Associating Synoptic-Scale Weather Patterns with Aggregated Offshore Wind Power Production and Ramps

Bedassa R Cheneka,Sukanta Basu,Simon J Watson

doi:10.3390/en14133903

Abstract

Large-scale weather patterns and their variability can influence both the amount of wind power production and its temporal variation, i.e., wind power ramps. In this study, we use a self-organizing map to cluster hourly sea level pressure into a discrete number of weather patterns. The dependency of wind power production and wind power ramps on these weather patterns is studied for the Belgian offshore wind farm fleet. A newly developed wavelet-surrogate ramp-detection algorithm is used for the identification of wind power ramps. It was observed that low-pressure systems, southwesterly and northeasterly wind flows are often associated with high levels of wind power production. Regarding wind power ramps, the type of transition between weather patterns was shown to determine whether ramp up or ramp down events would occur. Ramp up events tend to occur due to the transition from a high-pressure to a low-pressure system, or the weakening of the intensity of a deep low-pressure system. The reverse is associated with ramp down events.

Highlights

The total European wind power capacity reached 220 GW in 2020 [1]
We demonstrate the application of a self-organizing map (SOM) to classify weather patterns over the North Sea
The advantage of the SOM is shown in its ability to classify similar weather circulation patterns close together in the map allowing a higher-level overview of the prevailing weather systems

Summary

Introduction

The total European wind power capacity reached 220 GW in 2020 [1]. During the same period, offshore wind power capacity increased significantly from 4 GW to 25 GW. According to WindEurope’s ’high scenario’, up to 100 GW of wind power capacity could be installed offshore by 2030 [2]. This capacity of wind power will present new challenges for network operators seeking to balance supply and demand where a significant fraction of that supply comes from a non-dispatchable form of energy generation over a large area some distance from the load in many cases. Wind speed and associated wind power ramps are influenced by both mesoscale and large-scale meteorological phenomena which cover a range of spatial and temporal scales [3,4,5,6,7]. Large-scale synoptic systems comprise extra-tropical cyclones, troughs, ridges and frontal systems, cover hundreds of km and persist over timescales of several days

Methods

Results

Conclusion