Wildland-urban interface typologies prone to high severity fires in Spain

Abstract

Due to complex interactions between climate and land use changes, large forest fires have increased in frequency and severity over the last decades, impacting dramatically on biodiversity and society. In southern European countries affected by demographic challenges, fire risk and danger play special relevance at the wildland-urban interfaces (WUIs), where decision-making and land management have strong socio-ecological implications. WUIs have been historically typified according to both fire occurrence probability and settlement vulnerability, but those classifications lack generality regarding fire regime components. We aim to develop an integrated and comprehensive scheme for identifying the WUI typologies most at risk to fire severity across large territories. We selected fourteen large wildfires (over than 500 ha) occurred in Spain (2016–2021) containing different WUI scenarios. First, based on a building cartography and a multi-temporal series of Sentinel-2 imagery, each WUI was delimited and spatially characterized according to building density and pre-fire fuel characteristics (type, amount, and structure). Afterwards, a decision tree regression model was applied to identify the most relevant pre-fire vegetation parameters driving burn severity. The combined effect of the selected pre-fire vegetation drivers and the building density patterns on fire severity was evaluated using linear mixed models. Finally, the WUI typologies most prone to high burn severity were recognized using Tukey post-hoc tests. Results indicated that building density, land cover class and vegetation cover fraction determined fire severity in areas close to human settlements. Specifically, isolated, scattered and sparsely clustered buildings enclosed in a high-cover shrub matrix were the WUI typologies most susceptible to high-severity fires. These findings contribute to the development of appropriate strategies to minimize the risk of severe fires in WUIs and avoid potential losses of multiple ecosystem services valuable for society.