WMO Typhoon Landfall Forecast Demonstration Projects (WMO-TLFDP) —Concept and Progress

Abstract

ABSTRACT The World Expo 2010 was successfully held in Shanghai from May to October 2010. Activities related to the Expo were spread out in the Eastern China. To provide a better typhoon landfall forecast service for the Expo and to demonstrate the most advanced typhoon forecast techniques in the world, the “WMO Typhoon Landfall Forecast Demonstration Project (WMO-TLFDP)” began in May 2010 and will end in December 2012. It is a component of the Shanghai Multi-Hazard Early Warning System Project. Significant progresses have been made. First, the WMO-TLFDP Training Workshop on Tropical Cyclone Forecasting was held successfully in Shanghai, China during 24-28 May, 2010. Second. a total of 13 typhoon forecast product providers have participated in the project by providing real-time forecast products. Third, typhoon track, intensity and rainfall forecasts are verified in both real time and post season manners. Fourth, products of the project are disseminated through the project’s website ( http://tlfdp.typhoon.gov.cn ) and the operational website of the Shanghai Typhoon Warning Center. Finally, all the data and products of named tropical cyclones since May 2010 are archived by the Regional Meteorological Center of Eastern China, which are available to research, training and capacity-building activities. It is demonstrated that current operational models are valuable in providing guidance to the forecast of not only track, but also intensity and heavy rainfall of tropical cyclones. Consensus techniques and ensemble prediction systems are promising in assisting the forecasters and decision makers to provide better tropical cyclone forecast and warning service. The WMO-TLFDP has supported effectively the forecasters and typhoon-related weather services during the World EXPO 2010, and it will continue to promote the implementation of the most advanced typhoon forecast techniques among the members of ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee, which ultimately will be of benefit to other WMO Members as well.