Wind Damage and Temperature Effect on Tree Mortality Caused by Ips typographus L.: Phase Transition Model

Vladislav Soukhovolsky,Anton Kovalev,Olga Tarasova,Jaroslav Rožnovský,Roman Modlinger,Rastislav Jakuš,Jaroslav Škvarenina,Pavel Mezei,Andrej Majdák,Nataliya Korolyova,Zdenka Křenová

doi:10.3390/f13020180

Abstract

The aim of this study was to develop methods for constructing a simple model describing tree mortality caused by Ips typographus L. using a minimum number of variables. We developed a model for areas spanning natural mountain forests in the Tatra National Park (Slovakia) and the Šumava National Park (Czech Republic), and in managed Czech forests located in four areas varying in environmental conditions. The model describes the time series of tree mortality dynamics caused by I.typographus using two submodels: a long-term dynamics submodel, and a short-term dynamics autoregressive distributed lag(ADL) model incorporating a two year delay and temperature variable averaged over the April-May period. The quality of fit for our models (R2 value) ranged from 0.87 to 0.91. The model was formulated to capture the average monthly temperature effect, a key weather factor. We found that for high-elevation stands located at least 1000 ma.s.l., forest damage was predominantly influenced by May temperatures. For lower-elevation managed forests with warmer climates, the weather effect was insignificant.

Highlights

Outbreaks of xylophagous insects, one of the key economically important pests affecting coniferous stands, are typical for forests of Scandinavia, North of the European part of Russia, and mountain forests of Central Europe [1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10]
Developed a model for spatial prediction of bark beetle attack; a system for the prediction of bark beetle population dynamics, or space- and time-related tree mortality caused by bark beetles, is missing
We would like to contribute to future considerations, by way of time- and space-related reliable prediction systems for bark beetle population dynamics or tree mortality caused by bark beetles

Summary

Introduction

One of the key economically important pests affecting coniferous stands, are typical for forests of Scandinavia, North of the European part of Russia, and mountain forests of Central Europe [1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10]. The reported increase in frequency of bark beetle outbreaks has been attributed to climate warming [4,7,8,10,17,20,27,28,29]. These factors have been incorporated in various models of bark beetle population dynamics and outbreak risk assessments [3,5,8,30,31,32,33,34,35,36,37,38]. Ďuračiová et al [39]

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