Why Mexico Is Not on the Brink

Abstract

Abstract: This essay contests the narrative of democratic regression in Mexico, arguing instead that Mexico's democracy demonstrates exceptional resilience. Although there have been concerns about intolerance to criticism, centralization of power, and control of independent institutions during President Andrés Manuel López Obrador's time in office (2018–2024), Mexico's democratic foundations have remained solid. Mexico's resilience is evident in its ability to conduct mostly free and fair elections, the acceptance of electoral losses by its political actors, the country's general freedom of speech and association, and the safeguarding of liberal institutions despite polarization and misinformation. This article also explains the reasons behind the victory of Claudia Sheinbaum, the first female president of Mexico, and describes factors that may reduce the likelihood of democratic erosion (a stronger opposition, internal party fragmentation, diminished populist charisma, and institutional constraints) or increase it (organized crime, militarization, and pervasive social injustices) during her presidency (2024–2030).