Wind power forecasting based on manifold learning and a double-layer SWLSTM model

Abstract

With the increase of wind power installed capacity, wind energy is playing an increasingly important role in power grids. However, this also aggravates the volatility of a power grid. Accurate wind power prediction is particularly important for grid dispatching and grid connection modes. However, the existing forecasting methods mostly consider the meteorological environmental factors and historical power data and do not consider the impact of wind turbine generator parameters. Therefore, this study proposes a double-layer Shared Weight Long Short-Term Memory Network (SWLSTM) prediction model based on manifold learning considering meteorological environment factors, wind turbine generator parameters, and historical wind power. First, 17 indicators such as meteorological environment factors and wind turbine parameters are determined as influencing factors to construct high-dimensional data sets. Second, manifold learning is used to reduce the dimension of high-dimensional data sets and determine the best dimension reduction. The data after dimensionality reduction and historical wind power are used as the input of the prediction model. Finally, considering the influence of errors on the prediction results, a double-layer SWLSTM prediction model is constructed. The double-layer model is constructed simultaneously, and the final power prediction result is obtained by adding the prediction error of the lower model and the prediction wind power of the upper model. Moreover, a wind farm in Xinjiang is used to verify the effectiveness of the proposed prediction model. The results show that the prediction strategy and the model proposed in this paper have high prediction accuracy.