Why it is rational to expect the horrible – The future of humanity and climate change

Abstract

Climate change poses a challenge to bioethics due to overpopulation and a declining quality of life, among other factors. In this article, we discuss four scenarios of possible human development in the near future. Two of them are horrible scenarios. One of them assumes that living conditions will significantly deteriorate and people will live in great poverty. The second of the horrible scenarios is one in which a large part of humanity will die. Two other, non-horrible scenarios offer more optimism, either because of faith in technological capabilities, or because of faith in the development of human solidarity and social justice. In this article, we show why rational calculation suggests considering the horrible scenarios as the most realistic.