‘Why are the Sales Forecasts so low?’ Socio-Technical Challenges of Using Machine Learning for Forecasting Sales in a Bakery

Abstract

Artificial intelligence and the underlying machine learning (ML) methods are increasingly finding their way into our working world. One of these areas is sales planning, where machine learning is used to leverage a variety of different input parameters such as prices, promotions, or the weather, to forecast sales, and therefore directly affects the production of products and goods. To satisfy the goal of environmental sustainability as well as address short shelf life, the food industry represents an interesting application field for the use of ML for optimizing sales planning. Within this paper, we will examine the design, and especially the application, of ML methods in the food industry and show the current challenges that exist in the use of such concepts and technologies from the end-user’s point of view. Our study of a smaller bakery company shows that there are enormous challenges in setting up the appropriate infrastructure and processes for the implementation of ML, that the output quality of ML processes does not always match the perceived result quality, and that trust in the functioning of the algorithms is the most important criterion for using ML processes in practice.