per capita terms (2·72% [2·61–2·84]) and increased by less than $1 per capita over this period in 22 of 195 countries. The highest annual growth rates in per capita health spending were observed in upper-middle-income countries (5·55% [5·18–5·95]), mainly due to growth in government health spending, and in lower-middle-income countries (3·71% [3·10–4·34]), mainly from DAH. Health spending globally reached $8·0 trillion (7·8–8·1) in 2016 (comprising 8·6% [8·4–8·7] of the global economy and $10·3 trillion [10·1–10·6] in purchasing-power parity-adjusted dollars), with a per capita spending of US$5252 (5184–5319) in high-income countries, $491 (461–524) in upper-middle-income countries, $81 (74–89) in lower-middle-income countries, and $40 (38–43) in low-income countries. In 2016, 0·4% (0·3–0·4) of health spending globally was in low-income countries, despite these countries comprising 10·0% of the global population. In 2018, the largest proportion of DAH targeted HIV/AIDS ($9·5 billion, 24·3% of total DAH), although spending on other infectious diseases (excluding tuberculosis and malaria) grew fastest from 2010 to 2018 (6·27% per year). The leading sources of DAH were the USA and private philanthropy (excluding corporate donations and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation). For the first time, we included estimates of China's contribution to DAH ($644·7 million in 2018). Globally, health spending is projected to increase to $15·0 trillion (14·0–16·0) by 2050 (reaching 9·4% [7·6–11·3] of the global economy and $21·3 trillion [19·8–23·1] in purchasing-power parity-adjusted dollars), but at a lower growth rate of 1·84% (1·68–2·02) annually, and with continuing disparities in spending between countries. In 2050, we estimate that 0·6% (0·6–0·7) of health spending will occur in currently low-income countries, despite these countries comprising an estimated 15·7% of the global population by 2050. The ratio between per capita health spending in high-income and low-income countries was 130·2 (122·9–136·9) in 2016 and is projected to remain at similar levels in 2050 (125·9 [113·7–138·1]). The decomposition analysis identified governments’ increased prioritisation of the health sector and economic development as the strongest factors associated with increases in government health spending globally. Future government health spending scenarios suggest that, with greater prioritisation of the health sector and increased government spending, health spending per capita could more than double, with greater impacts in countries that currently have the lowest levels of government health spending.InterpretationFinancing for global health has increased steadily over the past two decades and is projected to continue increasing in the future, although at a slower pace of growth and with persistent disparities in per-capita health spending between countries. Out-of-pocket spending is projected to remain substantial outside of high-income countries. Many low-income countries are expected to remain dependent on development assistance, although with greater government spending, larger investments in health are feasible. In the absence of sustained new investments in health, increasing efficiency in health spending is essential to meet global health targets.FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Putting public health back into the global cancer agenda

Development assistance for health: past trends, associations, and the future of international financial flows for health

Universal access to health care across the life course

What's going on at the World Health Organization?

The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted gaps in health surveillance systems, disease prevention, and treatment globally. Among the many factors that might have led to these gaps is the issue of the financing of national health systems, especially in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), as well as a robust global system for pandemic preparedness. We aimed to provide a comparative assessment of global health spending at the onset of the pandemic; characterise the amount of development assistance for pandemic preparedness and response disbursed in the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic; and examine expectations for future health spending and put into context the expected need for investment in pandemic preparedness. In this analysis of global health spending between 1990 and 2021, and prediction from 2021 to 2026, we estimated four sources of health spending: development assistance for health (DAH), government spending, out-of-pocket spending, and prepaid private spending across 204 countries and territories. We used the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)'s Creditor Reporting System (CRS) and the WHO Global Health Expenditure Database (GHED) to estimate spending. We estimated development assistance for general health, COVID-19 response, and pandemic preparedness and response using a keyword search. Health spending estimates were combined with estimates of resources needed for pandemic prevention and preparedness to analyse future health spending patterns, relative to need. In 2019, at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, US$9·2 trillion (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 9·1-9·3) was spent on health worldwide. We found great disparities in the amount of resources devoted to health, with high-income countries spending $7·3 trillion (95% UI 7·2-7·4) in 2019; 293·7 times the $24·8 billion (95% UI 24·3-25·3) spent by low-income countries in 2019. That same year, $43·1 billion in development assistance was provided to maintain or improve health. The pandemic led to an unprecedented increase in development assistance targeted towards health; in 2020 and 2021, $1·8 billion in DAH contributions was provided towards pandemic preparedness in LMICs, and $37·8 billion was provided for the health-related COVID-19 response. Although the support for pandemic preparedness is 12·2% of the recommended target by the High-Level Independent Panel (HLIP), the support provided for the health-related COVID-19 response is 252·2% of the recommended target. Additionally, projected spending estimates suggest that between 2022 and 2026, governments in 17 (95% UI 11-21) of the 137 LMICs will observe an increase in national government health spending equivalent to an addition of 1% of GDP, as recommended by the HLIP. There was an unprecedented scale-up in DAH in 2020 and 2021. We have a unique opportunity at this time to sustain funding for crucial global health functions, including pandemic preparedness. However, historical patterns of underfunding of pandemic preparedness suggest that deliberate effort must be made to ensure funding is maintained. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

HIV and NCDs: the need to build stronger health systems

Equity in Global Health Research.