Abstract
AbstractPurposeIn the context of modernization and development, a complex adaptive systems framework can help address the coupling of macro social constraint and opportunity with individual agency. Combining system dynamics and agent based modeling, we formalize a simulation approach of the Human Development (HD) perspective to explore the interactive effects of economics, culture, society and politics across multiple human scales.MethodsBased on a system of asymmetric, coupled nonlinear equations, we first capture the core qualitative logic of HD theory, empirically validated from World Values Survey (WVS) data. Using a simple evolutionary game approach, second we fuse endogenously derived individual socio-economic attribute changes with Prisoner’s Dilemma in an agent based model of the interactive political-cultural effects of heterogeneous, spatial intra-societal economic transactions. We then explore a new human development dynamics (HDD) model behavior via quasi-global simulation methods to identify paths and pitfalls towards economic development, cultural plasticity, social and political change behavior.ResultsOur preliminary results suggest strong nonlinear path dependence and complexity in three areas: adaptive development processes, co-evolutionary societal transactions and near equilibrium development trajectories, with significant implications for anticipating and managing positive development outcomes. Strong local epistatic interactions characterized by adaptive co-evolution, shape higher order global conditions and ultimately societal outcomes.ConclusionsTechno-social simulations such as this can provide scholars and policymakers alike insights into the nonlinear, complex adaptive effects of societal co-evolution. We believe complex adaptive or evolutionary systems approaches are necessary to understand both near and potentially catastrophic, far-from-equilibrium behavior and societal outcomes across all human scales of modernization.
Highlights
Since the turn of the 20th century, social scientists have identified dynamic linkages between economic development, cultural change, and political development with popularized arguments for and against modernization (Huntington 1996; Chua 2003; Sachs 2005)
As macroscopic structures emerging from microscopic events lead to entrainment and modification of both, co-evolutionary processes are created over time (Prigogine and Stengers 1984)
The genetic algorithm non-linear least squares (GANLS) three step approach (Coan 2011) first employs a genetic algorithm to search global parameter space, a simplex algorithm to search local parameters space, and a bootstrapping procedure to derive the uncertainty associated with the parameter estimates
Summary
Since the turn of the 20th century, social scientists have identified dynamic linkages between economic development, cultural change, and political development with popularized arguments for and against modernization (Huntington 1996; Chua 2003; Sachs 2005). Positive feedback mechanisms shift seemingly stable system phenomena towards complexity and catastrophic, far-from-equilibria conditions (Thom 1977; Cambel 1993; Arthur 1994a, b;) Such events force our current scientific understanding to change perhaps radically, considering new possibilities and outcomes that integrate explanations across previously disparate fields. Human Development Dynamics (HDD) approach where agency matters: individual game interactions, strategy decisions and outcome histories determine an individual’s experience. These decisions are constrained or incentivized by the changing macro economic, cultural, social and political environment via HD theory, conditioned on individual attributes at any particular time. Progress on economic development, the formation of cultural mores, societal norms and democratic preferences emerge from individuals’ behavior interactions
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
