Why the Basic Axioms of Risk Assessment Can Be Problematic to Identify Risk? – The Development of the VUCA Meter

Abstract

The VUCA world is the epitome of the challenges linked with some of the undercurrents currently shaping businesses in the projectified society. The terms Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity and Ambiguity (VUCA) are used as descriptive for the continuous flux project managers and project planners are forced to keep at bay. In this article, the authors present an idea to connect the VUCA concept as a risk identification platform to access, identify and isolate low-probability but high-impact events often called black swans or fat tail events. It is argued that the assumptions of conventional risk assessment in the domain of project management can lead to skewed general outcomes due to limitations of the intellect to assess probability. The outline of the VUCA meter is drafted and argued that the meter can augment the conventional risk assessment approach.