Abstract
BackgroundData from the Compulsory Scrapie Flocks Scheme (CSFS), part of the compulsory eradication measures for the control of scrapie in the EU, have been used to estimate the within-holding prevalence of classical scrapie in Great Britain (GB). Specifically data from one of the testing routes within the CSFS have been used; the initial cull (IC), whereby two options can be applied: the whole flock cull option by which the entire flock is depopulated, and the genotyping and cull of certain genotypes.ResultsBetween April 2005 and September 2007, 25,316 suitable samples, submitted from 411 flocks in 213 scrapie-affected holdings in Great Britain, were tested for scrapie. The predicted within-holding prevalence for the initial cull was 0.65% (95% CI: 0.55–0.75). For the whole cull option was 0.47% (95% CI: 0.32–0.68) and for the genotype and cull or mixed option (both options applied in different flocks of the same holding), the predicted within-holding prevalence was 0.7% (95% CI: 0.6–0.83). There were no significant differences in the within-flock prevalence between countries (England, Scotland and Wales) or between CSFS holdings by the surveillance stream that detected the index case. The number of CSFS flocks on a holding did not affect the overall within-holding prevalence of classical scrapie.ConclusionThese estimates are important in the discussion of the epidemiological implications of the current EU testing programme of scrapie-affected flocks and to inform epidemiological and mathematical models. Furthermore, these estimates may provide baseline data to assist the design of future surveillance activities and control policies with the aim to increase their efficiency.
Highlights
Data from the Compulsory Scrapie Flocks Scheme (CSFS), part of the compulsory eradication measures for the control of scrapie in the EU, have been used to estimate the withinholding prevalence of classical scrapie in Great Britain (GB)
transmissible spongiform encephalopathies (TSE) testing commenced for the fallen stock (FS) almost immediately after the launch of the scheme whereas the sampling and testing in the initial cull (IC) began on April 1st 2005
The number of CSFS flocks on a holding does not affect the overall prevalence of scrapie
Summary
Data from the Compulsory Scrapie Flocks Scheme (CSFS), part of the compulsory eradication measures for the control of scrapie in the EU, have been used to estimate the withinholding prevalence of classical scrapie in Great Britain (GB). The increasing concern that BSE could be present in the sheep population triggered further epidemiological and pathogenesis studies in accordance with recommendations from expert committees [6,7]. It was BSE rather than scrapie that was viewed as a potential threat to public health. Despite the unknown origin of BSE, and major gaps in scientific understanding of the basic biology of TSEs [8], there have been some attempts to quantify the dimension of the public health threat with the available data [9,10,11,12]
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