WITHDRAWN: The Impact of Industrial Structure Evolution on Fiscal Revenue in Shenzhen China

Abstract

Adjustment, optimization and upgrading of industrial structure is one of the important indicators that affect local fiscal revenue. To explore the relationship between industrial structure and local fiscal revenue is the basis for industrial policy formulation and fiscal expenditure arrangement and an important issue in the field of structural economics. This paper aims at exploring the inherent regularity public fiscal revenue and the upgrading of industrial structure in the process of urban economic development. We utilize data from 1996 to 2020 in the “Shenzhen Statistical Yearbook” and employ Bayesian structure time series (BSTS) model to analyze the effect of industrial structure evolution on fiscal revenue in Shenzhen. The tax revenue data is used to represent Shenzhen's fiscal revenue and the ratio of the tertiary to secondary industry added values is used to represent industrial structure evolution index. Our findings demonstrate that the impact of Shenzhen's industrial structure evolution on fiscal revenue shows a steady and positive trend from 2000 to 2004. Then it significantly increases to a peak in 2006 and goes downward. After 2017, the evolution of Shenzhen's industrial structure has negative impact on the overall fiscal revenue. Based on the results, this paper puts forward relevant policy implications for other cities in China to promote the transformation and upgrading of industrial structures.