World Economic Prospects Monthly

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Overview: Steady recovery shows no signs of slowing ▀ We expect the solid and broad‐based world recovery to continue, and still see a slight pick‐up in global GDP growth from 2.9% this year to 3.0% in 2018, unchanged from a month ago. This points to the most sustained period of robust global growth since the initial recovery from the financial crisis. ▀ Purchasing managers' surveys suggest that growth in advanced economies strengthened further through the summer. By contrast, the available data suggest that industrial production in some of the advanced economies weakened last quarter, and world trade went through a soft patch in early summer. ▀ But US industrial output will have been dampened by the recent hurricanes, while the Eurozone figures are often volatile in the summer months. And the limited trade data for the latter part of Q3 point to a reacceleration in trade growth. On balance, we expect the solid pace of global growth in H1 to be maintained in H2. ▀ The broad‐based global economic strength has coincided with a slightly more hawkish tone from some central banks. We now see the Fed raising US interest rates in December – in addition to the two hikes already pencilled in for 2018 – reflecting its apparent desire for a slightly faster pace of normalisation in order to avoid potentially more aggressive rate hikes later in the cycle. Meanwhile, the Bank of England is expected to raise interest rates in November. ▀ While the Fed's stance and Eurozone political developments have led the euro to weaken against the US dollar, we think further sustained falls in the euro are unlikely in an environment where the Eurozone continues to record well‐above‐trend growth and underlying inflation pressures is gradually building. ▀ Q2's strong performance in many emerging markets (EMs) was probably sustained in Q3. Despite EM assets recently coming under pressure, we still expect them to be resilient to Fed tightening, supported by firmer commodity prices, still‐attractive carry and, more importantly, a widening growth differential over advanced economies.