Why Does a Stronger El Niño Favor Developing towards the Eastern Pacific while a Stronger La Niña Favors Developing towards the Central Pacific?

Abstract

By decomposing observed El Niño and La Niña events into a strong group and a weak group, respectively, we discovered that the strong La Niña group has its peak center more towards the west compared to the weak La Niña group, whereas the strong El Niño group has its peak center more towards the east compared to the weak El Niño group. The cause of this structure asymmetry is investigated through an ocean mixed-layer heat budget analysis. It was found that the asymmetry is closely linked to the longitudinal distribution of SST anomaly (SSTA) skewness along the equator, and is fundamentally caused by nonlinear dynamic heating, especially nonlinear horizontal temperature advection. It was demonstrated that near the equatorial central Pacific, the anomalous zonal and meridional currents generate negative nonlinear zonal and meridional temperature advection anomalies for both the El Niño and La Niña events, thus favoring a stronger La Niña and a weaker El Niño. Over the eastern Pacific, due to the dominant geostrophic zonal current anomalies and the southward shift of SSTA centers, nonlinear horizontal temperature advection anomalies tend to be positive for both the El Niño and La Niña, thus favoring a stronger growth of El Niño than La Niña. Nonlinear vertical temperature advection anomalies play minor roles in the central Pacific and tend to partially offset the nonlinear horizontal advection effect in the equatorial eastern Pacific.