Wicked problems in real time: Uncertainty, information, and the escalation of Ebola

Abstract

The escalation of Ebola from December, 2013 - December, 2014, represents a classic wicked problem. Logical steps taken to limit the disease encountered unexpected responses and failed to curb the rapidly escalating transmission. As Ebola escalated, the scale of inter-organizational response exceede d the capacity of organizations at different jurisdictional levels of operation that had responsibilities for health emergencies. We examine the lack of information that hampered early recognition of risk, consequent failures in communication that fueled the escalation of Ebola, and the sobering lack of capacity in public organizations to stop the spread of Ebola. We use a complex adaptive systems framework to examine interactions among organizations, process tracing of key decisions, and network analysis based on data coded from the United Nations Relief Web situation reports to identify the networks of actors engaged in this response. Through the networks, we trace the information flow that gradually lessened uncertainty, informed local actors, and contributed to the eventual containment of the disease. We conclude that timely, valid information mobilized through a complex, adaptive system of systems serves a primary role in creating a basis for collective action to mitigate the uncertainty, misinformation, and mistrust that spurred the escalation of the Ebola disease.