Wind and Wind Power Ramp Variability over Northern Mexico

Abstract

The seasonal and diurnal variability of the wind resource in Northern Mexico is examined. Fourteen weather stations were grouped according to the terrain morphology and weather systems that affect the region to evaluate the impact on wind ramps and high wind persistent events. Four areas driven by weather systems seasonality are identified. Wind power ramps and persistent generation events are produced by cold fronts in winter, while mesoscale convective systems and local circulations are dominant in summer. Moreover, the 2013 wind forecast of the Rapid Refresh Model (RAP) and the North American Mesoscale Forecast System (NAM) forecast systems were also assessed. In general, both systems have less ability to predict mesoscale events and local circulations over complex topography, underestimating strong winds and overestimating weak winds. Wind forecast variations in the mesoscale range are smoother than observations due to the effects of spatial and temporal averaging, producing fewer wind power ramps and longer lasting generation events. The study carried out shows the importance of evaluating operational models in terms of wind variability, wind power ramps and persistence events to improve the regional wind forecast. The characteristics of weather systems and topography of Mexico requires model refinements for proper management of the wind resource.