Research on China's energy security evaluation oriented by environmental monitoring in the dual carbon background

Abstract

Aiming at the particularity of China's energy security in the context of "carbon neutrality" and "carbon peaking" with reference to EISD, this research constructs China's energy security indicator system covering three dimensions of society, economy and environment. The assessment relies on principal component analysis to evaluate China's energy security indicator from 1985 to 2017 and uses the ARMA model to predict the development trend of China's energy security indicator from 2018 to 2025 at the same time. The empirical results show that China's energy security indicator expressed a U-shaped development from 1985 to 2025 and China's energy security indicator showed a positive growth trend from 2018 to 2025. The conclusions and recommendations are as follows: Although China's energy security indicator is showing a trend of positive growth, there is still a large room for improvement in the overall level of China's energy security; the general industrial structure needs to be optimized and adjusted; and the implementation of environmental protection work should be further strengthened. This research has a positive contribution to environmental monitoring as well.