Why forecast for the long term? Here are some ways to anticipate future events and reduce the risk of surprise developments.

Abstract

Too often, long‐range environmental forecasting is ignored in order to cut costs. But long‐range forecasting can actually reduce costs and win new markets ahead of the competition. For example, Sears removed flammable nightwear and substituted nonflammable nightwear long before government action made this a requirement. S. C. Johnson and Sons eliminated environmentally risky fluorocarbons from its aerosol sprays three years before the government forced competing firms to comply. Both firms were able to reduce substantially their costs of compliance and avoided the criticism from public‐spirited groups that was directed toward their competitors.