Wind-solar micro grid reliability evaluation based on sequential Monte Carlo

Abstract

As fossil fuels become less and less, renewable power generations such as wind and solar energy have been regarded as a current trend. However, their intermittent nature and instable output will greatly influence the stability of power system. In order to verify wind-solar hybrid generation system can greatly improve the stability of the micro grid. The study presents and analyzes the output models of wind and solar energy, then verifies by Monte Carlo sampling to get the distribution of wind energy and solar energy are consistent with Weibull and Beta distribution. Finally, micro grid power generation system with wind-solar energy is analyzed to assess the reliability indices including loss of energy expectation (LOEE) and loss of load expectation (LOLE) by sequential Monte Carlo method, the simulation results show that the parallel power generation with solar and wind energy enables to effectively improve the stability of the micro grid system.