Will the carbon neutrality target impact China's energy security? A dynamic Bayesian network model

Abstract

Efforts to reach the target of carbon neutrality create uncertainty about future energy security in China. This paper predicts the future state of energy security on the path to achieving carbon neutrality. A dynamic Bayesian network model is proposed to describe the dynamic causal relationship between China's energy security and its influencing indicators, including a carbon neutrality factor. The results reveal that, under the carbon neutrality scenario, energy security is expected to be in a Poor state in 2030, with improvement to a Poor+ state in 2040, 2050, and 2060. The energy security state is expected to remain in a Poor state in 2030, 2040, 2050, and 2060 under the existing policy scenario. Carbon neutrality has a small negative impact on energy security in the short term, and a positive impact in the long term. The energy security state is not expected to be fundamentally improved under carbon neutrality scenario because the four dimensions of energy security may not achieve balanced development. These dimensions include availability, applicability, acceptability, and affordability. Crude oil distillation capacity, crude oil price, and coal price are expected to have the greatest impact on energy security.