Will the United States come to Taiwan’s defense? Analysis of public opinion in Taiwan and the United States

Abstract

Abstract If conflict breaks out between Taiwan and China, would the United States come to the island’s defense? China’s growing assertiveness in the region and aggressive military activities around Taiwan have renewed interest in this decades-old question. This study examines the issue by employing two surveys, one conducted in Taiwan and another in the United States. Results of the Taiwan survey indicate that while a majority of Taiwan citizens do indeed believe the United States would help defend Taiwan if it were attacked by China, five types of respondents—idealists, pragmatists, democracy skeptics, political realists, and pessimists—can be discerned, each with a distinctive pattern of reasoning. Findings from the US survey reveal that while Americans mostly hold positive views of Taiwan, there is little consensus on the preferred US military response in the event of a Chinese attack. These analyses contribute to the existing literature on evolving public opinion in Taiwan and the United States concerning the possibility of armed conflict in the Taiwan Strait.