Wind Conditions in a Fjordlike Bay and Predictions of Wind Speed Using Neighboring Stations Employing Neural Network Models

Abstract

AbstractThis paper evaluates the applicability of neural networks for estimating wind speeds at various target locations using neighboring reference locations along the south coast of Newfoundland, Canada. The stations were chosen to cover a variety of topographic features and span distances in excess of 100 km. The goal of the study is to provide a general description of the summer wind conditions along the south coast of Newfoundland and to assess the potential application of neural networks for wind speed predictions. Analysis of wind data from July to October showed the wind going dominantly toward the northeast with speeds ranging from 0 to 45 m s−1. The efficacy of neural networks to predict wind speeds varied among stations and was largely influenced by the presence/absence of wind barriers. Sensitivity analysis on neural network performance concluded that an absolute minimum of 3000 h of continuous monitoring is needed to effectively train neural networks to predict wind speeds. The conclusions of this study have implications for future work utilizing wind speed data where a generalization of uniform wind speeds is assumed.