Operational Tropical Cyclone Forecast Verification Practice in the Western North Pacific Region

Abstract

ABSTRACT This paper summarizes results of a survey of the operational status of tropical cyclone (TC) forecast verification in the western North Pacific region, covering the Members of the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee, RSMC Tokyo - Typhoon Center, and JTWC. Results of the survey indicate that significant efforts have been focused on the verification of TC forecast guidance by operational forecast agencies in the region, either individually or through international cooperation. A variety of TC forecast verification products are available to the forecasters in either real time or in post-season through multiple means, with the main focus on the deterministic track and intensity forecasts. Only a few verification products are available for probabilistic forecasts. Verification of TC precipitation and high wind forecasts are also lacking sufficient attention in the region. It would be helpful in the future to focus more attention toward these aspects and incorporate methods that will provide a greater depth of information regarding the TC forecast performance.